NFL Playoff Power Rankings: Week 16

            Can we just eliminate the NFC East from pro football?  It’s unquestionably the most annoying division, getting a staggering amount of airtime on national television, and the first thing the talking heads discuss on Monday morning is either Jerry Jones or RGIII.  After another woeful weekend in which football’s supposedly “toughest” division went 0-4 and gave up an average of 34 points per game, the NFC “Least” once again retains the crown of “Most Overrated” in all of sports, followed closely by Mel Kiper’s draft preview, Dwayne Wade’s likability, and professional sports in Los Angeles.  Here are playoff power rankings for Week 16:

AFC Playoffs

1. Denver Broncos (11-3; projected 13-3): They may have lost by only seven points last Thursday, but Broncos fans will tell you that the real effects of the San Diego game aren’t felt in the win-loss column.  The Chargers confirmed all every Denver skeptic’s strongest suspicions: That Peyton Manning can’t throw 15 yards or more downfield in the cold; that the running game cannot be trusted (18 total yards against a team giving up an AFC-worst 4.7 yards per carry); that Wes Welker’s absence is much more significant than anyone thought; and that the defense cannot get off the field in pressure situations (38:49 possession time for San Diego).  Defenders will say that Denver played on a short week against a hungry opponent, but realists will point to the fact that in January, every opponent is hungry (ask the 2012 Baltimore Ravens).  Trips to Oakland and Houston are the best presents anyone in Denver will receive this Christmas.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (9-5; projected 11-5): So the Broncos lose, the Patriots lose, the Dolphins and Ravens win huge games to move within a game of the Bengals, and what does Cincinnati promptly do?  Get blown out by the Stealers, naturally (and somehow move up a spot in my playoff power rankings?!)  Although Cincinnati typically doesn’t play well in Pittsburgh (without the help of God’s Kicker), going 2 for 10 on third downs and allowing 80 percent completions to Big Ben is inexcusable.  Andy Dalton now has a lower QBR (52.8) than any other QB of a team leading its division, and the Bengals finish 2013 going a paltry 3-5 on the road.  They have a favorable home schedule down the stretch (Minnesota hasn’t won in Cincinnati since 1992), but their long-term playoff prospects aren’t exactly solid.

3. New England Patriots (10-4; projected 11-5): The “glass half full” mentality says that the Pats were able to move the ball through the air without Gronk (453 total yards), and lord knows New England would much rather see the Dolphins in Foxboro in January than the Ravens.  I think.  We’ll know more next week when Patriots fans stock up on Melatonin from the drug store and watch Tom Brady have another 3 interception game against Baltimore.  At least the Ravens don’t have to worry about making season-endinghitssince our best offensive weapon is already injured. Look, the wins against New Orleans, Denver and Cleveland were magical, but let’s get real: This team can’t win the Super Bowl.  There’s simply not enough talent, and no real potential for anyone other than Brady to step up and put the entire team on his shoulders.  Let’s just move on to January so when I get my heart broken for yet another year, it will at least be expected.

4. Indianapolis Colts (9-5; projected 10-6): The Colts’ 22-point win over the Texans was their first victory by more than 8 points since September 29 (not coincidentally, the last time they rushed for 150+ yards prior to Sunday).  It’s difficult to assess their performance because it wasn’t against exactly formidable competition, but it was nice to see Andrew Luck not lead his team in rushing for once, and the Colts’ secondary was superb in shutting Andre Johnson down (although the Texans kinda shot themselves in the foot with 14 penalties for 114 yards). We’ll see if any momentum can carry over to next Sunday’s trip to Kansas City, but at this point, Indianapolis has little to play for other than the 3 seed.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (11-3; projected 12-4): Two weeks ago, we were talking about this team being easy playoff fodder for the Colts in Indianapolis in the Wild Card Round.  It’s crazy how quickly things change, although that’s what consecutive weeks against the Redskins’ and Raiders’ defenses will do.  Like the Alex Smith’s 49ers team in 2011, the Chiefs lead the league in takeaways and giveaways, and although he somehow only rushed for 20 yards Sunday, Jamal Charles has to be considered the most dangerous runningback in football.  I could see a 2008 Larry Fitzgerald-likeplayoff run for Charles in an AFC playoff environment that suddenly looks wide open. They have an excellent opportunity to gain some playoff momentum with upcoming games against the Colts and Chiefs, and perhaps not having a playoff bye will keep the intensity and focus intact.  I’m buying into this team.

6. Baltimore Ravens (8-6; projected 9-7): Just how big was Justin Tucker’s game-saving leg Monday night?  The Ravens now have a reasonable chance of earning the AFC’s 2 seed… but could still miss the playoffs altogether.  Like last year, they are turning it on at the right time with their fourth straight win, and with victories in their next two weeks, their last three games will have been against playoff teams.  Reggie Bush’s 14-yard scamper in the first quarter was only the fourth rushing TD Baltimore has given up all year (an NFL-low).  Sunday’s game against the Patriots should be a classic, and there is little doubt in my pessimistic brain they will win on a last-second Hail Mary or something.  That leaves the season finale at Cincinnati, where the Bengals still have not lost all season.  If they win there, the only thing worse than being the AFC’s 3 seed is being forced to watch Home Alone 2 on repeat on the AMCnetwork.

In Contention

Miami Dolphins (8-6; projected 9-7): The Dolphins are the AFC’s version of the Cardinals – that surprising team that will miss the playoffs because of the stupid 8 and 9-win division leaders that will instead get in.  I suppose I should predict them to beat the Bills and the Jets (not exactly the league’s toughest teams) but it’s hard to favor the inevitably tragic Dolphins over the defending Super Bowl champs.  This leads to an interesting question: Who do the Dolphins root for in this Sunday’s Pats-Ravens game?  Maybe a tie?  Or Ray Lewis to indefinitely delay the game by stealing the mic from Jim Nantz?

San Diego Chargers (7-7; projected 9-7): On Thursday night, San Diego played the most impressive game of any NFL team in 2013.  They dominated the line of scrimmage.  They assaulted Peyton Manning and the Denver running game.  They did it in cold weather, on national TV, and against the league’s best team.  The cards are seriously stacked against them at this point – they basically need Miami and Baltimore to lose out.  But should those things somehow miraculously happen… again, the AFC’s 3 seed (which will probably be the team that rhymes with the word “Schnatriots”) may be screwed. 

AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS:
Baltimore 23, New England 20
Kansas City 27, Indianapolis 17
Denver 34, Baltimore 14
Kansas City 17, Cincinnati 14
Denver 30, Kansas City 20

NFC Playoffs

1. Seattle Seahawks (12-2; projected 14-2): Eli Manning moved his record to 2-4 all-time against the Seahawks (don’t forget he’s still 2-0 against the Patriots in Super Bowls) and Seattle got its eighth win of the season against a team with five wins or fewer.  I love Todd’s idea for Pete Carroll to blow this week’s home game against the Cardinals just to make sure the 49ers do not make the playoffs.  Evil, diabolic, and perfectly fitting the Seahawks’ personality.  At this point, all I can root for is for Carroll to rest his starters in Week 17 so the Seahawks will be rusty in the divisional round (and perhaps give Russell Wilson enough spare time to suffer a baseball injury).  The real question: What music does Fox play leading into the Seahawks’ Lombardi Trophy ceremony after their Super Bowl 48 win?  Hendrix, Alice in Chains, Eddie Vedder, Dave Matthews, Soundgarden, Sir Mix-A-Lot . . . My choice would be “Black Hole Sun,” alongside images of angry WTO protestors burning things.

2. Carolina Panthers (10-4; projected 12-4): The Panthers control their own destiny, and since the Saints cannot win outside of the Bayou, Riverboat Ron and CAM! probably face a tougher challenge in their Week 17 trip to Atlanta than their home game this week.  The most promising sign for the Panthers was DeAngelo Williams’ 81 rushing yards (and 168 total yards) against the Jets, as well as the fact that Carolina now moves to 9-1 in games where the defense allows 20 points or fewer. 

3. Chicago Bears (8-6; projected 10-6): I’m convinced the Bears horrid rushing defense finally stood up last weekend as a direct result of my starting Chris Ogbonnaya in multiple playoff fantasy leagues.  No matter; the 2006 Colts own the record for the NFL’s worst rush defense since 1985, and we all know how their season ended.  Also that year, the Colts finished second in the NFL in scoring; so guess who’s second in scoring right now?  If you guessed the Bears, you’re (unbelievably) correct!  The Bears do have to travel to Philadelphia next weekend before hosting Aaron Rodgers (potentially) and the Packers in the season finale.  The real losers for the Bears are those 6,000 starting quarterbacks for Chicago between 1988 and 2004 wondering why Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall couldn’t have come along sooner.

4. Dallas Cowboys (8-6; projected 10-6): Go ahead.  Make fun of me.  Do it.  But watch who laughs when they beat the pitiful Redskins, take care of the Eagles in Big D, beat the Saints at home (which most high school JV teams could probably do) and shock the world by winning in Seattle in the playoffs.  And then watch as I cash in my winnings from their 66-1 odds to win the Super Bowl.  But in all likelihood, I’ll shut up next week after they blow another 23-point lead when they refuse to run the ball.

5. New Orleans Saints (10-4; projected 11-5): Top three things an NFL team can do to annoy Zach Saltz: (1) Win all the time at home and look terrible on the road, (2) Permanently screw up any fantasy football owner like myself stupid enough to take Darren Sproles as their second runningback, and (3) Get blown out by the Seahawks.  The funny thing is, I’ve always loved the Saints, but this year, all they’ve ever done is frustrate me.  It’s not really a good thing when the highlight of New Orleans’ season (for me) was losing to the Patriots in the final seconds.  At least there, they did what they were supposed to do.  And at least if Todd and I had been in Vegas on Sunday, we would have won some money betting against them in St. Louis (the -6.5 line now looks outrageous).  Should the Saints lose Sunday, the 5 seed looms large, which will mean an early playoff exit on the road (sound familiar?)

6. San Francisco 49ers (10-4; projected 11-5): After this season ends, the NFL rules committee should remember the 2013 49ers.  They are probably the NFC’s second-best team (and the league’s third-best), but would have to go on the road if they played Chicago or Dallas in the playoffs.  But that probably won’t even happen since, as the 6 seed, they would go to Seattle in the divisional round.  So potentially, the only really great matchup in the playoffs could happen in mid-January.  Anyway, 49er fans have to be excited at Michael Crabtree’s successful return, along with Kendell Hunter and LaMichael James putting in some valuable playing time off the bench.  In spite of losing by a combined 71-16 in their last two games in Seattle, San Francisco has to be considered the Seahawks’ biggest threat in the NFC.  As Todd suggested, we need to remember what happened after the Patriots beat the Jets 45-3?  Jesus, this week’s column is depressing.

Cue the music: "BLACK HOLE SUN, WON'T YOU COME..."

In Contention

Arizona Cardinals (9-5; projected 10-6): In its first full game without Tyrann Mathieu, the Cardinals surrendered 34 points and 460 yards of offense to the Tennessee Titans.  They were incredibly fortunate to get out of Nashville with a win.  Now it comes down to matchups with the two teams that have plagued them the last few seasons: The Seahawks and the 49ers.  In other news, it still boggles my mind why Bruce Arians continues to go to Rashard Mendenhall (186 carries, 577 yards, 121 receiving yards, 3 fumbles) over Andre Ellington (94 carries, 558 yards, 351 receiving yards, 1 fumble).  Maybe he’s been getting advice from Jason Garrett.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-6; projected 8-8): I’m not totally sure why I’m going against the NFL’s number 2 offense when their remaining games are against the Bears’ and Cowboys’ so-called defenses.  But then again, you shouldn’t be allowed to make the playoffs if you give up 382 yards to Matt Cassel and 48 points to an Adrian Peterson-less Vikings team.

Detroit Lions (7-7; projected 8-8): By virtue of their season sweep of the Bears, they still have a chance.  But like the Eagles, 23 turnovers in their last seven games should make them exempt from any potential playoff discussion.

Green Bay Packers (7-6-1; projected 8-7-1): We’ll know more after Wednesday, when Aaron Rodgers is expected to return to the practice field once again. But I think deep down, Packers fans know that Sunday’s remarkable comeback in Dallas was their greatest moment of 2013.

Engine 5 (14-1; projected 15-1): Terry’s fantasy team can sense victory in the horizon in the Almost Sideways fantasy league’s championship. He’s an underdog to Cali Neva Doggies with their fearsome combination of Peyton Manning and Bobby Rainey, but every move Terry makes seems to be the correct one.  I predict a 40-point week for Ace Sanders.

NFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS:

San Francisco 27, Chicago 10
Dallas 37, New Orleans 33
Seattle 24, San Francisco 7
Carolina 30, Dallas 13

Seattle 26, Carolina 18

SUPER BOWL XLVIII PREDICTION:

Seattle 35, Denver 17

            Thoughts?  Comments?  More Nirvana songs and pictures of depressed Patriots fans to share?  Let me know below.

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2013-2014 College Football Bowl Preview

There are some extremely interesting matchups this bowl season, the final one of the dreaded BCS era. For each game, I will give a couple brief thoughts, my predicted winner and confidence level (35 is most confident), as well as my interest level on a scale of 1-10. Clearly, some of the games hold more weight than others, but bowls are bowls. I would watch every one of them if possible. I love this time of year. Read up!

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL – December 21, 11:00AM ESPN

Colorado State vs Washington State (-4)

Breakdown: Yes, the Cougars are bowl eligible for the first time in a decade, but they got one of the weakest matchups we could have asked for. We want Mike Leach in a bout with another riverboat gambler, but instead we get Colorado State, who lost their season opener to a terrible Colorado team. How many tickets to this game can possibly be sold in New Mexico?  This promises to be a high scoring affair, though, but only if CSU star tailback Kapri Bibbs is healthy.

Winner (Confidence): Colorado State (8)

Interest Level: 3/10

ROYAL PURPLE LAS VEGAS BOWL – December 21, 12:30PM ABC

USC (-6) vs Fresno State

Breakdown: This is a very cool matchup of Golden State teams. The Trojans have had a well documented coaching debacle throughout the season, ending with their interim coach quitting before the bowl game. How inspired will this team be? Will Marqise Lee use this favorable matchup as one final showcase for the NFL scouts? Fresno State scores in bunches, and their QB Derek Carr is right there with the elite NFL prospects as well. This game will have about a billion points scored, but I feel like the Fresno has a bit more motivation in this, missing the BCS due to one loss…in which they scored 52 points on the road.

Winner (Confidence): Fresno State (10)

Interest Level: 7.5/10

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL – December 21, 2:30PM ESPN

Buffalo (-1.5) vs San Diego State

Breakdown: Buffalo was had one of the most impressive turnarounds outside of Auburn in the nation. In 2011, they were an uncompetitive 3-9. Last year, 4-8. Now, they are 8-4 and nearly won their division. They get rewarded with…the Potato Bowl. San Diego State had a pretty good season, but it was really up-and-down. They get blown out by Eastern Illinois, beat Boise State, play close against awful New Mexico State and Hawaii. I suspect that the Aztecs, despite playing in familiar surroundings, will get blown off the blown off the ball by the Buffalo o-line and Branden Oliver will have a monster game.

Winner (Confidence): Buffalo (22)

Interest Level: 1.5/10

R&L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL – December 21, 6:00PM ESPN

Tulane (PK) vs Louisiana-Lafayette

Breakdown: I am intrigued by this game for really no other reason than we get to see in-state rivals playing in their home state. Ordinarily, when a team plays near home, the outcome of the bowl game is somewhat predetermined. Here, we get a very intriguing matchup where motivation will be the deciding factor. I think that Tulane (2-10 last year), who was clearly in the better conference, will want to show the nation that their hot start was not a fluke. It will be a nail-biter, but I got the Green Wave.

Winner (Confidence): Tulane (17)

Interest Level: 6/10

BEEF ‘O’ BRADY’S BOWL – December 23, 11:00AM ESPN

Ohio vs East Carolina (-14)

Breakdown: Here, we have a couple non-AQ usual suspects battling it out in Florida. Ohio had a ton of returning talent, but they had a letdown year. East Carolina has a high-powered offense and an underrated defense that held Virginia Tech to just 15 points. I expect Shane Carden and Justin Hardy to hook up for a trio of touchdowns and roll all over that putrid Bobcat defense. If Beau Blankenship can get his act together and run the ball effectively for Ohio, however, this game could remain close.

Winner (Confidence): East Carolina (26)

Interest Level: 4/10

SHERATON HAWAII BOWL – December 24, 5:00PM ESPN

Oregon State (-3) vs Boise State

Breakdown: This game has no shortage of intrigue. We have the Beavers, who opened the year with a loss to FCS Eastern Washington, but then went on somewhat of a roll behind Biletnikoff winner Brandin Cooks and the arm of Sean Mannion. Boise State had an average year by their standards, mainly because their defense could not stop anyone. They also lost their coach, so how prepared will this team be without the best bowl game coach in the nation? They are very familiar with playing in Hawaii, but in bowl games, the stars show up. Cooks will go off like usual, but look for RBs Storm Woods and Terron Ward to put up the big numbers against that weak Boise front. This will be high scoring and close. I can’t wait to see this.

Winner (Confidence): Oregon State (14)

Interest Level: 9/10

LITTLE CAESARS BOWL – December 26, 3:00PM ESPN

Pittsburgh vs Bowling Green (-6)

Breakdown: This is a nice matchup. Bowling Green won the MAC in a shocking blowout win over Northern Illinois, but when they played BCS competition, they lost 63-30. This is not a great Pittsburgh team, but if I have learned anything watching bowl games, dominate defensive linemen take over bowls. Aaron Donald, the unbelievable DT for the Panthers, won the Outland, Bednarik, Nagurski, and Lombardi awards. He will take over this game and prevent that powerful Falcon offense from really getting going. BG also has 5^thbest scoring defense in the nation, so expect an ugly game in Detroit.

Winner (Confidence): Pittsburgh (21)

Interest Level: 7/10

SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL – December 26, 6:30PM ESPN

Utah State vs Northern Illinois (-1.5)

Breakdown: Here, we have a classic matchup of strength vs strength. Northern Illinois has one of the most amazing offenses in the nation, and Utah State has one of the stingiest defenses out there. The Huskies are coming off an ugly loss in the MAC Championship Game, and Utah State nearly took down Fresno State for the MWC title. If Chuckie Keeton were healthy for Utah State, then this would be no contest. Since his injury, the Aggies have looked human, but like last year, in which they dominated their bowl game, they are just a better overall team than their opponent. This is bound to be a close game, but Utah State is playing closer to home, and Lynch already got his Heisman invite. I got the Aggies in a highly entertaining game that may well be the best of all the non-BCS games.

Winner (Confidence): Utah State (19)

Interest Level: 9/10

MILITARY BOWL – December 27, 11:30AM ESPN

Marshall (-3) vs Maryland

Breakdown: Marshall is probably the better team in this game, but Maryland is playing basically at home. The Terrapins started the season looking like a contender, but then fell off after that 63-0 loss to Florida State. Marshall finished winning 5 of their last 6, and they do have Rakeem Kato, one of the coolest QBs in the country. This is a decent matchup, but I feel like the team playing at home is going to be the deciding factor. The Marshall passing game will get slowed down a bit by the weather as well. Expect a low scoring affair.

Winner (Confidence): Maryland (5)

Interest Level: 5/10

TEXAS BOWL – December 27, 3:00PM ESPN

Syracuse vs Minnesota (-4.5)

Breakdown: Syracuse has a history of screwing up people’s seasons, but this Minnesota team is special. They are not the most talented team, but their defense is dominant. Their offense gets it done, especially since David Cobb’s emergence as their go-to tailback. The game being played in Texas is random, so there is no impact of weather or potential home crowd. The Gophers are the better team, and they will win this game.

Winner (Confidence): Minnesota (25)

Interest Level: 4.5/10

FIGHT HUNGER BOWL – December 27, 6:30PM ESPN

Washington (-3) vs BYU

Breakdown: These teams have played each other quite a bit over the years, but this matchup is different. Coach Sarkisian left for USC, so he doesn’t get to coach against his alma mater. This BYU team has a power running game, and they have hung with teams and been a much better Independent than I expected. Washington has more talent and are being coached by legendary Husky Marques Tuiasosopo for the game. Expect that offense to get going quick, and watch Bishop Sankey have one more huge game before jumping to the NFL. Watch out for Cougars QB Taysom Hill, who could very well shred the stout Husky D. This will be a fantastic game to watch in San Francisco, with the two schools being basically the same distance from the game. It is the perfect neutral site.

Winner (Confidence): Washington (4)

Interest Level: 8/10

NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL – December 28, 9:00AM ESPN

Rutgers vs Notre Dame (-15.5)

Breakdown: I am going against my rule of always picking the home state team. Rutgers is simply not a good team, and this Notre Dame squad has beaten a few of the best teams in the country. There is also a huge contingent of Irish fans in New York, so Rutgers will likely not outdraw ND in ticket sales. The Irish defense will destroy that streaky Rutgers offense and win this game comfortably.

Winner (Confidence): Notre Dame (29)

Interest Level: 4/10

BELK BOWL – December 28, 12:20PM ESPN

Cincinnati vs North Carolina (-3)

Breakdown: I have no idea what to expect from these teams. Cincinnati nearly won the AAC after losing their starting QB and losing to South Florida, one of the worst teams in the nation. North Carolina started 1-5 and finished 5-1. UNC lost their season finale to Duke, while Cincinnati lost their chance at the conference title in the last week. UNC probably has more upside, but I really have no idea what this game will look like. It is a coin flip if there ever was one.

Winner (Confidence): Cincinnati (1)

Interest Level: 3.5/10

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL – December 28, 3:45PM ESPN

Miami vs Louisville (-3)

Breakdown: This is another case where I had to go against my home state rule. Louisville has appeared bored since they lost to UCF, but they haven’t lost since. Miami has appeared pedestrian at best since getting obliterated by Florida State. The Cardinal are simply a better team, and if Teddy Bridgewater wants to go pro, he can have a big game against this defense. I expect him to.

Winner (Confidence): Louisville (12)

Interest Level: 7/10

BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL – December 28, 7:15PM ESPN

Michigan vs Kansas State (-3.5)

Breakdown: This is a great matchup for such a lower-level bowl game. The teams appear to be mirrors of each other. The Wildcats had a commendable season after their Heisman finalist Colin Klein graduated. Michigan looked terrific early on, but then they stumbled and hit rock bottom midseason. They are coming in with some confidence after their effort against Ohio State. They are certainly more explosive than K-State. There will be no defense played in this game, but Michigan has more weapons.

Winner (Confidence): Michigan (16)

Interest Level: 7.5/10

BELL HELICOPTER ARMED FORCES BOWL – December 30, 8:45AM ESPN

Middle Tennessee State vs Navy (-6)

Breakdown: This is just one of those games where there are very few pulls. The quarterbacks are dynamic, especially Keenan Reynolds, who set the single season QB rushing TD record. Navy just never really has great bowl games. Logan Kilgore is a fine player as well, but his senior year has been as great as we would have expected going in. Unless Reynolds goes off, this is bound to be the most forgettable bowl game of the season.

Winner (Confidence): Middle Tennessee State (7)

Interest Level: 2/10

FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL – December 30, 12:15PM ESPN

Mississippi (-3) vs Georgia Tech

Breakdown: Here, we get a cool matchup of unique offenses. Ole Miss has had a Jekyll and Hyde-type of season, but last year’s bowl game showed that they can be tough to prepare for. Georgia Tech ended the year on somewhat of a roll when Vad Lee and David Sims really started playing well. The Yellow Jackets have a better defense, so the option team will probably have more success on the ground than the straight spread team. That is only a guess, though. This is a really interesting game.

Winner (Confidence): Georgia Tech (3)

Interest Level: 7.5/10

VALERO ALAMO BOWL – December 30, 3:45PM ESPN

Texas vs Oregon (-14)

Breakdown: Here, we have two teams that do not want to be where they are at. Oregon was not pleased with the Rose Bowl…so how does the Alamo Bowl taste? DAT sucks, bro. Texas was an in-state rivalry game away from the Fiesta Bowl, but here they sit in an ugly game that they have little chance of really competing in. The only thing going for them is that they are playing in Texas. With Mack Brown on his way out, the team may be uninspired. They could get a bit of “win one for the Gipper” as a sendoff to their National Title winning coach, but I doubt it. This one could get ugly very quick, since Texas has one of the worst run defenses in the nation.

Winner (Confidence): Oregon (27)

Interest Level: 6/10

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY HOLIDAY BOWL – December 30, 7:15PM ESPN

Texas Tech vs Arizona State (-14)

Breakdown: This is a very strange game that I cannot get a read on. I figured that the Sun Devils would beat Stanford at home for the Pac-12 title, but they got steamrolled. ASU has looked amazing at times this year, but with Marion Grice banged up, the team is more one-dimensional. Texas Tech started off hot this year before basically imploding. The team seems like it could come up with some exotic offensive game plan with all that time to prepare. I am not confident in this one. There will definitely be a bunch of points down there in San Diego.

Winner (Confidence): Arizona State (9)

Interest Level: 8/10

ADVOCARE V100 BOWL – December 31, 9:30AM ESPN

Boston College vs Arizona (-7.5)

Breakdown: In this game, we have an awesome matchup of the two best running backs in the nation. Ka’Deem Carey is electric for the Wildcats and dominated the Pac-12 for the second consecutive year. Andre Williams, obviously, had one of the elite seasons for a running back in college football history. He is the only weapon that BC has on offense, and he still rolled up over 2000 yards, most of which were in the second half of the year. Big time players show up in big games. Look for Williams to put a stamp on his historic season and lead the Eagles to victory behind a 200+ yard game.

Winner (Confidence): Boston College (13)

Interest Level: 8.5/10

HYUNDAI SUN BOWL – December 31, 11:00AM CBS

Virginia Tech vs UCLA (-7)

Breakdown: UCLA is a troubling team. When they are at their peak, they might be the best team in the country. They have been up-and-down, though. This is a favorable matchup. The Bruins might not be able to really open it up against a pretty strong Hokies defense, but they should be able to shut down Logan Thomas and company without too much trouble. Watch this game to see a whole lot of Myles Jack, one of the most versatile and exciting players in college football. He will be a Heisman frontrunner heading into next season.

Winner (Confidence): UCLA (32)

Interest Level: 7/10

AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL – December 31, 1:00PM ESPN

Mississippi State (-7) vs Rice

Breakdown: Rice is coming into the game hot after taking apart a really good Marshall team for the C-USA title. Mississippi State really has not recorded a quality win. Their best win may have been the ugly Egg Bowl victory over Ole Miss. The only reason Bulldogs are favored is because they are in the SEC. Rice is a better team. They showed they can play with the big boys when they put 31 on Texas A&M to start the year.

Winner (Confidence): Rice (20)

Interest Level: 6/10

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL – December 31, 5:00PM ESPN

Duke vs Texas A&M (-12)

Breakdown: Here, we have a mismatch. We saw what Duke is really like when they play outside of the soft ACC. They are an intriguing team just because they won 10 games and that never happens. The Aggies are not coming in felling good, necessarily, after getting dismantled by Missouri. This is, in all likelihood, Johnny Manziel’s last college game. He will leave his mark. This should get out of hand pretty quick, but it will probably be entertaining.

Winner (Confidence): Texas A&M (33)

Interest Level: 5/10

TAXSLAYER.COM GATOR BOWL – JANUARY 1, 9:00AM ESPN2

Nebraska vs Georgia (-9)

Breakdown: It is always unfortunate when we get a rematch of the previous year’s bowl season. Last year, Nebraska and Georgia came in healthy, and we got a shootout. This year, both teams’ quarterbacks are out for the year and are a shell of their former selves. Georgia has more talent and is deeper, so they should not have too many problems beating the Huskers and whoever they start at QB. Ameer Abdullah will have a day for the Big Red, but it will not be nearly enough to keep up with the Bulldogs.

Winner (Confidence): Georgia (30)

Interest Level: 5/10

HEART OF DALLAS BOWL – JANUARY 1, 9:00AM ESPNU

UNLV vs North Texas (-6.5)

Breakdown: This is the biggest mismatch of the bowl season. UNLV played in a weak Mountain West and got destroyed by every good team on their schedule. They finished the season on a good note, but they are going to Texas to play a feisty team from Texas. The Mean Green have a top 10 defense and a very balanced offense. They should be able to force UNLV into passing situations, which is not good news for the Rebels. North Texas scores on defense consistently. This is an absolute no-brainer. NOTE: I always seem to miss my top confidence game, but I can’t get this one wrong...right?

Winner (Confidence): North Texas (35)

Interest Level: 4/10

CAPITAL ONE BOWL – JANUARY 1, 10:00AM ABC

Wisconsin (PK) vs South Carolina

Breakdown: I really like this matchup. I can already picture how this game is going to go. Wisconsin will outplay South Carolina in almost every way, but South Carolina will somehow have more points at the end of the game. Sound familiar? It should, if you have seen any Cocks game during the Connor Shaw era. The running game for the Badgers is seemingly unstoppable when they commit to it (which didn’t happen in their embarrassing season-ending loss to Penn State). South Carolina has a good running game of its own, led by 1000 yard rusher Mike Davis. This will likely be a very entertaining game, one of the best on New Year’s Day.

Winner (Confidence): South Carolina (28)

Interest Level: 9/10

OUTBACK BOWL – JANUARY 1, 10:00AM ESPN

Iowa vs LSU (-7.5)

Breakdown: This game has my attention for some reason. LSU was a really interesting team for most of the season. Heading into their bowl without senior QB Zach Mettenberger is troubling, but it levels the playing field with ground-and-pound Iowa. The Hawkeyes have had a solid season and a nice turnaround from last year. LSU has NFL players all over its offense, but its defense is rebuilding. If Iowa can control the clock, which it does better than almost any other team, it has a tremendous chance of winning. I just seem too much firepower for the Bayou Bengals.

Winner (Confidence): LSU (18)

Interest Level: 8/10

ROSE BOWL GAME – JANUARY 1, 2:00PM ESPN

Michigan State vs Stanford (-4.5)

Breakdown: This is the best game of the season. We have two teams that are committed to being NFL-style teams. They have stout defenses, especially the nation’s best one in Michigan State. Stanford has had a couple cases where they were not able to really control the line of scrimmage, which is what Sparty does game in and game out. I like their chances of winning, but it is so hard to predict a Cardinal loss. I really do not want to pick a side here. I just want to enjoy what will likely be the roughest and most beautiful display of pure football this season.

Winner (Confidence): Michigan State (2)

Interest Level: 10/10

TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL – JANUARY 1, 5:30PM ESPN

UCF vs Baylor (-17)

Breakdown: I like this game in theory. UCF has had itself an incredible debut BCS conference season. That is without question. They also had some very close calls with some awful teams. Baylor, with the exception of a couple games late in the year, could do whatever they wanted on offense. The Bears should be able to score 60 on UCF, who doesn’t have much on the defensive side. They do have an offense of their own, but it will not be enough against a solid Baylor D. I want to watch these offenses, but this game should not be closer than 4 touchdowns.

Winner (Confidence): Baylor (31)

Interest Level: 8/10

ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL – JANUARY 2, 5:30PM ESPN

Oklahoma vs Alabama (-15)

Breakdown: This is one of those games that seem so obvious that I almost picked the other way. These types of games always destroy confidence pickers. Oklahoma has almost nothing on offense. They road one player to a Bedlam victory, a game they had no business winning or even competing in. Alabama is still probably the best team in the country, but how much do they want to play in the Sugar Bowl? They have lost to Utah in a BCS game in the past in which they just didn’t show up. The Crimson Tide are superior in every way, and I just cannot seeing one of college football’s greatest champions AJ McCarron going out with a loss.

Winner (Confidence): Alabama (34)

Interest Level: 5/10

AT&T COTTON BOWL – JANUARY 3, 4:30PM FOX

Oklahoma State vs Missouri (-1)

Breakdown: I love this matchup of old Big 12 schools. Missouri got shredded in the SEC Championship game by a creative offense, and that is exactly what Oklahoma State sports. The Pokes have had their troubles with consistency all year. They have more talent than Missouri, but that really doesn’t matter in most bowls. This game is going to be an offensive shootout. I trust Mike Gundy more than Gary Pinkel, plus Missouri’s letdown of missing out on the BCS Championship Game is greater than OK State’s letdown of missing playing UCF in the Fiesta.

Winner (Confidence): Oklahoma State (24)

Interest Level: 8.5/10

DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL – JANUARY 3, 5:30PM ESPN

Clemson vs Ohio State (-3)

Breakdown: This is a game that features two teams that cannot feel too good coming in. Everyone had Clemson finally winning another Palmetto Bowl, but they got taken apart again. Ohio State has been exposed defensively each of their last two games. Urban Meyer is typically a fantastic postseason coach, though. Tajh Boyd dominated last season in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against LSU. Both teams should be well prepared and hungry…at least I hope so. I want this to be a great game.

Winner (Confidence): Ohio State (11)

Interest Level: 9/10

BBVA COMPASS BOWL – JANUARY 4, 10:00AM ESPN

Houston vs Vanderbilt (-3)

Breakdown: I do not really know what to say about this game. Houston looked decent until they played the best 3 teams in the AAC, which they lost to in consecutive weeks. Their best game was probably their close loss to either BYU or Louisville. They did stun Rice early in the year. They are capable of playing a good game, especially defensively. Vanderbilt had high hopes, and even though they won 8 games, they were not great. They did not really have any quality wins, unless you count the depleted Georgia team. The Commodores will win because they have some real talent on offense and a great coach, but I do not really need to see this game. It is bound to be pretty bad.

Winner (Confidence): Vanderbilt (23)

Interest Level: 1/10

GODADDY BOWL – JANUARY 5, 6:00PM ESPN

Arkansas State vs Ball State (-9)

Breakdown: Games like this one are hard to predict. Ball State should be the clear favorite after taking their conference, but this game is the day before the championship game. Arkansas State lost another coach to a better job, which usually plays in the favor of the team with the vacated coaching spot. I think this will be a close game, but Ball State has too much firepower offensively. The QB-RB-WR combo of Keith Wenning, Jahwan Edwards, and Willie Snead is one of the best in the nation. I expect them to probably win, but I just cannot fully trust the MAC.

Winner (Confidence): Ball State (6)

Interest Level: 4.5/10

VIZIO BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP – JANUARY 6, 5:30PM ESPN

Auburn vs Florida State (-8.5)

Breakdown: Finally we arrive at the one everyone wants to see. We get to see one of the most dominant regular season teams in recent memory against a team of destiny if there ever was one. Auburn’s running game seems impossible to stop, but only if you watched the SEC Championship Game. They had to be far more balanced against Georgia the game before, a game that I still cannot believe they escaped from. The team simply has no defense either. Florida State has yet to really be tested. That is not to say they haven’t played anyone, but they just haven’t played in a close game. So, if this one is looking like a nail-biter, I am not really confident in freshman Heisman winner Jameis Winston to be able to score when he needs a score. I do trust that NFL defense, however. I expect a pretty good game with a big stop or turnover late forced by the ‘Noles. FSU takes the title 30-23.

Winner (Confidence): Florida State (15)

Interest Level: 10/10

Thoughts? Predictions? Your confidence picks? Hit me up in the comments!

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NFL Playoff Power Rankings: Week 15

            Around 10:00pm Sunday night, I texted Todd that between the Patriots, Ravens, Matt Prater, Antonio Brown, LeSean McCoy and the snow, last Sunday may have been the greatest day in NFL regular season history (minus an injuryor two).  It was a perfect day to stay inside during the snowstorm covering most of the nation.  It was a great way to conclude the fantasy football regular season too, unless you were a ReggieBush owner.  Let’s take a moment to forget the atrocities of the BCSand college football culturein general and remember what real football looks like.

AFC Playoffs

1. Denver Broncos (11-2; projected 14-2): It’s going to be hard bidding farewell to the 2007 Patriots’ records of points scored and passing touchdowns.  But it’s even harder to argue this team doesn’t deserve it.  Denver may have had its best game of the season Sunday, with two 75+ yard rushers, a near-flawless performance by Peyton Manning (who completed 39 passes), a 64-yard field goal, and zero turnovers for the first time since Week 4.  The combined record of their remaining opponents is 12-27.  The one lingering concern: Wes Welker, who suffered his second concussion of the season on Sunday.  But with the injury to Gronkowski and doubts about the Seahawks playing 3,000 miles away from the 12^th Man, the Broncos have to be the odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl XLVIII.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4; projected 11-5): The Bengals travel to Pittsburgh next Sunday night, where a win can move them considerably closer to wrapping up the division.  The real question is whether Cincinnati can get some help in the AFC East to secure the two seed over New England.  The Bengals have now scored 41+ points in each of their last three home games, and believe it or not, Andy Dalton has more touchdowns than Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson.  But with all four losses coming on the road, homefield advantage and a bye could be a huge boost.  They can’t beat the Broncos in Denver though.

3. New England Patriots (10-3; projected 11-5): I give up. What more can you say about this team?  According to Pro Football Database, they have 23 injured players.  In their last four games, they’ve been outscored in the first half by a margin of 57-10.  You could make a convincing case that this team should be 12-1 or 7-6, depending on your perspective.  The Gronkowski injury is understandably devastating, but frankly, Pats fans have been preparing for this all season.  If Vereen, Edelman and Amendola can stay healthy, the offense should be OK (remember that they were 5-1 without Gronk).  Their next two games – on the road against Miami and Baltimore – are tough, but the best news for New England is that there is apparently no lead over Tom Brady any opponent should feel comfortable with.

4. Indianapolis Colts (8-5; projected 9-7): The Colts have the worst record of any AFC division leader, but somehow became the first team in the league to officially clinch its division.  They have one of the most dynamic young quarterbacks in all of football, don’t turn the ball over, and will likely get a home playoff game against Alex Smith.  That’s the glass half-full.  On the other side is a team that can’t block, can’t defend the run, hasn’t beat a team from outside its crappy division since October 20, and like the Patriots, has been terrible in the first half of late (outscored 48-15 in their last three games, with zero TDs).  After Sunday’s loss to the Bengals, Indianapolis has been outscored on the season (313 to 316) and other than giveaways, ranks in the bottom half of the league in almost every meaningful statistic.  Remaining home games against the Texans and Jaguars are no longer a given.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (10-3; projected 12-4): Last week, I told everyone to stop freaking out about the Chiefs’ three-game losing streak, and the matchup with the Redskins proved the best antidote to those concerns.  Kansas City now has to start thinking about going on the road – two of its final three are in Oakland and San Diego, and a home game for the playoffs seems out of reach at this point.  Still, the Chiefs lead the league in turnover margin and have scored 28+ points in their last three games (in their prior 10 games, they reached 28 points only once).  Key to their success will be the eventual return of Justin Houston, who could provide the defensive spark for an intriguing potential playoff run beginning in Indianapolis, who the Ravens first played in January last season.

6. Baltimore Ravens (7-6; projected 9-7): Uh oh.  This looks familiar.  But instead of a 4^th-and-29or Rahim Moore, this time the culprit was the Minnesota Vikings, who gave up 140 yards and three touchdowns in seven plays.  Just how big was that win?  A loss would have put the Ravens one game back of the Dolphins, with their next three opponents all division leaders.  Instead, the Ravens control their own destiny for the AFC’s sixth wild-card spot, having now won four of its last five games. On the season, Baltimore has allowed three rushing touchdowns.  They still can’t mount a consistent running game, and have technically played the league’s easiest schedule, but what team would want to play these guys in January?

In Contention

Miami Dolphins (7-6; projected 8-8): The Dolphins were also 7-6 in 2009 and 2010 before dropping their last three games.  And while road wins against cold weather teams like the Jets and Steelers are undeniably impressive, Miami still needs a signature win to be taken seriously (other than their fluky two-point OT win over the Bengals).  They will get their opportunity this weekend against the Patriots, who they can still technically overtake in the AFC East should the Gronkowski injury prove as catastrophic as some predict.  Unlikely, but still.  Ryan Tannehill has been impressive though (over 60% completions and 84 QB rating in his last six games), and the Dolphins do finish the year with the Bills and Jets – unlike the Ravens, who conclude with the Patriots and Bengals.

San Diego Chargers (6-7; projected 8-8): Too little, too late?  If San Diego has any chance at the wild card, they must win in Denver Thursday night (intriguingly, the Chargers have won three of its past four and five of its past seven games in Denver).  Should they do that, things could get real interesting, with their final two contests at home against the Raiders and Chiefs.  The Chargers still cannot be trusted in close games (2-6 in games decided by eight points or less) and are fourth-worst in the league at creating turnovers.  But at least they can move the ball downfield, which is more than you can say about the Ravens and Dolphins.

New York Jets (6-7; projected 8-8): Something tells me not to completely count out the Jets and their third-worst offense in football.  Once upon a time, a rookie QB named Mark Sanchez threw for 12 touchdowns in a season (along with 20 interceptions) and the Jets came within a game of the Super Bowl.  Geno Smith’s numbers are eerily similar (9 TDs and 20 Ints), as is the Jets’ potential to screw everything up in the playoff race should they beat the Dolphins in Miami Week 17.  Or maybe I’ve just been burned by this team too many times.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8; projected 6-10): Hey, maybe if they didn’t play football with sidelines.

Playoff Predictions:

New England 27, Baltimore 24

Indianapolis 20, Kansas City 12

Denver 49, Indianapolis 28

Cincinnati 21, New England 18

Denver 34, Cincinnati 16

NFC Playoffs

1. Seattle Seahawks (11-2; projected 13-3): Injuries to K.J. Wright and Max Unger have to be mildly disturbing to Seahawk fans, but the good news is that with a win this week, they can wrap up the NFC’s 1 seed and rest their players the remainder of the regular season.  The 49ers win over Seattle was more symbolic than significant – it didn’t really affect the standings except to illustrate that the Seahawks may be vulnerable to good running games on the road.  By that logic, this limits the teams that can foreseeably beat them to the Broncos and Chiefs . . . in Super Bowl XVIII.

 2. New Orleans Saints (10-3; projected 12-4): The Saints are posers in the way they look unbeatable at home (7-0, 23+ points in each game) and mediocre on the road (3-3, only one 400 yard game).  They absolutely cannot be trusted to go into Seattle and win the NFC Championship.  Still, they are terrific to watch in the confines of the Superdome, treating the much-vaunted Panthers defense like it was a JV squad.  On paper, the Saints are in the top six both in total offense and defense, but other stats (such as only two takeaways through their last six games) show the kind of Jekyll-and-Hyde dynamic that won’t get it done in the playoffs unless your name is the New York Giants.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5; projected 10-6): Amid the insanity of last Sunday’s games was the stunning development that NICK FOLES THREW AN INTERCEPTION!  The Eagles probably can’t beat the Seahawks with their 3^rd worst defense in the league, but they are 5-1 on the road and currently have the NFC’s top rated passer and leading runningback.  Despite the Cowboys’ loss, the Eagles’ ultimate fate may still come down to Sunday night Week 17 in Dallas, but after seeing what Josh McCown did to that secondary, Chip Kelly shouldn’t lose too much sleep.

4. Chicago Bears (7-6; projected 9-7): The Bears are back!  In eclipsing the 40 point mark for the third time this season, Marc Trestman and his west coast offense (and utter lack of defense) have given Chicago its quirkiest season since 1995.  The Josh McCown-Jay Cutler debate may have staunch defenders on both sides (Cutler wasn’t exactly putting up bad numbers before his injury), but it’s clear that what McCown is doing (13 TDs, 1 Int) is something special and vaguely Kurt Warner-esque. Like a 1961 Cheval Blanc, he's peaking at the right time. A trip to Philadelphia and a home finale against the Packers still loom large. 

5. Carolina Panthers (9-4; projected 11-5): The Panthers are clearly a talented team that deserves a playoff appearance for the first time since 2008, but like Kansas City, they have a hard time playing from behind.  Cam Newton looked overly cautious Sunday night in the Superdome, and the Panthers seemed to lack the intensity needed to go on the road and win a big game – something that as a wild card team, they will need to do several times potentially.  Fortunately, Geno Smith comes to Charlotte this Sunday, leaving many wondering if it is possible for a team to finish a game with negative points scored.

6. San Francisco 49ers (9-4; projected 11-5): It’s hard to believe, but the 49ers not only have a difficult path to postseason berth, but will need to root for the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in two weeks for any form of breathing room (the season finale at Arizona should be a doozy). The running game came back to life on Sunday, with Frank Gore putting the team on his back and getting a much-needed win over Seattle – even if the win really was just to save face after their Week 2 annihilation.  Michael Crabtree getting healthier each week is a good sign for San Francisco’s passing attack, which ranks dead last in football.  It’s odd to think of both Super Bowl teams from last year being 6 seeds – but it’s not surprising that no one wants to play them.

In Contention

Arizona Cardinals (8-5; projected 10-6): The Cardinals are hoping to avoid joining the ranks of the 2010 Giants, 2010 Buccaneers, and 2008 Patriotsas recent teams eclipsing 10 wins, but somehow missing the postseason.  The bad news is that Tyrann Mathieu will miss the rest of the season, but the good news is that they look better each week.  Carson Palmer completed 84 percent of his passing Sunday – including 12 for 12 on passes targeting Larry Fitzgerald – and John Abraham and Karlos Dansby have provided a fearsome veteran linebacking combination. Next Sunday’s game at Tennessee is a virtual must-win before they go to Seattle and host the 49ers in Phoenix (where they are 6-1) to close out the season.

Detroit Lions (7-6; projected 8-8): A month ago, the Lions stood alone atop the ranks of the NFC North with Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers out indefinitely.  Today, the Lions are a team in the midst of a freefall – incapable of holding on to the ball, stopping opponents, or mounting a consistent running game.  Like the Cowboys, the talent is there – meaning they can never be truly counted out – but the execution simply is not.  A season sweep of the Bears still means Detroit controls its own destiny, but I’m not sure why anyone would put their confidence in this team at the moment.

Green Bay Packers (6-6-1; projected 8-7-1): As long as the Packers never have to play in November ever again, they should be fine.  Aaron Rodgers’ return should ignite an offense that’s been left for dead by bad quarterbacking (no, as it turns out, Matt Flynn isn’t all that good) and a pretty lousy secondary.  They need help, but don’t think they’ve forgotten about GoldenGate and would be one of the few teams that would love a trip to Seattle in January. 

Dallas Cowboys (7-6; projected 9-7): In Las Vegas, the Cowboys are 50-1 to win the Super Bowl.  I’d still put $10 on them.  But then again, I don’t typically leave Vegas with very much money in hand.

Playoff Predictions:

San Francisco 24, Philadelphia 21

Carolina 31, Chicago 24

Seattle 19, San Francisco 10

New Orleans 35, Carolina 24

Seattle 38, New Orleans 13

SUPER BOWL XLVIII PREDICTION:

Denver 41, Seattle 32

Thoughts? Disagreements? Sick of sad Patriots pictures? Excited for the epic fantasy football playoff matchup between me and Terry (aka Frass Canyon vs. Engine 5)? Let me know below.

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