Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Best Actress

A couple months ago, this one seemed to be all but over. Jennifer Lawrence is a superstar, and it appeared that there was no one who could touch her. Now, after the rise of Jessica Chastain and a late push for the sublime Emmanuelle Riva, we have a tough three-actress race. Check out the breakdown below…

5. Naomi Watts – The Impossible

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG

Case for the Oscar: She was in a movie that had everything going for it, but the controversy surrounding her story restricted its box office. It is ridiculous that this is only her second nomination, but she will have to continue to wait for her day. The nomination is her reward.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2010 Best Actress: Nicole Kidman. The film was not the biggest hit, but the performance was a powerhouse that secured an easy nomination. She was popular worldwide, yet she missed out on nominations on several occasions. She stood very little chance at winning, not just because of the tough subject matter, but because of the incredible performances ahead of her in much more warmly-received films.

Odds of winning: 200/1

4. Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, Spirit Awards

Case for the Oscar: She was ineligible for the SAG, so we do not quite know what her support actually looks like. The film clearly has its following, so if there is an award in its future, why not this one? She is going to need to tackle some huge contenders (including one some 80 years her senior), but I wouldn’t put it past the Academy. It has very little chance of happening, but a three-way vote split would not exactly be unheard of, resulting in those big Beastsfans creating quite a stir in this race. Too bad we don’t get to see the final voting results…

Oscar Doppelganger: Gabourey Sidibe – Precious. In her first career performance, she absolutely blew away every audience member that sought out her film. The indie film vastly overachieved in terms of nominations,which expressed the deep-seeded love for the film overall. She gave one of the more impressive debuts we have seen in a long time, but her chances of actually winning were slim due to the other contenders.

Odds of winning: 75/1

3. Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

Notable awards: BAFTA, Boston Critics, Los Angeles Critics (tie), National Society of Film Critics

Notable nominations: BFCA

Case for the Oscar: The older voters will remember her early work in Hiroshima, mon amour. This is her first nomination, and the Oscar ceremony will be on her 86^thbirthday (she was born in 1927, the year the first Oscar winner was released). The film has all of the important nominations in the major categories. Oh, and she may have given the best performance of the bunch. The theatrical release has expanded in the past couple weeks, ensuring that her heartbreaking performance is fresh on the Academy members’ minds when voting ends. She is up against two juggernauts, but honestly, their careers basically just started a couple years ago. This is the only time they will ever get to reward this actress.

Oscar Doppelganger: Best Actor 1999: Richard Farnsworth. He was one of those faces that audiences may recognize, but not really know what from. He had the cool story of making an appearance in Gone with the Wind exactly 60 years before the ceremony. His performance was endearing and heartfelt, and that certainly struck a chord with the Academy members, even though the film was not exactly widely-seen.

Odds of winning: 3/1

2. Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty

Notable awards: BFCA, Chicago Critics, Golden Globes (Drama), National Board of Review

Notable nominations: BAFTA, SAG

Case for the Oscar: She is in a film that, perhaps for the wrong reasons, has been in the spotlight since its inception. If the Academy wants to award the movie, it will and should be for this performance. Her rise to stardom has been as sudden as any that I have ever seen, and she deserves to win. She won the important Critics Choice award, as well as getting the most important precursor mentions. She completely steps out of her comfort zone with this film, playing about as polar opposite from her role in The Help as possible. It may not exactly be a typical winner, but getting some comparisons to Jodie Foster in The Silence of the Lambs says something.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2005 Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon. She won all of the important precursors, yet had the odd case of almost never really competing against the other major contender, due to the fact that it was an indie and in the opposite Golden Globe category. It was not a normal Oscar winner and the film was underwhelming in terms of nominations, but she rode her popularity all the way to the Oscar.

Odds of winning: 9/4

1. Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

Notable awards: Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical), Los Angeles Critics (tie), Satellite Award, SAG

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit Awards (will win)

Case for the Oscar: She has the backing of the Weinsteins. Her film continues to place among the top of the box office week after week leading up to the Oscar ballots being due. She was hilarious when she hosted “Saturday Night Live”, and each one of her acceptance speeches has been genuine, something rare for someone so new to the ceremonies. Her performance is one that wins Oscars, and the only thing that may be going against her is that she is only 22, so she has many years ahead of her before she even hits her prime. They may want to make her wait, giving the award to one of the two contenders who have been at it for several years. She is the favorite, but it is by no means a secure favorite. Her SAG win was important, and her film getting 4 acting noms is telling. Doubt going 0 for 4 was a joke, and the Academy will not want to do that again.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2011 Best Actor: Jean Dujardin. He had the advantage of not competing against the other contender for the majority of the season. He had the Weinstein backing. His film was all over the major awards, vastly overachieving given its small budget and ambition. He was the favorite going into the ceremony, but by no means an overwhelming one. He was a relative newcomer, yet his performance was just so impressive that the Academy just could not resist (or say “no” to Harvey).

Odds of winning: EVEN

Previous articles:

Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

Best Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Thoughts? Comments? Coming up: BEST ACTOR!

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Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Best Supporting Actor

This is the most wide open category of this year and of the past few years. The awards have been splitting up between a few actors. The SAG went to one, the Critic’s Choice went to one, the Golden Globe and BAFTA went to another. We have all previous winners. To me, this category somewhat mirrors 2007 Supporting Actress. Nobody can really predict this topsy-turvy race. Sadly, due to the format of the Oscars, this will be the first award given. At least we can start out on a good note. Check it out…

5. Alan Arkin – Argo

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG

Case for the Oscar: Honestly, this is the only one of the nominees that stands no chance at winning. He is just a throw-away nomination that is along for the ride. That is not to say he is undeserving of his nomination, but a win would be more than a little ridiculous. His nomination is just a testament to how much the industry respects his character work.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2011 Best Supporting Actor: Jonah Hill. He was in one of the most popular Best Picture nominees box office-wise, and his performance was noticed by each award show, while never standing a chance at taking any of them. His scene-stealing effort was commendable, but not awards stuff. His nomination was his reward.

Odds of winning: 100/1

4. Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

Notable awards: BFCA, Chicago Critics

Notable nominations: BAFTA, Golden Globes, SAG

Case for the Oscar: He was the critic darling in the category, which doesn’t always lead to Oscar gold. If one of the film’s 3 acting nominations is going to take home the award, he stands the best chance. He was borderline lead, which helps him against the nominees with much shorter screentime. He is one of the most respected actors in the world, which the Academy may want to reinforce by giving him a second Oscar in 7 years. He had the most difficult role of the bunch, and he nailed ever nuance of his volatile character. If the Academy doesn’t hate The Master as much as it appears that they did, then this will be our winner.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2002 Best Actor: Jack Nicholson. He was the critical favorite throughout the season, but the film underwhelmed in its nominations count, only garnering acting nods. He had won less than a decade prior, which perhaps made some voters reluctant to give another award to him so soon. He made a strong push for the Oscar against a host of former winners but came up just short.e our winner. ever nuance of his volatile character.er ion was his reward.

Odds of winning: 6/1

3. Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, SAG

Case for the Oscar: He hasn’t had that signature moment at all this awards season, but he is still right there in the running. There are so many members of the Academy that grew up watching De Niro and idolize him. His first nomination in over 20 years is the perfect chance for all of those members to finally express their appreciation for his career and heartfelt performance in the Weinstein awards train. His performance is not as showy or scene-stealing as any of the other 4 nominees, but his name and movie’s popularity will carry him into serious contention. If the Academy wants to go with Chastain or Riva for Best Actress, then this will be the easiest way to award Silver Linings Playbook.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1974 Best Supporting Actor: Fred Astaire. More than 30 years past his prime, the ever-popular actor got one last great supporting role and made a serious run at the Oscar. He still had a ton of fans, and while it would have been an acceptable win, it would be looked back on as a win with an agenda, throwing one last bone to one of the all time greats.

Odds of winning: 11/2

2. Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

Notable awards: BAFTA, Golden Globes

Notable nominations: none

Case for the Oscar: His role is the most perfectly-written of the year. He is the main character in the movie, giving him much more time to show off. He just won in 2009, but there still may be some leftover love for one of the greatest character performances in recent memory. The two televised wins certainly help his case, despite receiving a strange SAG snub. Critics have called him the best character actor in the world, so when all of these other performances are more understated, one big beautiful showy performance could be the one to get the gold.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1993 Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones. A couple years removed from a very popular character performance in one of the Best Picture contenders, he was nominated again for a lead performance in the supporting category. Some may argue that it was too effortless, but nobody could deny his importance to the story and his scene-stealing ability. His win is seen as a bizarre choice in retrospect, but one that is really hard to take issue with given the actor and popularity of the film.

Odds of winning: 10/3

1. Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

Notable awards: SAG

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes

Case for the Oscar: He is in one of the Best Picture frontrunners. He has the very patriotic role in the movie, garnering the biggest reaction from the audience. He effortlessly steals several scenes, and he is an actor that the industry loves. He is in a film with other acting nominees, which could take away some votes if they want to spread the wealth. He won almost 20 years ago, so they may want to give him a second Oscar before actors who have won in the last 10 years. He looked…uh…less than thrilled to be at Golden Globes without winning, but the odds are that he will not have to suffer through that at the Oscars. Or he could just take off early like Eddie Murphy in ’06.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2004 Best Supporting Actor: Morgan Freeman. He was not really represented well in the critic awards, but he morphed into the frontrunner after several nominations and important mentions during the award season. He was one of the most respected actors out there, and the Academy was running out of legitimate chances to reward him. He got swept in with the popularity of the well-acted Best Picture contender, and won over a terrific group of nominees.

Odds of winning: 3/1

Previous articles:

Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

Best Supporting Actress

Thoughts? Comments? Coming up: Best Actress!

Read More

Reactions to the Nominations: 2013

First off, I loved the new announcement ceremony. It makes it more like a mini-production, rather than just a press conference. It gave a moment between categories, rather than just rattling them off and having to wait until the ticker at the bottom relays them to really process the nominations. Anyway, there are some random inclusions, as usual, but not a ton of shockers. This was made even more interesting by having it take place in front of all of the major awards shows. We still know nothing. I like that. Well, check out what the Academy decided to single out this year and my brief thoughts on it. Enjoy and happy awards season!

Best Picture
Amour

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted: 7 for 9

Reactions: So, it appears even in a year such as this, where there are a clear five films that have stood above the rest throughout the precursors, there are still going to be 9 films nominated. I predicted 8 would be the number. 5% of first place votes seems very significant to me, but maybe it is this spread out every year. I predicted The Master and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel for the top 9, which were replaced by Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild. What this says to me is that Micheal Haneke might be the most popular foreign director in the world (first BP nom for a foreign film since Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon), and nearly every year will have that no-budget indie that will get taken all the way from Sundance to the “Big Dance”. This is not too bad of a lineup. It is much better than the train wreck of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and War Horse last year. It is a solid group for a solid, somewhat below average year overall.

Preliminary prediction: Silver Linings Playbook

Best Director

Michael Haneke – Amour

Ang Lee – Life of Pi

David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: Wait a minute…what? Where’s Ben Affleck!? Really, Academy? Seriously? Come on. That movie screamed Oscar and was probably the most complex direction of the year. He is one of the best directors working right now, makes three home runs in a row, the third of which totally catered to your style, and you cannot nominate him, why? Because he’s Ben Affleck. The day after we see the Baseball Writers of America becoming the story in the sports world by not giving anyone access to the Hall of Fame and making what amounts to a political decision not to put a certain era of players into a baseball museum, the Oscar voters do something similar by deciding to snub the best director of the year just because he used to be a lousy actor and used to fill the tabloids with his love life and whatnot. Give me a break. What do you want the guy to do? Anyway… I digress. I predicted 3 correctly, missing Haneke and Zeitlin by predicting Affleck and Bigelow. I cannot believe that two of the stone cold locks of the season did not make it into the most important category, but hey it was a surprise right? Sure, but not in the category we like to see them in.

Preliminary Prediction: Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

Denzel Washington – Flight

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I knew that last spot would come down to John Hawkes and Hugh Jackman. Jackman was average and one of the worst parts of Les Mis, but he was the lead in a movie the Academy loved. So I guess that is good enough for them. But not for Ben Affleck. I am surprised they didn’t give him the producing shaft and give 2 noms to Clooney instead. Here we have what appears like a one horse race, but I have a sneaky feeling that DDL might get a challenge from Phoenix. They clearly didn’t love The Master, but three acting noms is huge. They might want to give it one of them and not give Day-Lewis a third Oscar when he doesn’t really work all that often. Wishful thinking, maybe/probably…

Preliminary Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts – The Impossible

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had former winners Rachel Weisz and Marion Cotillard in for Wallis and Riva. I love the fact that the oldest ever and youngest ever Best Actress nominees are in the same category. Wallis was terrific in her movie, and definitely deserved to be singled out, but judging by my predictions, I clearly did not think Beastswould be this popular. This category only has two contenders, and judging by the massive love for SLP, I gotta think it is going the way of the budding superstar.

Preliminary Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin – Argo

Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had it written where it was possible that Waltz could get in over DiCaprio. I almost expected it, but I went the other way. The Academy really went out of their way to not be predictable this year. They snubbed some of the biggest contenders in several categories. I have no problem with the group of former winners, though. It is by far the most wide open acting category in years. Which winner will they want to give a second Oscar to first? It won’t be Arkin, who received the throw-away nomination of the year with no chance of winning. Waltz was really a lead, so maybe they go that way? Hoffman gave one of the performances of the year and probably has the best chance of winning in his movie. Tommy Lee Jones has the critical favorite role in the leading nomination-getter. There is two-time winner Robert De Niro in the most popular film with actors. I feel that with all of the Academy members who look up to De Niro and want a comeback so badly that a win here would finally be their way of re-validating him. The Golden Globe snub is still confusing to me, but it happens sometimes.

Preliminary Prediction: Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – The Master

Sally Field – Lincoln

Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

Helen Hunt – The Sessions

Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Well, I had Jacki Weaver on my longlist back in like July. After the precursors started and she didn’t show up anywhere, I knew it was over for her. It’s a random nomination, but a good one. She is a great character actress. I had Nicole Kidman getting that fifth spot. This award is going to Anne Hathaway, but that doesn’t matter. Can anyone name the last time we had a movie with nominees in all four acting categories?...anyone… That’s right, Reds. 1981. That is how unprecedented the love the Academy has for Weinstein…err…Silver Linings Playbook. That is an incredible achievement. This is a solid group of nominees, actually. And it is official…Amy Adams: the next Thelma Ritter. She is nominated for every remotely serious movie she does, yet never really comes close to winning. That has to change.

Preliminary Prediction: Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

Original Screenplay

Amour – Michael Haneke

Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino

Flight – John Gatins

Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola

Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I always look for that random screenplay nomination (The Messenger, Margin Call, In Bruges) to tell me what indie is going to be one of the best movies of the year. The only oddball nom we got was freaking Flight. Horrible. I went against my better judgment and put The Master in the fifth spot. This is an interesting category. Amour seems to be this year’s Talk to Her. Zero Dark Thirty might not be as surefire a winner here like we thought, and Django might have a bit more backing than we thought. It is an interesting race here, but for now, I am going with the upset.

Preliminary Prediction: Amour – Michael Haneke

Adapted Screenplay

Argo – Chris Terrio

Beasts of the Southern Wild – Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin

Life of Pi – David Magee

Lincoln – Tony Kushner

Silver Linings Playbook – David O. Russell

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: It appears all is forgiven with David O. Russell. I guess they can’t do the same for Affleck. Ok, I will stop now. But seriously they probably would have snubbed his movie here if he had received a writing credit. Ok, really done now. Continuing the trend, I had Beasts out in favor of The Perks of Being a Wallflower, which I thought would have a big fan base, but I guess not. This one is over before it even starts.

Preliminary Prediction: Lincoln – Tony Kushner

Cinematography

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Zero Dark Thirty and The Master in and Anna Karenina and Django out. That is a great oddball choice by the Academy, though, putting Robert Richardson’s terrific work in this category. Too bad it was at the expense of The Master, one of the more impressive camera jobs in years. I can only hope that Roger Deakins takes this for his magnificent work on Skyfall, but it isn’t happening. There is a massive epic with CGI, you know... That has to win…

Preliminary Prediction: Life of Pi

Art Direction Production Design

Anna Karenina

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: BOOM! My first/only perfect category, even if I can’t remember that they changed the name of it. Everything here is about normal. Costume dramas, more CGI, yawn…

Preliminary Prediction: Lincoln

Costume Design

Anna Karenina

Les Miserables

Lincoln

Mirror Mirror

Snow White and the Huntsman

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Cloud Atlas in for Snow White and the Huntsman. Two Snow White films in the same category? Nice. Neither of them are winning this.

Preliminary Prediction: Les Miserables

Sound Mixing

Argo

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had Zero Dark Thirty, The Dark Knight Rises, and The Avengers in and Lincoln, Argo, and Skyfall out. I forgot that this is a sneaky important category. Most winners are mentioned here. It is just crazy that Argo gets the shaft in Director, but it is everywhere else it needs to be.

Preliminary Prediction: Les Miserables

Editing

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Les Miserables in for SLP. So, if history is any indication, we officially have three films with a chance: Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, and Life of Pi. For the record, Ordinary People (1980) was the last to win Best Picture without an Editing nomination (that is probably what cost Brokeback Mountain the top prize), and no film since Driving Miss Daisy (1989) has won without a Directing nomination. Interesting developments.

Preliminary Prediction: Zero Dark Thirty

Sound Editing

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had The Dark Knight Rises (shut out, by the way), The Avengers, and Looperin for Argo, Django, and Zero Dark Thirty. Nothing really to comment on here. Life of Pi really is this year’s Hugoand Argo somehow pops up in an action movie category. Alright…

Preliminary Prediction: Skyfall

Visual Effects

The Avengers

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi

Prometheus

Snow White and the Huntsman

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had John Carter and The Dark Knight Risesin for Prometheus and Snow White. This appears to be a competitive category, but recently this award seems to be going to contenders.

Preliminary Prediction: Life of Pi

Makeup and Hairstyling

Hitchcock

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Predicted: 1 for 3

Reactions: I had Looperand Men in Black 3 in for Hitchcock and The Hobbit. This is a very standard Oscar category. I guess I went with a couple underdog ones, since they do like to throw a Norbit or Click in there every once in a while.

Preliminary Prediction: Les Miserables

Song

“Before My Time” – Chasing Ice

“Suddenly” – Les Miserables

“Pi’s Lullaby” – Life of Pi

“Skyfall” – Skyfall

“Everybody Needs a Friend” – Ted

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had the Paul Williams Still Alive, Brave, and Hunger Games songs in for Chasing Ice (what?), Life of Pi, and Ted. Second time in three years that the host is nominated at his ceremony. If I am not mistaken, I believe that a Bond film has never won in this category, so Oscar will find a way to screw this up too.

Preliminary Prediction: “Everybody Needs a Friend” – Ted

Score

Anna Karenina

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had The Master and Zero Dark Thirty in for Skyfall and Anna Karenina. Is it just me, or is Anna Karenina one of the most curiously underperforming movies this year? No real box office, tons of early buzz, four technical nominations. I am still trying to figure out what happened to Keira Knightley. Let’s see…Argo’s score is certainly this year’s Michael Clayton/The Hurt Locker, the one that we will just have to take the voters’ word for it because no one remembers it. Wow, they really hated The Master. Skyfall here? Awesome. I kinda wish we would have seen one major nom for it, the second best of all the Bond films, but oh well.

Preliminary Prediction: Life of Pi

Documentary

5 Broken Cameras

The Gatekeepers

How to Survive a Plague

The Invisible War

Searching for Sugar Man

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had This is Not a Film and Ai Weiwei in for 5 Broken Cameras and The Gatekeepers. I am not too familiar with any of these because none of them have really been widely released or publicized this year. This category is always a bit strange, anyway. I will just take a stab at a semi-upset.

Preliminary Prediction: The Invisible War

Foreign Language Film

Amour

War Witch

No

A Royal Affair

Kon-Tiki

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had The Intouchables in for A Royal Affair. I really thought that was the winner in this category. I never know what to think here. Sometimes the clear favorite (Pan’s Labyrinth, for instance) loses despite several nominations. Sometimes that movie (like last year’s An Education) was winning regardless. Sometimes that favorite (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) is not even submitted by its country for eligibility in this category. I am not sure whether they just love Amour that much and will give it whatever it can, or whether they will want it to really compete for the top awards and not hold it back. I just cannot go against it, though.

Preliminary Prediction: Amour

Animated Feature

Brave

Frankenweenie

ParaNorman

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Wreck-It Ralph

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had From Up on Poppy Hill and Rise of the Guardians in for ParaNorman and The Pirates. This category is really wide open. I am not sure if they want Tim Burton to be a winner yet, but this would be a way to give him a back-handed award, rather than a Best Director. Eh…just for the hell of it, I am going with my heart.

Preliminary Prediction: Wreck-It Ralph

Overall predictions: 72/107; 67.29% (69.23% in 2012)

Without the last 5 categories: 57/82; 69.51% (73.17% in 2012)

On the Big 8 categories: 33/44; 75.00% (79.55% in 2012)

So, I was slightly down from last year, which was slightly down from the year before that. I attribute that to not seeing as many movies the last couple years. Plus, this year was just weird, especially for the top categories. No real off-the-wall Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah-esque shockers, but just some minor surprises. I can and will do better next year!

5 coolest first-time nominees:

(there is no way I can come up with 10 this year)

1. Seth MacFarlane

2. Adele

3. Bradley Cooper

4. Quvenzhane Wallis

5. Roman Coppola

10 worst snubs:

1. Ben Affleck for Best Director

2. The Masterfor Best Cinematography, Sound Mixing, and Best Original Score

3. Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Supporting Actor

4. Looper for Best Original Screenplay

5. The Hunger Gamesfor Best Production Design

6. Kathryn Bigelow for Best Director (I am assuming)

7. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter for Best Visual Effects

8. The Perks of Being a Wallflower for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress (Emma Watson)

9. Matthew McConnaugey for Best Actor (Killer Joe) and Best Supporting Actor (Magic Mike)

10. Richard Gere for Best Actor (getting used to that…)

So, after a discussion with Terry, we came up with the best possible comparison of this year to a past year: 1998. The huge Spielberg production was the odds-on favorite (Saving Private Ryan/Lincoln). There is a beloved foreign film nominated for Best Picture, Director, Acting, Screenplay, etc. (Life if Beautiful/Amour). There is the misunderstood and unconventional military movie (The Thin Red Line/Zero Dark Thirty). There is the popular costume drama (Elizabeth/Les Miserables)…bit of a stretch on that one, I know. There is probably the best movie of the year that got major snubs come nomination morning (The Truman Show/Argo). The movie that is going to take the whole thing, however, is the dark horse comedy distributed by the Weinsteins (Shakespeare in Love/Silver Linings Playbook). They will still throw Spielberg his directing bone, but the crowd-pleaser is the movie that will somehow come out on top for Best Picture. It will be interesting to see how the next few days shape the race, with the Critics Choice Awards tonight and the Golden Globes in three days. I love this time of year!

Stay tuned for our Fifth Annual Oscar Challenge! What do you think of this year’s crop of nominees? Who are you predicting to win? Let me know in the comments.

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