2014 MLB Predictions: AL East

It's that magical time of year again.  I firmly believe that baseball Opening Day should be a national holiday so everyone can spend the day enjoying our National Pastime.  With the long grind of 162 games ahead of them, every team is optimistic that this year could be the year.  This off-season, big names were on the move while young top prospects won jobs on the big league rosters.  How will the final standings look when October comes around?  I know I'm a little late getting these predictions out, but they were all made before the season started.

Let's start our look at the 2014 MLB season by previewing the most unpredictable division in all of baseball: the AL East.  For the last few years, this division has had the ability from year to year to legitimately be in any standings order at season's end.  This is shown by how wrong my predictions were last year.  However, one thing I had right was that every team in the division would be good, predicting that the cellar team would still be within 5-10 games of .500 (Blue Jays finished 14 games under .500).  This year is no different.  Every team has seemed to re-load for yet another run with one of the greatest players of our generation making his final tour around the league.  Let's see what could happen.

1.  New York Yankees

The pinstripes always have to be in the mix.  Last year, they did finish in fourth, but were still 8 games over .500 with a seriously depleted roster due to injuries.  They went out in free-angency and made some big splashes.  Even though the biggest splash of the off-season was Robinson Cano leaving the pinstripes, the Yankees added one of the top lead-off hitters in baseball in Jacoby Ellsbury from the rival Red Sox, possibly the most productive offensive catcher of the last decade in Brian McCann, a player so clutch it only makes sense he's a Yankee in Carlos Beltran, and the biggest name on the pitching market in Masahiro Tanaka who is starting the season as their 4th starter.  They spent more money this off-season than the Rays will spend over the next 5 years.  Add that to the fact that they now have a healthy Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter, and this team has to be the favorite in the division.  Now last year I predicted the Blue Jays would win the division because of the huge blockbuster deals they made over the off-season.  That didn't quite work out, but the Yankees are not the Blue Jays.  They have an experienced coach in Joe Girardi, and all the pieces they added are proven veterans that know what it means to win.  I expect them to rise to the top and send Derek Jeter out in style.

2.  Boston Red Sox

There is a constant debate in baseball right now between the old school and new school thinkers.  Can baseball be managed and predicted strictly on statistics, or are things like chemistry and attitude still valuable?  No argument for the old school way of thinking would be more convincing than the 2013 Boston Red Sox.  In 2012, they were in the cellar and sold off most of their top players.  Last year, they got a new manager, added a couple "clubhouse" guys (a term sabermatricians cringe at), and went from worst in the division to winning it all.  A sabermatrician would say this doesn't make sense.  However, it happened.  This year, it's a very similar roster.  They lost Ellsbury and are replacing him with a rookie (Jackie Bradley, Jr.) and a veteran making attempting a comeback (Grady Sizemore).  However, as long as they have guys like David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia leading the way (without a manger that gets in their way), they will be at the top of the league.  Them being in second has less to with what they lost and more to do with what the Yankees gained.  The Yankees ad Red Sox back on top ... all is right in the world.

3.  Baltimore Orioles

I bet the Orioles wish they could switch divisions.  Baltimore has been one of the strongest teams to not go anywhere over the last couple years.  Sharing a division with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays makes this an impossible division to break through in.  They have a great young core led by Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, and Manny Machado.  They made some big moves in free angency, adding Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez.  They have a great chance of making a splash.  They would be poised for a deep playoff run if they didn't have to play in this division.  They will instead be fighting for a wild card spot and fall just a little short.

4.  Tampa Bay Rays

In another case of "How the heck do they do what they do," we the Fighting Joe Madden's.  This team has looked very similar to teams that usually are found in the cellars of divisions.  They have solid pitching, but the offense is average at best, embarrassing at worst.  No team has been no hit more recently than the Rays.  With the shopping spree of the Yankees and the emergence of the Orioles, this Wild Card team from last year will drop back a couple notches in the best division in baseball.

5.  Toronto Blue Jays

When thinking about the biggest additions and subtractions of each team entering this season, the biggest subtraction I could think of for the Blue Jays is expectations.  Last year, they went all in, buying and trading for All Stars and Cy Young candidates to build a superpower to rival their divisional foes.  Well, that did not pan out as some players were injured while others simply underwhelmed.  The biggest highlight of the season was discovering that they have the biggest character in all of baseball.  Yes, he is Japanese.  They didn't really lose any of the major players, but this year the expectations are just much lower.  With the strength of everyone else in the division, this is the consensus cellar dweller of the AL East.  However, would it greatly surprise anyone if they made a run at a wild card spot.  Not at all.

There is the AL East.  Stay tuned for more.

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An Ode to the 2013 Boston Red Sox

           871 days ago, as I was eagerly awaiting spending some quality time with the other contributors of this website in the days leading up to a certain wedding of the century, I watched Game 6 of the NBA Finals between the Mavericks and the Heat.  The Heat had led the series two games to one, but Dallas had hung tough and somehow persevered through the next two games.  Yes, it may have taken a LeBrick James collapse, the likes of which have not been seen in . . . well, 872 days, but it was still a great series.  In Game Six, with Dirk recovering from flu-like symptoms, Jason Terry, Jason Kidd, and Puerto Rican Danny DeVito stepped up huge, the team shot 50 percent, and the Mavericks made this infamous momentfunny for one last time.  Who would have ever thought a team coached by Jim Carrey could have gotten so far?

            I watched the game with my dad, went home to my mom’s house, and celebrated like it was high school all over again – geeking out in my room, watching postgame highlights, very happy but oh so lonely.  If someone had told me it would be 871 days before the Red Sox won the World Series and I would be this happy for a sports championship again . . . well, let’s just review the evidence.

2011 World Series, Game 6 (Cardinals defeat Rangers): Here’s the YouTube clip.  No wait, I can’t.  Can’t post this.  Can’t watch this.  So painful.  I hate God’s Team.

2012 Super Bowl (Giants defeat Patriots): Can’t watch clips of this one either, but Gisele’s rant sums it all up.  No, Tom can’t pass the ball and catch it at the same time.  His receivers let him down.  But fortunately, we got rid of those idiots Welker, Hernandez, and Woodhead and replaced them with Hall of Fame receivers Medula Amendola, some rookies, and Austin Collie.  No worries there.

           

2012 NCAA Championship (Kentucky defeats Kansas): Calipari avenges his 2008 championship game loss to Bill Self, as Wildcat players score more points than their combined SAT scores.  That is, the scores the reported.  Mass St. (and the Saltz household) is silent and everyone goes back to school the next day.

           

2012 and 2013 NBA Finals (LeBrons defeat Zombie Sonics and Spurs): Didn’t watch too much of either of these series.  In fact, during Game Seven of the Spurs series, I left midway through the game and went to go see Now You See Me.  Why couldn’t the magicians in that movie transport me away from this agony?

           

2012 World Series (??? defeats ???): Don’t remember it, couldn’t have been worth watching.  Truthfully, baseball doesn’t really get watched when the Red Sox lose 93 games.

           

2012 and 2013 BCS Championships (Alabama defeats teams not as good as Oregon): Like the NBA Finals, I didn’t watch much of these games.  It did give me time to plow snow out of the driveway, scrape ice from the car windshield, read for class, and catch some excellent January releases such as Ghost Rider:Spirit of Vengeance and Movie 43.

            So, in other words, the time period between June 12, 2011 and October 30, 2013 left plenty to be desired in the area of my sports teams’ success in championships.  This doesn’t even account for every freak New England Patriot injury, every Jayhawk March Madness collapse, and every freakish St. Louis Cardinals comeback victory.  I don’t claim to be more cursed than all over fans, but I’ve had my share of bad, rotten fortune.  In fact, the only three things that gave me any sort of happiness were, in order: (1) Discovering and plowing through the entirety of Breaking Bad, (2) Seeing Obama reelected, and (3) Going to Las Vegas with Todd and winning $100 at blackjack in the Party Pit at the Excalibur.   Yes, it’s been that kind of two-and-a-half years.

            That’s why seeing the Red Sox win the World Series last night was so simultaneously thrilling, exciting, unexpected, wonderful, and genuinely cathartic.  I needed a sports cleansing more than John Travolta needed a shower by the end of Battlefield Earth.  I needed a reason to restore my faith in professional sports (and the world in general) again.  I needed a reason to laugh and leap up from my chair and lose my voice and get told repeatedly by my wife to stop talking about the freaking World Series already. 

            Let’s review some of the reasons why the Red Sox winning the World Series was so wonderful:

1. It was unexpected. Between the final four weeks of the 2011 season and the beginning of this season, the Red Sox were a combined 76-113.  During that horrific 189 game stretch, Boston went through three managers; endured major, potentially career-altering injuries to Papi, John Lackey, Jacoby Ellsbury, Andrew Bailey, and Clay Bucholz; and saw some of its most instrumental 2007 heroes (Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kevin Youklis, Jonathan Papelbon) leave the team under bitter circumstances.  The players and the fans revolted.  The beer and fried chicken were finally removed from the clubhouse.  The payroll situation was a mess in 2012, and many speculated that the 2013 contracts given to Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, and Johnny Gomes were wildly excessive.  Papi was 37, Lackey (recovering from Tommy John surgery, a messy public divorce, and an ERA of 6.75 in the final two months of ’11) was 34, Napoli was 31, and Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youklis, and Cody Ross were gone forever.  John Farrell had a .475 winning percentage as manager of a talented Blue Jays team (a squad who some misguided observerspredicted to win the AL East).  With everyone talking about Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa, and the Yankees, no one thought the aging, unhappy, injury-prone Red Sox could amount to a hill of beans. 

2. It was unpredictable and sometimes tumultuous.  No one remembers this, but most of the Red Sox buzz going into the 2013 season surrounded rookie phenom Jackie Bradley Jr. and Joel Hanrahan (that gives you a good indication of how little Boston fans really expected).  A 20-8 start was overlooked in Boston due to the tragedy of the Boston Marathon bombings.  Then the roof began to fall in and doubters began to strut their fatalistic forecasts.  They went 8-12 during a three week span in May which included Tito Francona’s return to Fenway (a 12-3 shellackingby the Indians).  Then, disaster struck: On June 9, Bucholz (who led the league with 9-0 record and 1.71 ERA) reported a strain in his neck, and he was put on the disabled list until September.  The rest of the pitching staff played well, but not exceptional.  Bucholz’s nine wins were, incredibly, the best on the team until Lester got his 10^thvictory on July 28.  Ryan Dempster won one game between June 25 and August 30, Lackey went through a stretch where he was 2-7, and Jake Peavy’s acquisition did not exactly give Red Sox fans confidence (especially after they had to give up the defensive excellence of Jose Iglesias to AL rival Detroit).  It was the offense that excelled, however, and a rejuvenated Ortiz had his best season statistically since 2007, according to WAR.

3.  Their postseason play was thrilling. Boston first dismantled the frisky Rays, a perennially strong division rival that had their eye on the Red Sox ever since they erased the Sox’s five-game division lead in July over a span of only two weeks.  Boston throttled Tampa aces David Price and Matt Moore, giving them both losses and ERAs above 9.00.  Then, in the ALCS, the Red Sox faced the defending AL Champs Tigers – a team with the league’s best starting pitchers (Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer) and best hitters (Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder).  After managing one run and only a handful of hits in the first 16 innings of the series, the Sox grabbed victory from the hands of defeat with Papi’s series-saving Game Two grand slam (it’s hard to see them taking four of the next five from Detroit without that home run).  Victorino’s grand slam in Game Six was as improbable as it was thrilling.  And then, there was the World Series, where the bats of both teams seemed indeterminately stunted.  When St. Louis took a 2-1 lead after the controversial Game Three finish, it seemed like the series might not even go back to Boston. But Papi, Lester, and opportunistic hitting once again saved the day, and last night, when the series returned to Fenway, true fans knew that the outcome was never in doubt.

            Maybe this sounds overly reactionary, but I can’t really think of many better recent stories in sports than the 2013 Red Sox.  How many times does a team go from worst-to-first with a majority of new players and a new manager?  How many times has a team had to win back fans after scandal and controversy tore that team apart?  How many times has a team defeated the league’s two best teams (according to SRS), including four road wins, en route to its third championship in ten years?  How many times has a team gone 95 years between clinching a title at home? 

            I will always remember three things from this season’s 2013 Red Sox and their incredible postseason run.  The first thing (whether I like it or not) will be that insane playthat ended Game Three. Let’s touch on that for a second.  When I first saw the play, I was understandably furious as a Red Sox fan.  How could a judgment call like that end a critical World Series game?  How could obstruction be called when Craig initiated contact with Middlebrooks by putting his hands on him?  Wasn’t Middlebrooks about two feet off the baseline, creating a clear path for the runner?  And (the question that everyone asked), what is Middlebrooks supposed to do?  Now (and I understand this is 100% convenient and with the luxury of hindsight), I look back on the play as another element that makes baseball great.  How insane was that?  Could any other sport really offer an ending that unique, controversial, memorable, and just plain weird?  Plus, had obstruction not been invoked and Boston had won Game Three, the series would not have gone back to Boston.

            The second thing I will always remember is Ortiz’s insane postseason batting (.668 BA, 1.188 SLG vs. the Cardinals).  I never thought a player could eclipse Barry Bonds’ numbers in the 2002 World Series (.471 BA, 1.294 SLG vs. the Angels), but Ortiz proved me wrong.  Papi left the most indelible image of the 2013 MLB postseason, made a celebrity out of Officer Horgan, and won a truck that proved He’s Strong.  Let’s pray to Jesus he’s not taking steroids.  The final thing I will remember is Stephen Drew’s home run in the fourth inning.  Why?  Drew had a fantastic World Series defensively, making incredible throw after incredible throw.  He’s never been an All-Star or Golden Glove winner (he’s mostly been AWOL since he left the Diamondbacks), is the brother of the most hated Red Sox player of the last decade, and was in the midst of a historically awful offensive postseason performance (going into Game Six, he was in the middle of a 4 for 50 slump in October.  Yes, you read that stat correctly: 4 for 50). 

            If you know baseball well enough, you know it’s a zero-sum game.  You know that historically bad slumps like Drew’s are just as freakish and ephemeral as historically great streaks like Ortiz (who struck out and had three walks last night).  You know that at some point, those slumps have to end (it’s the same logic that was used to understand the logic behind Aaron Boone’shome run).  The game is karmic and circular and mysterious.  Therefore, Drew had to end his slump at some point, and he did so at the most opportune moment possible.  The Red Sox led 4-0, Michael Wacha’s improbable postseason success was over, and fans began to count down the remaining innings.  I was so happy for Drew, and I was happy that I had known that it had to happen at some point.  Just like this Red Sox teams and sports in general, I suppose.  At some point, losing and heartbreak has to come to an end.  The 2013 Red Sox reminded all of us of that.

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2013 MLB Preview and Predictions: AL East

Nothing gets me more excited in sports than Baseball Opening Day.  It just wouldn't be Spring without every team starting fresh in their bid for a World Series title.  I have been following the baseball off-season and Spring Training obsessively over the last few months.  The World Baseball Classic is a great sideshow to the baseball Spring Training as well (which was won by the Dominican Republic if you weren't paying attention). So here I am going to give my preview and predictions for each team and division as we look ahead to another great summer of America's Pastime.

One thing I am excited about looking at this season is the new realignment of the teams.  The Houston Astros have moved from the NL Central to the AL West which doesn't seem like a very significant move at first glance.  Now all the divisions are equal.  What's the big deal?  The main way this affects the whole league is now there are an odd number of teams in both leagues.  This means for every team to be playing everyday, interleague play has to be scheduled everyday of the season.  This will start Opening Day with the Angels opening up in Cincinnati playing the Reds.  Each team shouldn't have to play any more interleague games than usual.  They will just be spread out instead of all bunched up in a two or three week time frame which I had been wanting to see for years.  So this is a great change and addition to the league.

We might as well start in the AL East because, let's face it, in a lot of ways it is the pulse of the baseball landscape.  This year is no different as it has become the best division top to bottom in the league.  Any team in this division could end up in the cellar or winning the World Series.  It all depends on how what is shown on paper plays out on the field.

1.  Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are the latest team to try and buy their way to a deep postseason run (something that everyone in this division is quite familiar to).  A lot of times this strategy doesn't really pay off.  However, the way the Blue Jays have constructed this team leads me to believe that they could really have a shot at being as good as advertised.  The bats are going to be great, from Jose Reyes leading things off to Jose Bautista being healthy again in the middle of the order, but for me what makes this team great is the starting rotation.  The piece everyone is talking about is the reigning NL Cy Young award winner RA Dickey.  I honestly don't know how well he will be able to reproduce what he did last year, but I don't think he needs to because of what he has behind him.  Next in line, the Jays have guys like Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle who they got when the Marlins traded away their entire roster.  If Johnson is healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the league.  Buehrle has been one of the most consistently efficient starting pitchers of the last 10 years.  To round out the rotation, they throw out there Brandon Morrow who has quietly become a very solid starter that could be an All-Star in the next year or two, and JA Happ, who beat out former ace Ricky Romero for the last slot and has shown flashes of being the top line starter his scouting reports said he could be when he first came up.  (Remember, JA Happ was the centerpiece of the package of prospects the Astros got back from the Phillies in exchange for Roy Oswalt a few years ago.)  With this rotation, and the explosive lineup that has been assembled, it would take catastrophe (which isn't unheard of for these super-teams) for them not to at least be competing for the division.

2.  Tampa Bay Rays

These other four teams in this division all have massive upsides, but also have some glaring weaknesses.  The Rays I am placing at number two in this division because their weakness they have been able to overcome the last few seasons to be a quality team: offense.  Outside of Evan Longoria (when healthy), this team is average at best at the plate, but they always seem to get just enough to win on a consistent basis.  They have these opportunities thanks to an outstanding pitching staff.  Even with their small payroll forcing them to jettison Wade Davis and ace James Shields, they still have a core of great pitchers thanks to a never-ending well of quality pitchers buried in their system.  Oh yeah, David Price helps too.  The pitching will be great again, however I have to think the hitting weaknesses will catch up with them at some point.  The Rays have been no hit more over the last few seasons than most teams have in their franchises' histories.  They can't keep winning with this formula, can they?  If this worked every time, my Mariners would have been a playoff team last year...

3.  Baltimore Orioles

One of the great surprises of last season was the O's rise to the top of the AL East.  They had been building their team up from within, and it all finally paid off with a Wild Card birth and a run in the post-season.  I have them dropping from 2nd to 3rd this year for a few reasons.  First, it is really hard to repeat that kind of success in this division.  Last year, they caught everyone by surprise.  This year, everyone knows what they are about.  They won't be allowed to sneak by anybody this year, which leads to my second reason.  Jump start teams like the O's were last year usually drop off a little the year after.  Part of this is because of what I already said with people gunning for them this time around.  Also, when you are a young player and finally have a year where you reach that potential, rarely does it become consistent right away.  Look for guys like Adam Jones, Chris Davis, and Matt Wieters to fall off a little from the great seasons they had last year.  Also, I doubt their unknown rotation will be able to duplicate all the success they had last year.  They will be good, but not as great as they were.

4.  New York Yankees

I hate to predict this because they always find a way to make the playoffs every year.  I wouldn't doubt if they are in the playoff hunt this year again, but they just have too many things working against them this year to make it likely.  First, they're old.  CC Sabathia is not young anymore, and Kuroda the same.  Pettitte is their 3 starter who they brought out of retirement a few years ago.  Their lineup features guys like Ichiro and Vernon Wells who have moved on from other teams due to them being in the twilight of their careers.  These are the healthy players, which is their other issue entering the season: injuries.  Four of their best players (Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson) are injured entering the season with two of them (Rodriguez, Teixeira) likely not to play this season at all.  The team does not feature much depth to replace this production either.  The Yankees will be running guys like Eduardo Nunez and Lyle Overbay out in their Opening Day lineup.  That doesn't sound like a typical Yankees lineup.  That's why it won't be a typical Yankees season.  One thing that have going for them is I think Robinson Cano will be an MVP candidate this year.

5.  Boston Red Sox

About 5 years ago, I bet a friend of mine that no team besides the Yankees or Red Sox would make the playoffs from the AL East in the next decade.  Of course, the next season the Rays were in the World Series.  Now five years later, I am predicting these two teams to be in the cellar of the division.  They just got too old way too fast.  The Red Sox imploded last year due to dissension between the team leaders and the manager (which is never good).  This year the Sox brought back an old Francona disciple (John Farrell) to be manager to try and get things back to "normal."  I think it will help, but their talent level is just not there right now.  Mike Napoli will be a strong addition.  If Shane Victorino can get back to his form from a few years ago he will be great.  If not, he will be booed out of the stadium every night.  Ellsbury has to stay healthy (which has never happened).  David Ortiz needs to come back healthy and productive at some point (which will be tough at his age).  With that said, there are holes in the lineup beyond those question marks.  The pitching should be all right if Lester and Lackey bounce back (Lester from a bad year, Lackey from an injury).  Joel Hanrahan is a great addition as the new closer, but I don't know how many opportunities he'll have.  I don't think they will be a 100-loss team.  (I honestly think whoever the cellar team is in this division should be within 5-10 games of .500.)  However, with the competition that this division has this year, Boston has not made enough improvements to get out of the cellar.  They did a decent job starting over, but now it needs to re-build, and in Boston the re-building better not take long!


So there is the AL East.  Stay tuned for more previews and predictions.

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