Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions: Divisional Round

            Last weekend, three road teams won (and the lone victorious home team needed to overcome a 28-point second half deficit).  The biggest underdog of the weekend won by a bigger margin than any other team; a team regarded as inept on the road won in the freezing outdoors; the best team at protecting the ball in the regular season turned it over four times; and football’s most conservative, boring, run-first offense somehow blew a four-touchdown lead despite a +3 turnover margin.  Predictable, last weekend was not.

            And yet guess who went 4-0 in his picks?  Guess who picked San Diego to win comfortably and for New Orleans to win in the final seconds?  Yours truly, that’s who.  Now that the gloating is complete, let’s proceed to my divisional round picks, which I’m positive will be 0-4.

            New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (+ 7½)

            January 11, 4:35pm EST, Fox.

            Let me be clear: I dislike the Seahawks and want them to lose.  I am not alone in this.  I want to believe that in exorcising their road demons last week in Philadelphia, the Saints have suddenly transformed themselves into the 2007 Giants and should be feared wherever they travel.  I want to believe that a Super Bowl winning coach-QB combination with a significantly improved defense can go on the road and beat a 2^nd year QB and a franchise all too familiar with playoff disappointment.

            But I can’t quite do it for a few reasons.  First, while the Saints deserve props for finally winning a playoff game on the road (something Seattle had never done until last season), the way they beat the Eagles wasn’t overwhelmingly impressive.  They had two turnovers, and did not force any takeaways.  Brees was shaky early and could not find the end zone in the first half.  Jimmy Graham looked mortal, and the Eagles’ horrible rush defense made Mark Ingram look immortal.  They beat a quarterback and coach who were making their first playoff appearance, and benefitted greatly from a key Riley Cooper dropped pass which would have been a touchdown. 

            Another reason is that when the Seahawks play the Saints at home, stuff like this happens.  Seattle outscored home opponents by an average of 15.4 points this season.  Their pass defense was remarkable; in a year when 13 teams passed for over 4,000 yards, the Seahawks defense allowed only 2,752 (the 2^ndbest pass defense – interestingly, the Saints’ – gave up 3,105 yards).  The last NFC defense to boast numbers like that?  The 2007 Buccaneers.  Seattle’s rush D gave up a league-low four touchdowns.  They led the NFL in takeaways, and their lone home loss to the Cardinals in Week 16 was fluky (Seattle had a +2 turnover margin and this play).

            If you want to look for clinks in the Seahawks’ armor, you can look at this: When Seattle wasn’t playing NFC West opponents, they were generally facing lousy teams.  Nine of their 13 victories came against teams with seven wins or fewer (New Orleans boasted only five such wins).  They also played only four playoff teams.  Perhaps the reason those pass D numbers are so outstanding is a reflection of the QBs they defeated: Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Chad Henne, Matt Schaub, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kellen Clemens (twice), Mike Glennon, Matt Ryan, Christian Ponder, Brees and Eli Manning.  Only two of those QBs had 4000+ yards passing.  Before the home loss to the Cardinals, the Seahawks struggled at home against Tennessee and Tampa Bay. 

            And there’s another disturbing stat for Seahawks fans: Their 2-2 record in December. It’s not like the 2012 Ravens had an outstanding December either, but take a look at the past few 1 seeds that finished December with a .500 record or worse:

TEAM	RECORD	DECEMBER RECORD	PLAYOFFS
2013 Falcons	13-3	2-2	L Conference Championship
2009 Saints	13-3	2-2	W Super Bowl
2008 Giants	12-4	2-3	L Division Round
2008 Titans	13-3	2-2	L Division Round
2007 Cowboys	13-3	2-2	L Division Round
2005 Colts	14-2	2-2	L Division Round

            In other words, those six 1 seeds finished a combined 4-5 in the playoffs after 12-13 December records (that 2009 Saints team rested their starters after winning 13 straight).  Does this mean anything?  Maybe it means that you shouldn’t have two weeks off when you aren’t playing your best football of the season.  Or maybe it means that since 2005, the playoffs have simply gotten wackier.  Of course, it is worth remembering that it was on December 2 that Seattle beat New Orleans by 27.

            I bring all this up, and yet I’m still picking the Seahawks.  Why?  When they take the field Saturday afternoon, they will be the better team.  They could be playing the ’85 Bears and the momentum from those fans would still make this team formidable.  If Percy Harvin returns, they will have the deep threat downfield that perfects their sophisticated offensive scheme.  Richard Sherman is capable of shredding Kenny Stills and Lance Moore, and Mark Ingram will be lucky if he gains half the total yards he had against Philadelphia. 

            An argument could be made that because the Saints have the more experienced roster, played tougher teams, and didn’t have the week off, they may come out strong.  I believe that.  I doubt this game will play out in the same way as the one-sided affair five weeks ago, and the many irrational Seahawks fans who seem to think so are wrong.  I’m picking the Seahawks, but I feel like the homefield advantage is a 10-point swing.

            Prediction: Seattle 34, New Orleans 23

            Playoff Doppelganger: 2008 AFC Divisional Round, Pittsburgh 35, San Diego 24.  The Chargers were the sexy pick and the hot team from the Wild Card round, having beat the Colts in overtime – their fifth straight win.  And although San Diego came out strong, the Stealers monopolized on turnovers and used a strong running game to keep Philip Rivers off the field.  The Pittsburgh home crowd was energized, just like these Seattle fans will be.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (+ 7½)

            January 11, 8:15pm EST, CBS.

            A few thoughts about Indianapolis insane comeback last Saturday.  First of all, this was not another “Andy Reid game” where mismanagement fueled the epic collapse.  The only questionable decision by Reid came on the climatic non-conversion on 4^th-and-11 when he decided to call Kansas City’s final timeout immediately following the two minute warning.  But why not take a few extra moments to call up the play that will decide the rest of your season?  If Bowe makes that sideline catch inbounds, what is the purpose of having any more timeouts?

            Reid deserves to be commended for overcoming a remarkable slew of injuries and managing to put up 44 points with Knile Davis and Cyrus Gray as the Chiefs’ runningbacks.  But of course, Andrew Luck deserves the most praise.  The guy had three interceptions, no consistent running game, and only real downfield receiving threat.  As we’ve seen so many times in his early career, Luck is fearless, surprisingly agile, and capable of overcoming virtually any deficit (nine 4^th quarter comebacks in his first two years).  This guy is going to be on Verizon commercials before we know it.

            Now the real question: Does Luck have what it takes to carry over the second half magic of last Saturday’s came to a hostile outdoor environment in Foxboro?  For Patriot fans, there are some obvious similarities between this matchup and when the Denver Tebows came to New England two Januarys ago.  In that game, New England appeared to have the clear advantage on paper, but Tebow’s surreal 4^th quarter mojosecretly scared everyone (and this may be hard to believe, but there was once a time when the words “Tebow is scary” weren’t met with scornful laughter).  I mean, everyone thought: It makes perfect sense that in the Spygate/David Tyree/Bernard Pollard/4^th-and-2/Ras-I Dowling/Aaron Hernandez era that the Patriots would blow a game which would have been a no-brainer ten years ago. 

            Well, they didn’t blow that game (but that didn’t stop them from blowing the Super Bowl to this guy three weeks later).  And I don’t really think they’ll blow this game either, but that doesn’t stop every New England fan from thinking the same italicized thought above.  But hey, the 2013 Patriots look nothing like the 2011 Patriots; we’ve replaced Gronkowski and Hernandez with that fearsome running combo of Stevan “Fumble” Ridley and LeGarrette “Big Mac” Blount.  And instead of our pass defense being abysmal like it was back then, now our rush defense is abysmal (without Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, and the Pats’ third leading tackler Brandon Spikes).  And Andrew Luck isn’t anything like Tim Tebow; he is a really good passer and scrambler!

            The best case for the Patriots is that Tom Brady is coming off his greatest season of his career.  No, he probably won’t win the Super Bowl like he did in 2003 or 2004; no, he didn’t throw 50 touchdowns like he did in 2007; he didn’t throw 4 interceptions like he did in 2010.  He had his lowest completion percentage since 2003 and was sacked the most times since his first full season.  But he had more 4^th quarter comebacks (5) than any of his previous seasons, and had at least four “There’s no way the Pats win this game” games (vs. New Orleans, Miami, Denver and Cleveland).  And no, the 2013 Patriots didn’t go 16-0 like 2007; but it’s frightening to think how close they came to victories in each of those four losses (three ended on goal-line stands and one ended like this). 

            Another case for the Patriots is that Indianapolis can’t run the ball.  Another case for the Patriots is that the Colts’ D just gave up 44 points to a Jamal Charles-less Kansas City team (and any time your secondary relies on LaRon Landry and former Pats cast-off Darius Butler, it’s not exactly ideal).  Another case for the Patriots is that they scored 59 points on Andrew Luck the last time the Colts came to Foxboro.  Another case for the Patriots is that they are 4-0 in Saturday night Division round games in New England (each of those wins coming during Super Bowl seasons).

            Of course, everyone made similar arguments for the playoff games against the Giants, Ravens and Jets.  It can be argued each of those teams defeated previous Patriots squads which were, frankly, far more loaded with talent.  And it remains to be seen what the limit is for Andrew Luck’s tremendous potential.  But as nervous as this depleted New England team makes me, they’re gradually finding their identity, even if it involves LeGarrette Blount returning kicks (and even more improbably, finding success doing so).  They still somehow managed to score the third-most points in the league and helped give Boston sports fans one of the most thrilling, unforgettable falls of all time.  It doesn’t feel right that the journey ends here.

            Prediction: New England 24, Indianapolis 21

            Playoff doppelganger: 2003 AFC Divisional Round, New England 17, Tennessee 14. En route to their second Super Bowl championship, the Pats played the sneaky-good Titans in frigid conditions on a Saturday night in Foxboro.  The result was a taut, defensive game with little spectacle and a lot of bruising hits.  It was one of the all-time classic “The score is close, but the result is not in doubt” Patriots games from that era which they may have resurrected in 2013.

           

            San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (+3)

            January 12, 1:05pm EST, Fox.

            The 49ers are the trendy road pick this weekend, but personally, it is difficult for me to see why.  Carolina beat the 49ers in San Francisco back in November.  The Panthers haven’t lost at home since Week One, and have only lost once in their past 12 games.  Statistically, the two teams are remarkably similar: both had a top-five defense, both had bottom-three passing games, both lost to the Seahawks and Saints, both started 1-2, both have 6-5, 240 lb. QBs; and both won 12 games in the regular season. Shouldn’t this essentially be a pick-‘em, with the Panthers getting the slight nod because of the homefield advantage?

            But Vegas likes the 49ers for two (possibly three) main reasons: First, because San Francisco has more playoff experience, and second, that Jim Harbaugh is assumed to be a better coach than Ron Rivera.  In a strange way, this is similar to the 2011 NFC playoffs, when New Orleans (with more playoff experience and the “better coach”) marched into San Francisco as a 3½-point favorite.  The result was one of the greatest playoff games in NFL history, and proof that a bad betting line and negative public consensus can provide great motivation for home ‘dog to play tremendously as a result of feeling disrespected.

            I feel like this Panthers team is a candidate for that.  Frankly, they’ve been underdogs all season.  At the beginning of the year, Vegas listed the over/under win total for Carolina at seven games (Minnesota, St. Louis and Tampa Bay had higher win totals).  This was the make-or-break season for Ron Rivera and possibly Cam Newton.  They were underdogs at home against the Giants before they beat them 38-0.  Against all odds, they beat the 49ers and Patriots on back-to-back weeks.  No one thought they would overtake the Saints for the NFC South crown.  But they proved skeptics wrong.  And now, no one thinks they can win a home playoff game with Steve Smith and Jonathan Stewart returning from injuries.  I suspect they feel perfectly comfortable in the position they’re currently in.

            Let’s consider why they could beat the 49ers.  Yes, San Francisco won in frigid Green Bay weather against a rejuvenated Packers team, but Colin Kaepernick needed his legs on key third downs to beat the league’s 25^th-ranked defense.  His passing game was off; he completed just over 50 percent of his passes, and at times made some inexplicably poor throws (nearly getting picked off on the game’s penultimate drive).  Aldon Smith and Justin Smith assaulted Aaron Rodgers; but how will they fare against a quarterback with the lethal speed of Newton?  In the November 10^th game (a game which Aldon was limited), Newton was sacked three times, held to 50 percent passing, and gained only 15 yards rushing.  But on the flip side, Kaepernick was also held to 50 percent passing, gained 16 yards rushing, was sacked six times, and the 49ers were held to 151 total yards.

            I said earlier that Vegas likes the 49ers for two, possibly three reasons.  What is the third possible reason?  According to conventional logic, it is difficult to beat the same team multiple times in one season.  And since that November 10 game was without Michael Crabtree, Kendell Hunter, Vernon Davis (in the second half), and a limited Aldon Smith, it makes sense that the 49ers will be eager to avenge that loss.  But I like the Panthers for two main reasons in this game.  First, the Panthers and their fans are used to being underdogs at this point, and when you’re the underdog, you don’t have to worry about things like expectations, publicity or pressure (or at least, as much).  If you think back to the last two playoffs, which team has benefitted the most from going under the radar?  The 49ers.  Now that those roles are reversed, I expect to see a Panthers team that plays with more guts and comfort.

            The second reason is that Carolina will be the 49ers third straight playoff-caliber road opponent (after Arizona and Green Bay).  Teams like the 2011 Giants and 2012 Ravens will tell you that’s not a justifiable reason for losing in the playoffs.  The 49ers are not really like those teams though, relying much more on grind-it-out consistency than getting hot at the right time.  But the truth is, while this game is extremely tough to call, I think the Panthers are being undervalued, the 49ers overvalued, and the result is essentially a flip of the coin.  Something tells me that in this day and age, the pick is the home team no one believes in.

            Prediction: Carolina 24, San Francisco 22

           

            Playoff doppelganger: 2011 NFC Divisional Round, San Francisco 36, New Orleans 32.  For the reasons stated above.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9)

January 12, 4:40pm EST, CBS.

            The game of the weekend.  The two best quarterbacks and offenses, the two best storylines, and the winner should be the AFC favorite to reach the Super Bowl.

            There are many, many reasons to like the Chargers in this game – some obvious, some not so obvious.  Let’s start with the obvious ones: Exactly one month before this Sunday’s matchup, the Chargers marched into Denver and in front of a national TV audience, in a game with significance for both teams, they stomped all over the Broncos.  San Diego’s defense held the unstoppable Denver offense to four straight three-and-outs and 18 yards rushing, while the Chargers offense controlled the ball for 39 minutes and ran the ball 44 times.  And then Philip Rivers put on his rattlesnake boots.

            Now, let’s move to the slightly less obvious reasons to pick the Chargers.  Rivers is 6-2 in Denver and 5-4 all-time vs. Peyton Manning.  In the last seven weeks, the Chargers have beat Kansas City twice, and Denver and Cincinnati on the road.  They just beat a team by 17 points after that team had gone 8-0 at home.  Rivers completed 69 percent of his passes on the season, and since Melvin Ingram has returned from his knee injury, the defense has been outstanding.  Of the Broncos’ three sub-30 point performances this season, two came against the Chargers.

            Finally, let’s look at the least obvious reason of all.  According to the USAToday, since 2009, the last four teams to face the Philadelphia Eagles in their home opener have won the Super Bowl.  Guess which team traveled to Lincoln Financial Field Week 2?  If you guessed this guy, you would be correct.

            In addition, we know that the Broncos offense was record-setting, but let’s look at the troubled recent history of high-scoring offenses when they reach the playoffs:

TEAM	RECORD	OFFENSIVE RANK (Points Scored)	POSTSEASON
2012 Broncos	13-3	2	L Division Round
2012 Patriots	12-4	1	L Conference Championship
2011 Packers	15-1	1	L Division Round
2011 Saints	13-3	2	L Division Round
2010 Patriots	14-2	1	L Division Round
2009 Saints	13-3	1	W Super Bowl
2007 Patriots	16-0	1	L Super Bowl
2007 Cowboys	13-3	2	L Division Round
2006 Chargers	14-2	1	L Division Round
2005 Colts	13-3	2	L Division Round
2004 Colts	12-4	1	L Division Round
2003 Chiefs	13-3	1	L Division Round

            (Note: It’s funny how the 2009 Saints mess this graphic up, just like they did when I was looking at the Seahawks game earlier in the column).

So that’s it.  All the reasons to pick San Diego in the upset over the overrated Broncos this year.  It’s clear.  Offensive juggernauts don’t win in the postseason, and Peyton Manning has has eight “one-and-done” playoff appearances.  It’s the Chargers.  Right?

A good case for the Broncos is that in the December 12 game, Wes Welker was out with a concussion.  He will be back this week.  Another good sign for Denver is that the Broncos were 7-0 in games without Von Miller.  And although he will miss the remainder of the playoffs, his presence or absence did not dramatically alter how the Broncos’ defense played, statistically speaking. 

But the best case for the Broncos is this: Like the Panthers, no one really believes in them (although they still are somehow a 9-point favorite – ridiculous).  Strange to think – a team with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, with a record-setting offense, and that pretty much indisputably was the best team of the 2013 regular season, now is a team everyone seems to seriously doubt.  The past playoff woes of Manning and good offenses in general may be good long-term indicators, but you’re really saying that can’t win a single game in the playoffs?  For two straight seasons?  After playing in the AFC’s toughest division and beating the Chargers in San Diego when Wes Welker was healthy?

I think Manning is sick of the criticism he is receiving.  Do you realize he hasn’t won a playoff game since he beat the Jets in the 2009 AFC Championship game?  It’s a little similar to that crazy stat about Tom Brady going from January 2008 to January 2012 without a single playoff win.  You can only hold down a talent like that for so long; you’re asking us to believe that Peyton Manning will really go five years without a playoff victory?  And it’s not just Manning either.  This is the best offense in football and no other team was even close (Example: The Broncos scored 76 touchdowns, and the second-place Bengals scored 54).  If Demaryius Thomas had a bad game, then Eric Decker, Welker or Julius Thomas stepped up; if Knowshon Moreno looked sluggish, then Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman picked up the pace.  And yes, the defense gave up nearly 400 points, but technically, they allowed only three opponents to score 28+ points.  This for a team which offensively scored 28+ points in all but three games.

This game will be a classic.  The winner has an excellent shot of making it to Super Bowl 48.  The Chargers are incredibly hot, but another first-round playoff exit for Peyton Manning just seems too crazy to be believed.   Every instinct in my brain tells me to pick the 9-point road underdog that the public loves.  That’s why I’m picking . . .

Prediction: Denver 34, San Diego 31

           

            Playoff doppelganger: 2009 NFC Championship Game, New Orleans 31, Minnesota 28 (OT).  Two classic quarterbacks, one classic game with a lot of turnovers and a now-immortal radio call.  Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers have had more tragic moments than Julianne Moore onscreen. It feels weird that one of them has to advance to the next round. 

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Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions: Wild Card Round

           It’s playoff time!  Or as it’s known in my house, divorce month.  Before we delve into my picks for the Wild Card Weekend, let’s be entirely indulgent and review my best and worst preseason predictions based on the season preview article I wrote in September:

                                                                     

3^rd best prediction: “Josh Gordon will lead the AFC North in receiving yards.” This would have been my best prediction had I had enough balls to predict he would lead the entire league in receiving yards.  But this is a fairly impressive prediction since (A) two other AFC North receivers (Antonio Brown and AJ Green) finished in the NFL’s top five receiving yards, (B) he missed the first four games of the season, and (C) he plays for the Cleveland Freaking Browns.  As a proud owner of Gordon in three fantasy leagues this season, I'm satisfied.

2^nd best prediction: “No Colt will have more rushing yards than Arian Foster or Ben Tate.” Tate finished with 771 yards and Foster finished with 542.  The Colts’ leading rusher, Donald Brown, finished with 537.  Want another amazing statistic?  Houston and Indianapolis finished with the exact same total rushing yardage, 1743 (Indy had 409 rush attempts, Houston 414).  Additionally, both teams’ leading rusher per carry was their quarterback (Andrew Luck and Case Keenum).  One team finished 11-5 and AFC South champions, the other finished 2-14.  As David St. Hubbins once said, “It’s such a fine line between stupid and clever.”

Best prediction: “The Eagles will finish 10-6 and win the NFC East.” This prediction was about 50 percent unbridled Chip Kelly enthusiasm, and 50 percent “every other team in the NFC East sucks.” Admittedly, it was 0 percent “Nick Foles is going to throw 27 TDs and 2 Ints, including a seven-touchdown game.”  However, I did predict Philadelphia would go 5-0 in December (they finished 4-1) and that the Redskins would finish at the bottom of the division.  Quiet NFC East subplot: Do you realize that no NFC East team has finished with 11 or more wins since 2009?  Second quiet NFC East subplot: The last quarterback to win consecutive NFC East division titles was Donovan McNabb (Hint: This may have influenced my Philadelphia pick this weekend).

3^rd worst prediction: “The Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans will win their divisions.” I was definitely not alone in these predictions, and therefore I’m not too embarrassed by them.  Atlanta had never had a losing season under Mike Smith, and the Texans appeared to boast the AFC’s most balanced offense.  And admittedly, in 2013 they both went 5-16 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  But they also won a combined 19 games fewer than in 2012, and were generally atrocious all season.  They also stunk up a combined eight nationally televised prime time games, while the 12-4 Panthers and 10-6 Cardinals got a total of four. 

2^nd worst prediction: “Joe Flacco will have a better year statistically than 2012.” His 2012 numbers (when he became simply “Joe”): 10 wins, 3817 yards, 22 TDs, 10 interceptions, a Super Bowl championship.  His 2013 numbers (when he regressed to “Flacco”): 8 wins, 3912 yards, 19 TDs, 22 interceptions, zero playoff appearances, one $120.6 million contract extension.  Yikes.

Worst prediction: “Michael Vick will start all 16 games for the Eagles.” My best and worst predictions involved the same team – appropriately, it was for the same erratic team that gave up 48 points to Matt Cassel and Matt Asiata and then beat the Bears by 43 in a span of seven days.  I must have been in an altered state when writing this sentence, or simply looking for something provocative and completely untenable to proclaim a la Skip Bayless. 

            Now that I’ve earned your adamant trust with my incredible abilities to accurately predict the outcome of the NFL season, let us proceed to break down this weekend’s playoff games.

            Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

            Saturday, January 4, 4:35pm EST, NBC.

            It’s always nice when we have precedent to base these games on: Two weeks ago, Indianapolis marched into Kansas City having gone two months without a single impressive win to speak of.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs had averaged 42 points in its past four games.  The result was one-sided: The Colts stomped the Chiefs 23-7 at Arrowhead Stadium.

            Now that the venue has shifted to Indianapolis, why should we believe the results will be any different?  Kansas City beat one playoff team all season (the Michael Vick-led Eagles in Week 3) and went 0-5 against playoff teams from the AFC.  The Chiefs haven’t won a playoff game in twenty years, and almost no one on Kansas City has any real playoff experience to speak of with the exception of Alex Smith’s two January games in 2011.  And then there is Andy Reid, who hasn’t made it to the divisional round of the playoffs since 2008.  Yes, they were a top-six team offensively and defensively and had an AFC-best +18 turnover ratio; but they were also outgained by nearly 500 yards over the course of the season, and had a -3 turnover ratio two weeks ago in Indianapolis.

            Perhaps the Chiefs’ best hope is in the Colts’ unpredictability.  Indianapolis beat San Francisco, Seattle and Denver . . . but lost to St. Louis at home by 30 (they also lost to Arizona by 29, but that loss doesn’t look quite as bad in retrospect).  They held five opponents to 10 points or fewer, but also had three opponents score 38 or higher.  Another sign of hope for Kansas City is Indianapolis’ futility at running the ball.  Trent Richardson is still averaging under 3 yards per carry, and Donald Brown, while more effective, doesn’t have a game with 14+ carries.  The Chiefs are 6-0 in games where they hold opponents to under 100 yards rushing; the Colts are 2-4 in such games. 

            But really, those kind of stats are relatively insignificant in the playoffs because it is quarterbacks that take over.  Remember when the 2011 Giants entered the playoffs with the league’s worst rushing attack?  Remember when the 2010 Packers ran the ball in the postseason with an unknown rookie named James Starks?  If Indianapolis is going to win, it will be with Andrew Luck’s arm.  He doesn’t have seven game-winning drives like he did in 2012, but his completion percentage is higher, interceptions is lower, and the Colts went from 27 turnovers last season to a league-low 14 this year.  They have the best pass rusher in the NFL (Robert Mathis) who will wreak havoc against a QB sacked 39 times in 2013.  And you don’t think those mild-mannered Indianapolis fans will be pumped up for Andrew Luck’s first home playoff game?  The Chiefs have been a good story all season, but I would be surprised to see them make it to the divisional round.

            Prediction: Indianapolis 31, Kansas City 13

            Playoff Doppelganger: 2007 AFC Wild Card, San Diego 17, Tennessee 6. Do you remember this game?  Exactly, me neither.  Actually, I remember that during that Wild Card weekend, I had to drive from Eugene to Portland, meaning I would miss at least one playoff game. This was the game I chose, meaning I instead got to see this.  Good choice.  Anyway, this was Phillip Rivers’ first home playoff win against a reinvigorated defensive team that could not play from behind.  Bleh.  This wild card weekend, get your chores done Saturday afternoon before claiming the TV set for . . .

            New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

            Saturday, January 4, 8:10 EST, NBC.

            One of two games this weekend where the more experienced quarterback is a road underdog – not a common occurrence in the NFL playoffs.

            The Saints remind me of the mid-to-late-90s Miami Dolphins.  They have a quarterback who seems to break a new passing record every week, but are unexceptional at running the ball, have a mediocre defense, and can’t win on the road.  The odds of the Saints winning four straight road games, including games in rainy Seattle and blizzard conditions in the Meadowlands . . . well let’s just say they should continue to be thankful for their Super Bowl title (something Dan Marino could never say).  But we’re not talking about a Super Bowl run – all we’re trying to predict is if this team can beat a rookie coach, his second-year quarterback, and a defense that gave up the third-most yards in the league.

            The question here really is whether statistics and conventional wisdom matter.  If they do, then the Saints should win this game.  They are the better team in virtually every significant category (with the exception of two, which I’ll get to in a second).  They played in the better division, they have more experience, and they have the better defense statistically (somehow, they’ve given up the second-fewest passing yards in the league; one year ago, they finished as the league’s second-worst).  As good as Foles’ numbers have been (27 TDs vs. 2 interceptions), Brees’ passing numbers are prolific, and when healthy, Jimmy Graham was virtually unstoppable. 

            Now let’s get to those problematic areas for the Saints.  The first one is extremely well-documented: Their road woes.  They were 3-5 away from the Superdome this year, and have not won an away playoff game under the Sean Peyton-Drew Brees regime.  This season, they were competitive in three of those road losses (the Panthers and Patriots games were lost in the final seconds), and it could be argued that all of those road losses came against quality defenses (their other two losses were against Seattle, St. Louis, and the New York Jets).  Fortunately for New Orleans, Philadelphia was only 4-4 at home, and judging by their inability to shut down the likes of Kyle Orton last week (along with the 4907 passing yards they gave up in 2013), their secondary cannot exactly be called elite.

            The second problematic area for the Saints is a little more telling: They can’t run the ball consistently.  In three of its losses, New Orleans ran for fewer than 61 yards.  In fact, throw out the Dallas game (when Mark Ingram inexplicably ran all over the porous Cowboys’ D) and the Saints didn’t have a game where they rushed for over 131 yards.  Philadelphia had nine such games in 2013, and seven of the Saints rush defense’s nine worst games in 2013 came on the road.  Conventional wisdom says that the best way to shut down a prolific passing offense is by controlling the clock, and should LeSean McCoy run wild, it could be a long day for the Saints (God I hate writing sentences like that – I feel like Talking Head Guy).

            Philadelphia is on a remarkable eight-game streak.  In going 7-1, they’ve resurrected a season which seemed doomed by a catastrophic mix of Michael Vick’s injury and Chip Kelly’s inexperience.  They’ve scored 266 points and committed five turnovers during that span.  But their defense isn’t great, and I choose to believe that when the Saints lose on the road, it is more often than not because of the good defenses they face.  This is the toughest game of the weekend to predict, but when it comes to this many unpredictable factors, you have to take experience over inexperience. 

            Prediction: New Orleans 28, Philadelphia 24

            Playoff doppelganger: 1999 AFC Wild Card, Miami 20, Seattle 17.  Gotta go back to the archives for this one, but I remember this game well.  The Dolphins, like the Saints, were lousy on the road and fairly one-dimensional, and were thought to be underdogs against an up-and-coming AFC team at home with a new coach/QB combination.   Well surprise surprise, Marino in his last season came through with one more impressive playoff win before getting demolished by 55 points on the road the following week.  Hmm.

            San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

            Sunday, January 5, 1:05pm EST, CBS.

            As a Patriots fan, this game scares me.  Either we’ll get Cincinnati in round two – a tough, physical team with a dynamic offense that already beat us earlier this season – or potentially San Diego in the AFC Championship – by that point, a surefire “team of destiny” candidate after wins over the Chiefs, Bengals and Broncos (twice). 

            I guess the underlying message of that is: both teams have talent and the potential to go deep into the postseason.  In an AFC dominated by serious questions about whether the Broncos and Patriots can overcome major injuries on both sides of the ball, Cincinnati and San Diego both boast excellent offenses with powerful running games.  And while the Bengals may have the best defense in the AFC, the Chargers are certainly the hottest team heading into the playoffs, having won four straight with major wins over Kansas City and Denver (both on the road).

            Like Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers is the second veteran QB this weekend to be an underdog on the road.  And like Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton is making his home playoff debut, still searching for his first postseason victory.  The Bengals have been spectacular at home, averaging 41.6 points in their last five home games.  They haven’t lost at home all season, and handled the likes of New England, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Baltimore.  And although they were mediocre on the road, going 4-4, one of those wins was crucially against San Diego, giving the Chargers their lone December loss.  Dalton threw for more touchdowns than Rivers, Tony Romo, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford.  In making their offense more vertical, Cincinnati has tried to emulate the crucial explosiveness Baltimore had in their Super Bowl run last year.  And it’s not like BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard are exactly bad running options.

            It’s tempting to believe that the Chargers have more playoff experience than the Bengals, but actually, this is their first trip to the playoffs since 2009.  And with the exceptions of Rivers, Antonio Gates, and Eric Weddle, this team doesn’t really resemble the squad that lost at home to the Jets and the Sanchize four years ago. What does make this San Diego team feel familiar is their typically erratic pre-December play; while they beat Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis and Philadelphia, they also lost to Houston, Oakland and Washington.  But we all know that Philip Rivers is a quarterback who relies on emotion for motivation – this is dangerous.  It boils down to whether you can stand behind a guy who acts like this.

            Thus, in Rivers’ four playoff appearances, the Chargers have been favorites twice (2006 and 2009) and underdogs twice (2007 and 2008).  They blew the games in which they were favorites, and advanced when no one believed in them – just as no one believed they could go into Denver Week 15 and beat Peyton Manning.  On the flip side, no one has ever really believed in Cincinnati, a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game since 1991, and is 0-4 in the postseason under Marvin Lewis.

            This game would perhaps make a lot more sense if the events of Week 17 had not been so quirky: While both teams won pivotal home games, Dalton threw four interceptions and had a QB rating of 62.2, while the Chargers needed a miraculous field goal miss to beat the Chiefs’ second-stringers.  Thus, while both teams have obvious talent, they can also look acutely mortal.  But I lean toward San Diego for a few reasons: (A) I’d take Philip Rivers as an underdog over Andy Dalton as a favorite, (B) San Diego’s road wins have been more impressive than Cincinnati’s home wins, and (C) San Diego hasn’t played a lousy game since October 6, when they lost to Oakland.  They may have lost more games during that time, but unlike Cincinnati, they haven’t laid any stink bombs like this. 

The best case for Cincinnati is their 8-0 record at home.  As a Patriots fan who saw home playoff losses in three of the past four years, I can say 8-0 in the regular season doesn’t mean crap.  Since 2005, the recipe for winning in the playoffs has been based around momentum, emotion, the ability to win on the road, and experienced, fearless quarterback play.  Those qualities are manifested in this unlikely Chargers team – a team that should put the rest of the league on notice.

           

            Prediction: San Diego 28, Cincinnati 19

            Playoff doppelganger: 2008 AFC Wild Card Round, San Diego 23, Indianapolis 17 (OT). This year’s Chargers were 5-7 heading into December, which isn’t quite as bad as the 2008 team, which was 4-8 and four games behind division leader Denver.  After the Chargers played a spectacular December, they hosted a red-hot Colts team that hadn’t lost in two months.  The result?  Emotion over logic.

            San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers  (+3)

            January 5, 4:40pm EST, FOX.

           

            San Francisco is a highly questionable callaway from having clinched the NFC’s 1 seed.  Green Bay is an epic Cowboys collapse away from being out of the playoffs entirely.  The last time a 12-win wild card team (and defending Super Bowl loser) went on the road to play an 8-win division champion, this happened.  The last time these two teams met in the playoffs, this happened.

            It could be argued that no team is playing better football than the 49ers right now.  The defense is the healthiest it has been all season, while Michael Crabtree’s return has lit a spark for the passing game.  Not that San Francisco has needed to rely on Colin Kaepernick’s arm much lately; when Kap threw for 310 yards in last week’s win in Arizona, it was his first time eclipsing 300 yards in the air since Week 1 against (you guessed it) the Packers.  Like Cam Newton, Kaepernick has been proven most effective when sitting in the pocket, but can still be lethal with the option.  In his last three road games, Kaepernick has 7 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a QB rating of 117.4

            The Packers defied all odds by surviving an 0-4-1 stretch, and rallying behind Matt Flynn to beat the Falcons and Cowboys.  After benefitting from a pathetic NFC North, Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb returned Week 17 an upset the Bears at Soldier Field.  Rodgers wasn’t his normal self, but still threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns.  Now he’ll have to face a defense which played the pass exceptionally all year, and has stifled Rodgers in their last three meetings. 

            If you want to come up with reasons to pick Green Bay, you can look at the emotion of Rodgers’ return, the atmosphere of Lambeau Field, and the fact that the Packers have scored 31+ points in each of its last three games.  It’s hard to beat a team four times in a row, and Eddie Lacy wasn’t really a factor in any of the past few meetings.  Kaepernick can look vulnerable on the road (ask Seattle fans), and San Francisco doesn’t have the vertical passing game to overcome large early deficits (unless the lights go out). 

            Otherwise, the 49ers are the clear pick.  As long as they don’t have to travel to Seattle, they can beat any team in the NFL.  When San Francisco scores 23 points or higher, they are 11-0.  Green Bay allowed 11 opponents to score over 23 points, and was 3-7-1 in those games.  If anything, the tundra conditions are more conducive to the 49ers grind-it-out style, and Rodgers is not at 100 percent health.  I would be a hypocrite to pick San Diego on emotion alone and completely ignore the amazing events that have transpired for the Packers, but the 49ers are a better team than the Bengals, and Green Bay’s defense can’t stop anyone.  Plus, don’t we need at least one Colin Kaepernick-Russell Wilson playoff game?

            Prediction: San Francisco 34, Green Bay 21

            Playoff doppelganger: 2005 NFC Divisional Round, Carolina 29, Chicago 21.  Rex Grossman’s return from a season-crippling ankle injury was thwarted by Carolina’s balanced attack and Steve Smith’s spectacular receiving day.  A mismatch.

            An interesting side note: In each of the past three seasons, the Super Bowl champion has played Wild Card weekend.  And in each of the past three seasons, I stupidly picked against that team in the Wild Card round.  So a preemptive congratulations to either the Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals or Packers on their Super Bowl 48 championship!

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