Terry's Top Ten Films of 2012

It always takes me a little longer to get my top 10 list of the year out than my two companions.  This is mainly because I have more trouble finding time to view the top films of the year before the come out on DVD.  Eventually I see them all and am able to put out a strong top films of the year.  This last year was one of those years where I think the Academy got it pretty right with who they honored at the Oscars.  This not only makes for a much more enjoyable Oscars ceremony, but also gives me increased faith in the awards systems.  Eight of the Best Picture nominees can be found in my top ten.  The one that is not I have yet to view (Beasts of the Southern Wild) but I feel confident enough in the ten that I have to go with it without viewing this one yet (Update: I saw Beasts and it did not crack the list).  So far, I have given out nine 4 star ratings for 2012 which is my lowest total since 2009 when there were eight 4 stars.  However, with that said, I believe this was a good year for movies because of the quality of the these ten movies at the top.  With all that said, here is the list.

Honorable Mention

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Haywire

Skyfall

This Is 40

10.  Amour (Dir. by Michael Haneke)

Let me start by saying this type of film is not my cup of tea.  I am usually not a fan of quiet subtle character studies.  I usually differ to Todd or Zach to discuss the greatness of this genre.  However, Haneke's latest achievement about an elderly couple dealing with the trials and struggles of the twilight years impressed me so much I had to put it on my list.  I still didn't necessarily "like" this movie in the traditional sense of the word, but I was fascinated by it and by the beauty of its subtlety.  The screenplay is brilliant because of everything it doesn't say.  There isn't much plot in the story, but most of the events that advance the plot are not seen or heard.  The film is not about what is happening, but about how people react to and cope with those events.  The beauty is in the non-verbals which led to two amazing performances from the Oscar-nominated Emmanuelle Riva and Jean-Louis Trintignant.  If nothing else, this film shows the incredible artistry of a unique filmmaker.

9.  The Avengers (Dir. by Joss Whedon)

This is probably the closest thing to a polar opposite that you could find to the last film on the list.  However, I would be lying if I didn't say the superhero mega-movie event wasn't one of the most enjoyable movie-going experiences of the year.  Individually, some characters made decent films (Iron Man, Captain America: The First Avenger) and some didn't (Thor) but together they made an explosive team that saved the world.  I could watch this movie over and over and over again.

8.  Lincoln (Dir. by Steven Spielberg)

I love a good historical drama.  When you add to that one of the better directors of the last 30 years, one of the best actors of the last 25 years, and one of the most beloved characters in American history, you are bound to have a masterpiece.  That is exactly what this combination brought.  Daniel Day-Lewis once again gave a career-defining performance (I believe this makes 5 career-defining performances for him) as he became the embodiment of the character instead of simply playing him.  Add to that some of the best supporting performances of the year from one of the most impressive casts of the year, and you really can't find anything to complain about.

7.  Les Miserables (Dir. by Tom Hooper)

When I heard they were making a movie version of my favorite musical of all time, my only reaction was, "Don't screw it up."  What I realized after watching the film was you really can't screw it up.  It was not a perfect movie.  I had some issues with some of the casting decisions and some of the performances, however when it came down to it the story is so good and the music tells the story so well that less than perfect still produced a masterpiece.  I give Tom Hooper a lot of credit for this because he realized the best way to bring this musical to the screen is to not mess with what made it a great musical, and that is the music.  By keeping the singing throughout and allowing the actors bring their characters to life through song, it gave the film the emotion and epic scale that makes the musical so beloved.

6.  Looper (Dir. by Rian Johnson)

This was one of the best kept secrets of last year.  However, by the time saw this movie, I had heard from everyone that had seen it that it was the most underrated film of the year.  So the hype had definitely built up.  With that said, it lived up to all the hype.  What a unique and original movie!  As all great sci-fi films do, it establishes its reality quite well, but what makes this one stand out is the reality we are forced to live in for two hours.  The unique and fascinating premise is so thought-provoking in itself that when the plot starts taking its twists and turns, you are hooked and on the edge of your seat for the duration.  Looper redefined time travel movies in a way District 9 a few years ago redefined alien movies.

5.  Django Unchained (Dir. by Quentin Tarantino)

It seems that no matter when Tarantino makes a film, it ends up on my top films of the year no matter how ridiculous the film is.  Django is a perfect example.  If you were to hear about a film with this premise, you would think it was a joke.  A slave right before the Civil War is freed to work with a bounty hunter to hunt down and kill slave owners.  What a terrible sounding, offensive movie!  This film should never be made!  Then you're told that Quentin Tarantino is making it.  All of a sudden it becomes one of the movie events of the year and a soon-to-be masterpiece.  It almost seems like Tarantino wants to see how far he can push it before he gets run out of Hollywood.  This will never happen though.  First, Tarantino would run away from Hollywood before he would be considered a part of it.  Second, he makes films in a way no one else does.  His screenplays and dialogue are so unique and his plot lines are so original, he has practically created a genre of his own.  Because of that, every time we see Tarantino work we see something we have never seen before.  This is what makes films like Django so great.  I'm sure if we saw films like these everyday then Tarantino wouldn't wow us so much.  But we don't, so they do.

4.  Zero Dark Thirty (Dir. by Kathryn Bigelow)

It is rare that such a moment of recent history is brought to the screen so quickly and so effectively.  Kathryn Bigelow has built a reputation for herself that I don't think anyone else should ever make a film about the Middle East besides her.  I really don't like a lot of the movies that are coming out about the wars in the Middle East, but Bigelow has now succeeded in making two masterpieces on the subject.  This film about the hunt for Osama Bin Laden is so honest and suspenseful that it draws you in from the very first scene.  The last half hour of the movie is one of the greatest war sequences I have ever seen.  It is definitely a film that takes you for a ride.

3.  Life of Pi (Dir. by Ang Lee)

This film surprised me more than any other this year.  I knew nothing about it going in except there was a boy, a boat, and a tiger.  I also knew that it was getting more recognition than I looked like it should by the awards season.  I couldn't have been more wrong.  Yes, it is a story about a boy, a boat, and a tiger, but it is so much more than that.  It is a story about faith, survival, and imagination.  And when you put an imaginative story like this into the creative hands of Ang Lee, you are bound to have one of the greatest movie experiences you can find.  I loved everything about this movie.  The story is incredible, which you almost forget about because the film is so beautiful to watch which is a given when Ang Lee is at the helm.  On top of all this, the film ends in a way that keeps you thinking for days.  It is one of those films where you need to have a discussion with someone to debrief after you are done watching it.  This is a film I will never get tired of talking about.

2.  Silver Linings Playbook (Dir. by David O. Russell)

Out of all the films on this list, this is the most human story with the characters you relate to the most with the best overall acting job of the year.  This film about a bipolar finding his way to be normal in the world is quirky, heartbreaking, funny, serious.  In short, it is life.  Few films capture life in all its dynamics like this does.  In a lot of ways (and my counterparts will hate me for this), it is a lot like Sideways in this way.  There is a real life story told with flawed, complete characters in a way real life actually is.  However, Silver Linings would have been nothing if not for its stellar cast.  Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence show they can do a lot more than what the general public recognize them for, and when you can round out your cast with a living legend you have a perfect cast.  I know some of you were thinking the living legend was Chris Tucker, but it's not.  It was Robert De Niro.

1.  Argo (Dir. by Ben Affleck)

If any of you have read any of my other posts or know what my favorite movies are, you will know that my all-time favorite type of movie is a 20th Century American History film.  Whether it's Apollo 13, A Beautiful Mind, or Frost/Nixon, there is something about this time period that appeals to me.  Argo is the latest film I can add to this list.  Ben Affleck is quickly becoming one of the best directors we have with this film being his masterpiece about the rescue mission of the Americans who escaped before the hostages were taken in Iran.  This movie feels like an instant classic, and instantly became one of my favorite movies of the last number of years.  I really don't know how to describe it other than: awesome.

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Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Best Director

Aside from Supporting Actor, this is the one category that is impossible to get a read on. It is simply unprecedented what this category has gone through with the obvious favorite Ben Affleck getting one of the most egregious snubs in Academy history. Affleck has been cleaning up every precursor that means anything. We have two former winners in this category, a past nominee, a first time director, and a foreign director finally breaking through to the mainstream. This is the category to watch.

5. Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: Spirit Awards

Case for the Oscar: This is one of the stranger nominees in recent memory. The movie was a modest indie hit at best, but it was a very popular critic movie. Its buzz was very quiet until it somehow jumped into all of the important categories at the Oscars. Zeitlin is a newcomer, and while his direction and film are commendable, he has a very slim chance at making a run at the award. Not enough people saw the film during its June release.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2000 Best Director: Stephen Daldry. He had an astonishing directorial debut that really captured an audience and rode it popularity all the way to the ceremony. Being up against all major directors made it a foregone conclusion that he was not going to take home the Oscar, but his nomination was an expression of the love that the members had for his directing efforts, which put him on the fast track toward a potentially big career.

Odds of winning: 100/1

4. Michael Haneke – Amour

Notable awards: National Society of Film Critics

Notable nominations: BAFTA

Case for the Oscar: He certainly has an uphill battle to winning the Oscar, but the massive love for his film has put him right in contention. With the Best Picture favorite not nominated in this category, this could be the spot that the Academy may want to honor this tremendously popular film. He also has his screenplay in contention, which would be a lesser award to give him, but Haneke is certainly going to shake some things up. His chances are as good as any, and honestly, his direction might be the best of the nominated films. Without having to give a predetermined award to Ben Affleck (which would have been deserved), this may finally be the year that we can see a real directorial achievement take the award, not just the most popular film’s director.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2002 Best Director: Pedro Almodovar. The directing category was a very wide open race going in, yet everyone underestimated the popularity of the foreign film and director that broke through into the major categories. The Academy had their choice of acknowledging his achievement here or in the screenplay category. Since the directing lineup was much more star-studded, he just missed out on winning, but certainly had a terrific chance at it going in.

Odds of winning: 6/1

3. Ang Lee – Life of Pi

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, DGA, Golden Globes

Case for the Oscar: His direction is huge. It is like the Avatar of this year, a direction that under the hands of a less creative director would have tanked. He brought together all of the amazing visuals, photography, and sound to create a beautiful experience. His film is a total Oscar movie, and this is the only real chance that the Academy will get to recognize it in a major category. While the film somewhat underwhelmed at the box office despite its incredible ambition, his direction is a marvel. He is certainly not the favorite, but he is just looming in the weeds, waiting to win his second Oscar.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1956 Best Director: George Stevens. His film was warmly received by many critics and awards circuits, but it was never the frontrunner. While the other films were equally Oscar friendly, his film was just so large in scope and beauty that it was hard to not recognize his achievement in this category. He had won in this category less than a decade before, and there was probably still some leftover love from his previous venture and frustration over it not winning Best Picture.

Odds of winning: 3/1

2. David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Notable awards: Satellite

Notable nominations: BFCA, Spirit Awards

Case for the Oscar: His film has the Weinstein backing, and he is becoming one of the more well-liked people in the industry. The Fighter had a ton of fans, so this could be a delayed award to throw his way. His film is still ripping up the box office, and while it is not the most complex direction, he is the helmer of the crowd-pleaser of the year. He has the sob story about how the movie being about his son, so he will certainly be a sentimental favorite at the ceremony. If he wins this, then his film could challenge Argofor Best Picture. If he doesn’t win for his screenplay, this could be the spot to give him his first Oscar.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2009 Best Director: Jason Reitman: At one point, he was clearly the frontrunner in multiple categories. He wound up getting stuck behind a somewhat confusingly popular awards film that didn’t exactly tear up the box office. His film captured a wide audience, and he rode the sweet comedy-drama all the way to a nomination, his second in 3 years. He had an outside shot at taking home the prize, but there were a couple huge favorites that prevented him from winning it for a film that wasn’t exactly a directing showcase. His real chance was in the screenplay category.

Odds of winning: 3/2

1. Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, DGA, Golden Globes

Case for the Oscar: He is still one of the most popular directors in the world. Every movie he makes is an event, and to turn that talky script into the engrossing drama that he did is absolutely one of the finer efforts of the year. His film is not going to take Best Picture, so like in 1998, they may want to throw Spielberg another bone. The problem he faces is that he is nowhere near as much of a shoo-in as he used to be. Like Clint Eastwood, the Academy may be getting somewhat tired of him. He was not nominated for War Horse, and Lincolnis Oscar gold on paper, but his film is getting taken to the woodshed by Argo. His chances to win this Oscar are still overwhelmingly good because he is Spielberg, but there are 3 other major contenders who could take it, just because we don’t know how they are going to handle the category without Affleck.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1989 Best Director: Oliver Stone. He was a previous winner, and while his film was never really a serious Best Picture threat, his direction was superb. The inevitable Best Picture winner received a rare snub in this category, so it was somewhat wide open going in. Up against some serious talent, the biggest name ended up winning out.

Odds of winning: 1/2

Past articles:

Best Actor

Best Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Original and Adapted Screenplays

Comments? Thoughts on this crazy Best Director race? Coming up tomorrow: Best Picture!

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Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Best Actor

With the exception of last year and (sort of) 2008, when we at least had a two horse race for the award, this category has been uncompetitive since 2003. This year is no different. Check out the contenders’ cases for winning and their overall odds below…

5. Denzel Washington – Flight

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG

Case for the Oscar: This was an obvious nominee, but there is just no chance that he is winning this. His role called for a much different side of Washington than we are used to seeing, but the movie was a bit ridiculous and went too light when it could have really dug into the character study elements that would have left Washington with no choice but to bring it. It is a fine performance, but the other contenders have much stronger cases. Even though he is one of the most popular actors in the world, I cannot see him getting a third before Day-Lewis gets his third.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1991 Best Actor: Robert De Niro. This was a commercially popular film that got solid reviews, yet there was a portion of audiences that hated it. The nomination here was an easy choice, but going up against a juggernaut and having no real signature wins throughout awards season caused the universally popular two-time winner to have no real chance going into the ceremony. His nomination was his reward.

Odds of winning: 150/1

4. Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

Notable awards: Los Angeles Critics

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes

Case for the Oscar: He gave the best performance of the year. His role is filled with Oscar scenes. He pushed himself further in this role than anyone did in 2012. However, his movie did was not a hit with the Academy. He expressed his hatred for the entire awards process. He gave a 2 hour middle finger to Hollywood with I’m Still Here. If the Academy is being honest, then Phoenix will win. They won’t, so he won’t.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2011 Best Actress: Rooney Mara. The movie was well-received from critics and from a portion of audiences. She missed out on the SAG nomination, causing many people to doubt her chances at the Oscar nom. The Academy wound up having enough people who are still trying to awarding the best achievements in film, so the nomination came. Going up against a legend and a couple more performances in much more popular films restricted her from taking home her Oscar.

Odds of winning: 75/1

3. Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables

Notable awards: Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical)

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, SAG

Case for the Oscar: He is a very popular guy. He has even hosted the show, which was fairly well-received. That one moron lady one the Oscar nominations telecast called it “probably the most mind-blowing performance I have ever seen”. So, even though his singing is really awkward, he clearly captured a wide audience. Missing out on the Directing and Screenplay categories shows that the film is not as popular as it should have been on paper, but his performance has been singled out as being one of the year’s best. It is hard to imagine him winning an Oscar, considering he has never really been in a good movie outside of the first two X-Men flicks, but role is just so much Oscar bait that if they are not going to give DDL his third, then this has about as good of a chance as anyone.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1966 Best Actor: Steve McQueen. A bit of a strange comparison, I know. He was one of the more popular actors around. He had several better roles, but this effortless role in an Oscar movie is the one that broke him through to get his only nomination. He probably got a fair amount of votes, but the winner was obvious and predetermined.

Odds of winning: 50/1

2. Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook

Notable awards: National Board of Review

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical), Spirit Awards, SAG

Case for the Oscar: He is a rising star, and this role proved to all of the skeptics that he actually can act. He is in the favorite of the acting branch of the Academy, which is the largest portion of the population. The movie could be a surprise winner for the major awards, which just might be enough to sweep in its star to officially start the career of a future megastar and leading man in Hollywood for the next several decades.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1989 Best Actor: Tom Cruise. He had already won over audiences with his box office hits, but playing against type for one of the more respected directors of his time brought him his first, well-deserved Oscar nom. His film was one of the favorites for the top prizes, and despite the presence of the obvious favorite Daniel Day-Lewis, he was able to win over audiences and change everyone’s opinion about him. This nomination essentially started the career of one of the biggest stars we have ever seen.

Odds of winning: 30/1

1. Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Notable awards: BAFTA, Boston Critics, BFCA, Chicago Critics, Golden Globes (Drama), National Society of Film Critics, New York Critics, SAG

Notable nominations: none

Case for the Oscar: He is going to win again. It is incredible to think about his career, which essentially started a couple years before his Oscar win in 1989. He has only made 10 films since then, including this, his third Oscar win. He never really seems to wear on audiences or voters either. Watching him accept the awards on stage, it just seems like we are watching a walking legend, one so quiet and reserved that it is unbelievable that he turned into Bill the Butcher, Christy Brown, and Daniel Plainview. This role basically decided won him the Oscar the moment the poster came out. He then managed to blow everyone away and exceed expectations. This award is one of the 2 or 3 biggest locks of the year. It is difficult to compare anyone to DDL, since no one has ever won 3 Best Actor awards, let alone winning 3 times in an 11 film span. We should all just sit back and enjoy his career while it lasts and eagerly await the announcement of his next project.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2007 Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis. He was the favorite the moment the trailer came out. He dominated awards season, with the exception of losing the first one, the National Board of Review. His film was nominated in all the right places but was probably never going to win in any of them except for lead actor.

Odds of winning: 1/50

Previous articles:

Best Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Original and Adapted Screenplays

Thoughts? Comments? Coming soon: Best Director!

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Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Best Supporting Actor

This is the most wide open category of this year and of the past few years. The awards have been splitting up between a few actors. The SAG went to one, the Critic’s Choice went to one, the Golden Globe and BAFTA went to another. We have all previous winners. To me, this category somewhat mirrors 2007 Supporting Actress. Nobody can really predict this topsy-turvy race. Sadly, due to the format of the Oscars, this will be the first award given. At least we can start out on a good note. Check it out…

5. Alan Arkin – Argo

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG

Case for the Oscar: Honestly, this is the only one of the nominees that stands no chance at winning. He is just a throw-away nomination that is along for the ride. That is not to say he is undeserving of his nomination, but a win would be more than a little ridiculous. His nomination is just a testament to how much the industry respects his character work.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2011 Best Supporting Actor: Jonah Hill. He was in one of the most popular Best Picture nominees box office-wise, and his performance was noticed by each award show, while never standing a chance at taking any of them. His scene-stealing effort was commendable, but not awards stuff. His nomination was his reward.

Odds of winning: 100/1

4. Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

Notable awards: BFCA, Chicago Critics

Notable nominations: BAFTA, Golden Globes, SAG

Case for the Oscar: He was the critic darling in the category, which doesn’t always lead to Oscar gold. If one of the film’s 3 acting nominations is going to take home the award, he stands the best chance. He was borderline lead, which helps him against the nominees with much shorter screentime. He is one of the most respected actors in the world, which the Academy may want to reinforce by giving him a second Oscar in 7 years. He had the most difficult role of the bunch, and he nailed ever nuance of his volatile character. If the Academy doesn’t hate The Master as much as it appears that they did, then this will be our winner.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2002 Best Actor: Jack Nicholson. He was the critical favorite throughout the season, but the film underwhelmed in its nominations count, only garnering acting nods. He had won less than a decade prior, which perhaps made some voters reluctant to give another award to him so soon. He made a strong push for the Oscar against a host of former winners but came up just short.e our winner. ever nuance of his volatile character.er ion was his reward.

Odds of winning: 6/1

3. Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, SAG

Case for the Oscar: He hasn’t had that signature moment at all this awards season, but he is still right there in the running. There are so many members of the Academy that grew up watching De Niro and idolize him. His first nomination in over 20 years is the perfect chance for all of those members to finally express their appreciation for his career and heartfelt performance in the Weinstein awards train. His performance is not as showy or scene-stealing as any of the other 4 nominees, but his name and movie’s popularity will carry him into serious contention. If the Academy wants to go with Chastain or Riva for Best Actress, then this will be the easiest way to award Silver Linings Playbook.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1974 Best Supporting Actor: Fred Astaire. More than 30 years past his prime, the ever-popular actor got one last great supporting role and made a serious run at the Oscar. He still had a ton of fans, and while it would have been an acceptable win, it would be looked back on as a win with an agenda, throwing one last bone to one of the all time greats.

Odds of winning: 11/2

2. Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

Notable awards: BAFTA, Golden Globes

Notable nominations: none

Case for the Oscar: His role is the most perfectly-written of the year. He is the main character in the movie, giving him much more time to show off. He just won in 2009, but there still may be some leftover love for one of the greatest character performances in recent memory. The two televised wins certainly help his case, despite receiving a strange SAG snub. Critics have called him the best character actor in the world, so when all of these other performances are more understated, one big beautiful showy performance could be the one to get the gold.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1993 Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones. A couple years removed from a very popular character performance in one of the Best Picture contenders, he was nominated again for a lead performance in the supporting category. Some may argue that it was too effortless, but nobody could deny his importance to the story and his scene-stealing ability. His win is seen as a bizarre choice in retrospect, but one that is really hard to take issue with given the actor and popularity of the film.

Odds of winning: 10/3

1. Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

Notable awards: SAG

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes

Case for the Oscar: He is in one of the Best Picture frontrunners. He has the very patriotic role in the movie, garnering the biggest reaction from the audience. He effortlessly steals several scenes, and he is an actor that the industry loves. He is in a film with other acting nominees, which could take away some votes if they want to spread the wealth. He won almost 20 years ago, so they may want to give him a second Oscar before actors who have won in the last 10 years. He looked…uh…less than thrilled to be at Golden Globes without winning, but the odds are that he will not have to suffer through that at the Oscars. Or he could just take off early like Eddie Murphy in ’06.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2004 Best Supporting Actor: Morgan Freeman. He was not really represented well in the critic awards, but he morphed into the frontrunner after several nominations and important mentions during the award season. He was one of the most respected actors out there, and the Academy was running out of legitimate chances to reward him. He got swept in with the popularity of the well-acted Best Picture contender, and won over a terrific group of nominees.

Odds of winning: 3/1

Previous articles:

Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

Best Supporting Actress

Thoughts? Comments? Coming up: Best Actress!

Read More

Reactions to the Nominations: 2013

First off, I loved the new announcement ceremony. It makes it more like a mini-production, rather than just a press conference. It gave a moment between categories, rather than just rattling them off and having to wait until the ticker at the bottom relays them to really process the nominations. Anyway, there are some random inclusions, as usual, but not a ton of shockers. This was made even more interesting by having it take place in front of all of the major awards shows. We still know nothing. I like that. Well, check out what the Academy decided to single out this year and my brief thoughts on it. Enjoy and happy awards season!

Best Picture
Amour

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted: 7 for 9

Reactions: So, it appears even in a year such as this, where there are a clear five films that have stood above the rest throughout the precursors, there are still going to be 9 films nominated. I predicted 8 would be the number. 5% of first place votes seems very significant to me, but maybe it is this spread out every year. I predicted The Master and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel for the top 9, which were replaced by Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild. What this says to me is that Micheal Haneke might be the most popular foreign director in the world (first BP nom for a foreign film since Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon), and nearly every year will have that no-budget indie that will get taken all the way from Sundance to the “Big Dance”. This is not too bad of a lineup. It is much better than the train wreck of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and War Horse last year. It is a solid group for a solid, somewhat below average year overall.

Preliminary prediction: Silver Linings Playbook

Best Director

Michael Haneke – Amour

Ang Lee – Life of Pi

David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: Wait a minute…what? Where’s Ben Affleck!? Really, Academy? Seriously? Come on. That movie screamed Oscar and was probably the most complex direction of the year. He is one of the best directors working right now, makes three home runs in a row, the third of which totally catered to your style, and you cannot nominate him, why? Because he’s Ben Affleck. The day after we see the Baseball Writers of America becoming the story in the sports world by not giving anyone access to the Hall of Fame and making what amounts to a political decision not to put a certain era of players into a baseball museum, the Oscar voters do something similar by deciding to snub the best director of the year just because he used to be a lousy actor and used to fill the tabloids with his love life and whatnot. Give me a break. What do you want the guy to do? Anyway… I digress. I predicted 3 correctly, missing Haneke and Zeitlin by predicting Affleck and Bigelow. I cannot believe that two of the stone cold locks of the season did not make it into the most important category, but hey it was a surprise right? Sure, but not in the category we like to see them in.

Preliminary Prediction: Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

Denzel Washington – Flight

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I knew that last spot would come down to John Hawkes and Hugh Jackman. Jackman was average and one of the worst parts of Les Mis, but he was the lead in a movie the Academy loved. So I guess that is good enough for them. But not for Ben Affleck. I am surprised they didn’t give him the producing shaft and give 2 noms to Clooney instead. Here we have what appears like a one horse race, but I have a sneaky feeling that DDL might get a challenge from Phoenix. They clearly didn’t love The Master, but three acting noms is huge. They might want to give it one of them and not give Day-Lewis a third Oscar when he doesn’t really work all that often. Wishful thinking, maybe/probably…

Preliminary Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts – The Impossible

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had former winners Rachel Weisz and Marion Cotillard in for Wallis and Riva. I love the fact that the oldest ever and youngest ever Best Actress nominees are in the same category. Wallis was terrific in her movie, and definitely deserved to be singled out, but judging by my predictions, I clearly did not think Beastswould be this popular. This category only has two contenders, and judging by the massive love for SLP, I gotta think it is going the way of the budding superstar.

Preliminary Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin – Argo

Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had it written where it was possible that Waltz could get in over DiCaprio. I almost expected it, but I went the other way. The Academy really went out of their way to not be predictable this year. They snubbed some of the biggest contenders in several categories. I have no problem with the group of former winners, though. It is by far the most wide open acting category in years. Which winner will they want to give a second Oscar to first? It won’t be Arkin, who received the throw-away nomination of the year with no chance of winning. Waltz was really a lead, so maybe they go that way? Hoffman gave one of the performances of the year and probably has the best chance of winning in his movie. Tommy Lee Jones has the critical favorite role in the leading nomination-getter. There is two-time winner Robert De Niro in the most popular film with actors. I feel that with all of the Academy members who look up to De Niro and want a comeback so badly that a win here would finally be their way of re-validating him. The Golden Globe snub is still confusing to me, but it happens sometimes.

Preliminary Prediction: Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – The Master

Sally Field – Lincoln

Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

Helen Hunt – The Sessions

Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Well, I had Jacki Weaver on my longlist back in like July. After the precursors started and she didn’t show up anywhere, I knew it was over for her. It’s a random nomination, but a good one. She is a great character actress. I had Nicole Kidman getting that fifth spot. This award is going to Anne Hathaway, but that doesn’t matter. Can anyone name the last time we had a movie with nominees in all four acting categories?...anyone… That’s right, Reds. 1981. That is how unprecedented the love the Academy has for Weinstein…err…Silver Linings Playbook. That is an incredible achievement. This is a solid group of nominees, actually. And it is official…Amy Adams: the next Thelma Ritter. She is nominated for every remotely serious movie she does, yet never really comes close to winning. That has to change.

Preliminary Prediction: Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

Original Screenplay

Amour – Michael Haneke

Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino

Flight – John Gatins

Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola

Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I always look for that random screenplay nomination (The Messenger, Margin Call, In Bruges) to tell me what indie is going to be one of the best movies of the year. The only oddball nom we got was freaking Flight. Horrible. I went against my better judgment and put The Master in the fifth spot. This is an interesting category. Amour seems to be this year’s Talk to Her. Zero Dark Thirty might not be as surefire a winner here like we thought, and Django might have a bit more backing than we thought. It is an interesting race here, but for now, I am going with the upset.

Preliminary Prediction: Amour – Michael Haneke

Adapted Screenplay

Argo – Chris Terrio

Beasts of the Southern Wild – Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin

Life of Pi – David Magee

Lincoln – Tony Kushner

Silver Linings Playbook – David O. Russell

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: It appears all is forgiven with David O. Russell. I guess they can’t do the same for Affleck. Ok, I will stop now. But seriously they probably would have snubbed his movie here if he had received a writing credit. Ok, really done now. Continuing the trend, I had Beasts out in favor of The Perks of Being a Wallflower, which I thought would have a big fan base, but I guess not. This one is over before it even starts.

Preliminary Prediction: Lincoln – Tony Kushner

Cinematography

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Zero Dark Thirty and The Master in and Anna Karenina and Django out. That is a great oddball choice by the Academy, though, putting Robert Richardson’s terrific work in this category. Too bad it was at the expense of The Master, one of the more impressive camera jobs in years. I can only hope that Roger Deakins takes this for his magnificent work on Skyfall, but it isn’t happening. There is a massive epic with CGI, you know... That has to win…

Preliminary Prediction: Life of Pi

Art Direction Production Design

Anna Karenina

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: BOOM! My first/only perfect category, even if I can’t remember that they changed the name of it. Everything here is about normal. Costume dramas, more CGI, yawn…

Preliminary Prediction: Lincoln

Costume Design

Anna Karenina

Les Miserables

Lincoln

Mirror Mirror

Snow White and the Huntsman

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Cloud Atlas in for Snow White and the Huntsman. Two Snow White films in the same category? Nice. Neither of them are winning this.

Preliminary Prediction: Les Miserables

Sound Mixing

Argo

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had Zero Dark Thirty, The Dark Knight Rises, and The Avengers in and Lincoln, Argo, and Skyfall out. I forgot that this is a sneaky important category. Most winners are mentioned here. It is just crazy that Argo gets the shaft in Director, but it is everywhere else it needs to be.

Preliminary Prediction: Les Miserables

Editing

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Les Miserables in for SLP. So, if history is any indication, we officially have three films with a chance: Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, and Life of Pi. For the record, Ordinary People (1980) was the last to win Best Picture without an Editing nomination (that is probably what cost Brokeback Mountain the top prize), and no film since Driving Miss Daisy (1989) has won without a Directing nomination. Interesting developments.

Preliminary Prediction: Zero Dark Thirty

Sound Editing

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had The Dark Knight Rises (shut out, by the way), The Avengers, and Looperin for Argo, Django, and Zero Dark Thirty. Nothing really to comment on here. Life of Pi really is this year’s Hugoand Argo somehow pops up in an action movie category. Alright…

Preliminary Prediction: Skyfall

Visual Effects

The Avengers

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi

Prometheus

Snow White and the Huntsman

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had John Carter and The Dark Knight Risesin for Prometheus and Snow White. This appears to be a competitive category, but recently this award seems to be going to contenders.

Preliminary Prediction: Life of Pi

Makeup and Hairstyling

Hitchcock

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Predicted: 1 for 3

Reactions: I had Looperand Men in Black 3 in for Hitchcock and The Hobbit. This is a very standard Oscar category. I guess I went with a couple underdog ones, since they do like to throw a Norbit or Click in there every once in a while.

Preliminary Prediction: Les Miserables

Song

“Before My Time” – Chasing Ice

“Suddenly” – Les Miserables

“Pi’s Lullaby” – Life of Pi

“Skyfall” – Skyfall

“Everybody Needs a Friend” – Ted

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had the Paul Williams Still Alive, Brave, and Hunger Games songs in for Chasing Ice (what?), Life of Pi, and Ted. Second time in three years that the host is nominated at his ceremony. If I am not mistaken, I believe that a Bond film has never won in this category, so Oscar will find a way to screw this up too.

Preliminary Prediction: “Everybody Needs a Friend” – Ted

Score

Anna Karenina

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had The Master and Zero Dark Thirty in for Skyfall and Anna Karenina. Is it just me, or is Anna Karenina one of the most curiously underperforming movies this year? No real box office, tons of early buzz, four technical nominations. I am still trying to figure out what happened to Keira Knightley. Let’s see…Argo’s score is certainly this year’s Michael Clayton/The Hurt Locker, the one that we will just have to take the voters’ word for it because no one remembers it. Wow, they really hated The Master. Skyfall here? Awesome. I kinda wish we would have seen one major nom for it, the second best of all the Bond films, but oh well.

Preliminary Prediction: Life of Pi

Documentary

5 Broken Cameras

The Gatekeepers

How to Survive a Plague

The Invisible War

Searching for Sugar Man

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had This is Not a Film and Ai Weiwei in for 5 Broken Cameras and The Gatekeepers. I am not too familiar with any of these because none of them have really been widely released or publicized this year. This category is always a bit strange, anyway. I will just take a stab at a semi-upset.

Preliminary Prediction: The Invisible War

Foreign Language Film

Amour

War Witch

No

A Royal Affair

Kon-Tiki

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had The Intouchables in for A Royal Affair. I really thought that was the winner in this category. I never know what to think here. Sometimes the clear favorite (Pan’s Labyrinth, for instance) loses despite several nominations. Sometimes that movie (like last year’s An Education) was winning regardless. Sometimes that favorite (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) is not even submitted by its country for eligibility in this category. I am not sure whether they just love Amour that much and will give it whatever it can, or whether they will want it to really compete for the top awards and not hold it back. I just cannot go against it, though.

Preliminary Prediction: Amour

Animated Feature

Brave

Frankenweenie

ParaNorman

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Wreck-It Ralph

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had From Up on Poppy Hill and Rise of the Guardians in for ParaNorman and The Pirates. This category is really wide open. I am not sure if they want Tim Burton to be a winner yet, but this would be a way to give him a back-handed award, rather than a Best Director. Eh…just for the hell of it, I am going with my heart.

Preliminary Prediction: Wreck-It Ralph

Overall predictions: 72/107; 67.29% (69.23% in 2012)

Without the last 5 categories: 57/82; 69.51% (73.17% in 2012)

On the Big 8 categories: 33/44; 75.00% (79.55% in 2012)

So, I was slightly down from last year, which was slightly down from the year before that. I attribute that to not seeing as many movies the last couple years. Plus, this year was just weird, especially for the top categories. No real off-the-wall Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah-esque shockers, but just some minor surprises. I can and will do better next year!

5 coolest first-time nominees:

(there is no way I can come up with 10 this year)

1. Seth MacFarlane

2. Adele

3. Bradley Cooper

4. Quvenzhane Wallis

5. Roman Coppola

10 worst snubs:

1. Ben Affleck for Best Director

2. The Masterfor Best Cinematography, Sound Mixing, and Best Original Score

3. Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Supporting Actor

4. Looper for Best Original Screenplay

5. The Hunger Gamesfor Best Production Design

6. Kathryn Bigelow for Best Director (I am assuming)

7. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter for Best Visual Effects

8. The Perks of Being a Wallflower for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress (Emma Watson)

9. Matthew McConnaugey for Best Actor (Killer Joe) and Best Supporting Actor (Magic Mike)

10. Richard Gere for Best Actor (getting used to that…)

So, after a discussion with Terry, we came up with the best possible comparison of this year to a past year: 1998. The huge Spielberg production was the odds-on favorite (Saving Private Ryan/Lincoln). There is a beloved foreign film nominated for Best Picture, Director, Acting, Screenplay, etc. (Life if Beautiful/Amour). There is the misunderstood and unconventional military movie (The Thin Red Line/Zero Dark Thirty). There is the popular costume drama (Elizabeth/Les Miserables)…bit of a stretch on that one, I know. There is probably the best movie of the year that got major snubs come nomination morning (The Truman Show/Argo). The movie that is going to take the whole thing, however, is the dark horse comedy distributed by the Weinsteins (Shakespeare in Love/Silver Linings Playbook). They will still throw Spielberg his directing bone, but the crowd-pleaser is the movie that will somehow come out on top for Best Picture. It will be interesting to see how the next few days shape the race, with the Critics Choice Awards tonight and the Golden Globes in three days. I love this time of year!

Stay tuned for our Fifth Annual Oscar Challenge! What do you think of this year’s crop of nominees? Who are you predicting to win? Let me know in the comments.

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