Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Best Actor

With the exception of last year and (sort of) 2008, when we at least had a two horse race for the award, this category has been uncompetitive since 2003. This year is no different. Check out the contenders’ cases for winning and their overall odds below…

5. Denzel Washington – Flight

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG

Case for the Oscar: This was an obvious nominee, but there is just no chance that he is winning this. His role called for a much different side of Washington than we are used to seeing, but the movie was a bit ridiculous and went too light when it could have really dug into the character study elements that would have left Washington with no choice but to bring it. It is a fine performance, but the other contenders have much stronger cases. Even though he is one of the most popular actors in the world, I cannot see him getting a third before Day-Lewis gets his third.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1991 Best Actor: Robert De Niro. This was a commercially popular film that got solid reviews, yet there was a portion of audiences that hated it. The nomination here was an easy choice, but going up against a juggernaut and having no real signature wins throughout awards season caused the universally popular two-time winner to have no real chance going into the ceremony. His nomination was his reward.

Odds of winning: 150/1

4. Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

Notable awards: Los Angeles Critics

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes

Case for the Oscar: He gave the best performance of the year. His role is filled with Oscar scenes. He pushed himself further in this role than anyone did in 2012. However, his movie did was not a hit with the Academy. He expressed his hatred for the entire awards process. He gave a 2 hour middle finger to Hollywood with I’m Still Here. If the Academy is being honest, then Phoenix will win. They won’t, so he won’t.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2011 Best Actress: Rooney Mara. The movie was well-received from critics and from a portion of audiences. She missed out on the SAG nomination, causing many people to doubt her chances at the Oscar nom. The Academy wound up having enough people who are still trying to awarding the best achievements in film, so the nomination came. Going up against a legend and a couple more performances in much more popular films restricted her from taking home her Oscar.

Odds of winning: 75/1

3. Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables

Notable awards: Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical)

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, SAG

Case for the Oscar: He is a very popular guy. He has even hosted the show, which was fairly well-received. That one moron lady one the Oscar nominations telecast called it “probably the most mind-blowing performance I have ever seen”. So, even though his singing is really awkward, he clearly captured a wide audience. Missing out on the Directing and Screenplay categories shows that the film is not as popular as it should have been on paper, but his performance has been singled out as being one of the year’s best. It is hard to imagine him winning an Oscar, considering he has never really been in a good movie outside of the first two X-Men flicks, but role is just so much Oscar bait that if they are not going to give DDL his third, then this has about as good of a chance as anyone.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1966 Best Actor: Steve McQueen. A bit of a strange comparison, I know. He was one of the more popular actors around. He had several better roles, but this effortless role in an Oscar movie is the one that broke him through to get his only nomination. He probably got a fair amount of votes, but the winner was obvious and predetermined.

Odds of winning: 50/1

2. Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook

Notable awards: National Board of Review

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical), Spirit Awards, SAG

Case for the Oscar: He is a rising star, and this role proved to all of the skeptics that he actually can act. He is in the favorite of the acting branch of the Academy, which is the largest portion of the population. The movie could be a surprise winner for the major awards, which just might be enough to sweep in its star to officially start the career of a future megastar and leading man in Hollywood for the next several decades.

Oscar Doppelganger: 1989 Best Actor: Tom Cruise. He had already won over audiences with his box office hits, but playing against type for one of the more respected directors of his time brought him his first, well-deserved Oscar nom. His film was one of the favorites for the top prizes, and despite the presence of the obvious favorite Daniel Day-Lewis, he was able to win over audiences and change everyone’s opinion about him. This nomination essentially started the career of one of the biggest stars we have ever seen.

Odds of winning: 30/1

1. Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Notable awards: BAFTA, Boston Critics, BFCA, Chicago Critics, Golden Globes (Drama), National Society of Film Critics, New York Critics, SAG

Notable nominations: none

Case for the Oscar: He is going to win again. It is incredible to think about his career, which essentially started a couple years before his Oscar win in 1989. He has only made 10 films since then, including this, his third Oscar win. He never really seems to wear on audiences or voters either. Watching him accept the awards on stage, it just seems like we are watching a walking legend, one so quiet and reserved that it is unbelievable that he turned into Bill the Butcher, Christy Brown, and Daniel Plainview. This role basically decided won him the Oscar the moment the poster came out. He then managed to blow everyone away and exceed expectations. This award is one of the 2 or 3 biggest locks of the year. It is difficult to compare anyone to DDL, since no one has ever won 3 Best Actor awards, let alone winning 3 times in an 11 film span. We should all just sit back and enjoy his career while it lasts and eagerly await the announcement of his next project.

Oscar Doppelganger: 2007 Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis. He was the favorite the moment the trailer came out. He dominated awards season, with the exception of losing the first one, the National Board of Review. His film was nominated in all the right places but was probably never going to win in any of them except for lead actor.

Odds of winning: 1/50

Previous articles:

Best Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Original and Adapted Screenplays

Thoughts? Comments? Coming soon: Best Director!

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Oscar Breakdown and Handicapping: Original and Adapted Screenplay

Over the next two weeks leading up to the Oscars, I am going to do a series breaking down each major categories individually and giving my own Vegas-style odds for each nominee’s chances of winning. Almost all of the relevant awards have taken place, with the exception of the Editing, Sound, Sound Editing, Costume Designers guilds. So if you need help with the OSCAR CHALLENGE, my advice is to just check the winners of those guilds over the next week or so and just go with them. Or just take Life of Pi in every technical category and the odds are that you will do just fine.

As for the screenplay categories, the Writers Guild of America (WGA), while it has the most member crossover with the Academy, there are always like 10 contending screenplays that are ineligible. They cannot fully be trusted, but they are a decent indicator. Their awards take place on Sunday, February 17^th, so some of the odds could be shifted a bit, but they aren’t going to completely shake anything up. All Oscar members vote on the winner, not just the writers. Check out my breakdown of the category below…

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This category seemed basically decided a couple weeks ago. Now that Argo has steamrolled the competition in every single awards circuit, we have a race. Oh by the way, Silver Linings Playbook took the BAFTA, which has come to mean a lot in the past few years. It feels like the winner of this category will be our Best Picture winner.

5. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA, USC Scripter

Case for the Oscar: The film got so much more love from the AMPAS than was expected. It clearly has its backing from the members, but these types of films do not win in the screenplay categories.

Oscar Doppelganger: Winter’s Bone, 2010. It has a similar pedigree and ultra-indie style film with a Best Picture nom. It had almost no chance of winning in the category due to the heavy favorites in the category.

Odds of winning: 250/1

4. Life of Pi (David Magee)

Notable awards: Satellite

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, USC Scripter, WGA

Case for the Oscar: David Magee is a previous nominee (Finding Neverland). His film is pure Oscar bait, and there is a small chance that it could go all the way in several categories. It is not really a screenplay achievement, but if it is going to have a chance in the major categories, then this is probably the least consequential award it could throw its way. I like the film’s chance in Director more than Screenplay.

Oscar Doppelganger: Gladiator, 2000. It was a visual spectacle, yet only a decent achievement in screenplay. It looks and feels like a major Oscar contender, but there are a couple clear frontrunners in the category that prevent it from taking home the screenplay award.

Odds of winning: 80/1

3. Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)

Notable awards: BAFTA, National Board of Review

Notable nominations: BFCA, Golden Globes, Spirit Awards, USC Scripter, WGA

Case for the Oscar: The Weinstein factor is definitely prevalent here. Unless there is an unforeseen sweep for the film, this is its best chance to award David O. Russell for the first time. His speeches and appearances in interviews have been heartfelt and emotional. It is the story of his son, and that connection could pull a lot of votes for him. The material is total Oscar stuff, even more so than the films in front of it. These are the kinds of films that win.

Oscar Doppelganger: Precious, 2009. It was a great surprise on Oscar night when it won the award over the heavy favorite Up in the Air. It was the best chance to award the filmmaking of the indie that was all the talk around awards time but was stuck behind a couple unstoppable forces.

Odds of winning: 4/1

2. Lincoln (Tony Kushner)

Notable awards: Boston Critics, BFCA, Chicago Critics, National Society of Film Critics, New York Critics

Notable nominations: BAFTA, Golden Globes, USC Scripter, WGA

Case for the Oscar: It seemed as if there was no chance that it could lose a couple weeks ago. The screenplay is the movie, almost coming off like a stage play. It is very sophisticated and not really a typical winner, but one that should be awarded for keeping our attention for 150 minutes of dialogue.

Oscar Doppelganger: Good Night , and Good Luck, 2005. The styles are similar, being backboned by the dialogue-heavy script. It pretty much dominated awards season until one film rose up at the last minute and took its award. Lincoln’s chances are slightly better, though.

Odds of winning: 2/1

1. Argo (Chris Terrio)

Notable awards: Los Angeles Critics, USC Scripter

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, WGA

Case for the Oscar: It is the overwhelming favorite for the top prize, so unless it is going to be the second film ever to take that without any other wins, then this is its best chance for another award. The script is tight and complex. The Scripter award has correlated with the Oscar every year since 2007. There are easier films to award in contention, and an “upset” would not be all that unexpected. However, at this point (WGA result pending), it is the one to beat.

Oscar Doppelganger: Breaking Away, 1979. This is a bit of a stretch, but what Argo has done is unprecedented and impossible to find a similar case. This is a terrific screenplay that took home the award against several more easily-digestible Oscar movies, including a courtroom drama and a lovable comedy-drama. It is probably the favorite to win, but it is by no means a significant favorite.

Odds of winning: 3/2

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This category has taken quite a few shifts throughout awards season. Early on, it appeared that Zero Dark Thirty was going to be a slam dunk winner. Django Unchained’s buzz has come and gone and come back again. Amour continues to defy the odds and garner more buzz and accolades. This is always one of the coolest categories at the ceremony.

5. Flight (John Gatins)

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BFCA, WGA

Case for the Oscar: This film stands almost no chance of winning. It is a great story, but the script is sort of sloppily-written. It does have some great characters, and the film did really well at the box office. Gatins is an interesting guy, and his roller coaster ride to the Oscar ceremonyis really a great story. A win would be one of the biggest shockers in recent memory, but never underestimate the popularity of Denzel Washington.

Oscar Doppelganger: The Color of Money, 1986. This is another commercially-popular movie with a nominated lead performance and directed by a major director. The movie was never really looked at as one of true quality, but it did receive some love from awards. The screenplay nomination is odd and had no chance going in, even though the main contenders were not exactly juggernauts.

Odds of winning: 350/1

4. Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola)

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit Awards, WGA

Case for the Oscar: Wes Anderson movies are always among those films that are so quirky and interesting, yet they just cannot appeal to everyone. This film is his most conventional, which makes me think that this could be the film that the Academy could reward him for. These coming-of-age stories are not too popular in terms of winning screenplays, but the nominations are common. If there is a shock winner in either screenplay category, it could and should be this.

Oscar Doppelganger: Full Metal Jacket, 1987. The movie was made by a master of misunderstood and niche filmmaking. After a host of popular and nominated films, he made his most accessible movie yet. Screenplay was the film’s sole nomination, and while its chances of winning were slim, it may have been the best chance that its writer had at it.

Odds of winning: 50/1

 3. Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)

Notable awards: Chicago Critics, Satellite

Notable nominations: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes, WGA

Case for the Oscar: Mark Boal is a past winner, and there still may be some leftover love for The Hurt Locker. This film is so thickly researched and thrilling, and at least in my eyes, almost all of that credit should be given to Boal. His film missed out on a Best Director bid, which dampens the support for the film a bit. This screenplay is one of the contenders still, and I would not be shocked at all to hear it called on Oscar night.

Oscar Doppelganger: Crimes and Misdemeanors, 1989. After winning the Oscar, a few years later he is again invited to the ceremony with another huge success and brilliant screenplay. All of the main Best Picture contenders were in the Adapted category, so original could have gone to almost anything. The Academy may have wanted the writer to wait a little while for another award.

Odds of winning: 6/1

2. Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)

Notable awards: BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globes

Notable nominations: none

Case for the Oscar: It has been almost 20 years since Tarantino has won his Oscar, despite being perhaps the most popular American filmmaker working today. He was taken down by Mark Boal in 2009, and if he loses this time, then it will be like a Hilary Swank-Annette Bening type of rivalry beginning to brew. Django has the important wins so far, and since it was ineligible at the WGA, he won’t have to worry about losing steam there. Almost any other time, he would be the favorite. There is just one film ahead that has even more support than Tarantino’s blockbuster.

Oscar Doppelganger: As Good As It Gets, 1997. James L. Brooks won his Oscar more than a decade before, and this was his best chance to take home a second for screenwriting. He was up against a film that didn’t really have the awards or expectations as his film, but it had more overall Oscar support and wound up taking home the prize in what had to be an achingly close vote.

Odds of winning: 5/2

1. Amour (Michael Haneke)

Notable awards: none

Notable nominations: BAFTA

Case for the Oscar: Michael Haneke’s films have been revolving around the Oscars for a while now, but this is easily his most accessible movie. The film has nominations in every major category that he could ask for, so we know the support is great. Despite being the no-brainer for Foreign Film, this is the category that the Academy can really show their support for the film and Haneke’s work on it. The other two realistic contenders are past winners, and Haneke got his first nominations this year at age 70. It would seem as if it is his turn.

Oscar Doppelganger: Talk to Her, 2002. If there had been the rules there are now back in 2002, then these cases would be identical. Almodovar’s film was up against a couple highly-touted writers, but his beautiful and heartbreaking film took home the award, the first for a foreign film since 1966. Look for something similar to happen. It may seem like an upset on paper, but given the situation and huge love for Amour, I am almost expecting it.

Odds of winning: 2/1

 

So, what do you think? What are your doppelgangers? Request me other non-Big 8 categories if you need more help with the OSCAR CHALLENGE. Stay tuned in the next couple days for my breakdown of Best Supporting Actress.

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2013 Golden Globes Preview and Predictions

The Golden Globes is always one of the more interesting awards ceremonies. Their nominations are crazy at times, thirsting for the star power of actors and directors. Sometimes, they have interesting nominations, but other times we end up with Julia Roberts in Duplicity and Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp in the universally-panned The Tourist. They love international actors as well, perhaps most evident in the fact that Sasha Baron Cohen won for Borat presumably because he is a HFPA member. They are also the only awards that have a comedy split and still do not nominate the Apatow films. Ridiculous. I love it. I will take a shot at the TV nominations (they love movie stars for those categories too, as well as new TV shows), followed by the film categories, along with a lineup for fun of what the HFPA would choose if they really had no structure. Nominations are announced on December 13. Here it goes:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TV MOVIE

1. Maggie Smith – Downton Abbey

2. Sofia Vergara – Modern Family

3. Julie Bowen – Modern Family

4. Ellen Burstyn – Political Animals

5. Chloe Sevigny – American Horror Story: Asylum

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES, MINISERIES, OR TV MOVIE

1. Ed Harris – Game Change

2. Aaron Paul – Breaking Bad

3. Eric Stonestreet – Modern Family

4. Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones

5. Tom Berenger – Hatfields and McCoys

BEST ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR TV MOVIE

1. Julianne Moore – Game Change

2. Jessica Lange – American Horror Story: Asylum

3. Nicole Kidman – Hemingway and Gellhorn

4. Queen Latifah – Steel Magnolias

5. Sigourney Weaver – Political Animals

BEST ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR TV MOVIE

1. Kevin Costner – Hatfields and McCoys

2. Benedict Cumberbatch – Sherlock

3. Woody Harrelson – Game Change

4. Bill Paxton – Hatfields and McCoys

5. Clive Owen – Hemingway and Gellhorn

BEST MINISERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE

1. Game Change

2. Sherlock

3. American Horror Story: Asylum

4. Political Animals

5. Hatfields and McCoys

BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep

2. Zooey Deschanel – New Girl

3. Lena Dunham – Girls

4. Mindy Kaling – The Mindy Project

5. Kat Dennings – 2 Broke Girls

BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Louis CK – Louie

2. Matthew Perry – Go On

3. Matt LeBlanc – Episodes

4. Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory

5. Charlie Sheen – Anger Management

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Modern Family

2. Girls

3. Louie

4. New Girl

5. Go On

BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

1. Claire Danes – Homeland

2. Connie Britton – Nashville

3. Julianna Margulies – The Good Wife

4. Kathy Bates – Harry’s Law

5. Michelle Dockery – Downton Abbey

BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

1. Damian Lewis – Homeland

2. Jon Hamm – Mad Men

3. Bryan Cranston – Breaking Bad

4. Kelsey Grammer – Boss

5. Jeff Daniels – The Newsroom

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

1. Homeland

2. Mad Men

3. Downton Abbey

4. The Newsroom

5. Game of Thrones

BEST ANIMATED FILM

1. Brave

2. Rise of the Guardians

3. ParaNorman

4. Frankenweenie

5. Hotel Transylvania

Explanation: These seemed to be the biggest box office hits of the year, along with the hyped Rise of the Guardians. I would love to see Wreck-It Ralph included, but I just do not see awards in the future of the coolest animated film of the year.

BEST FOREIGN FILM

1. The Intouchables

2. Amour

3. Rust and Bone

4. Beyond the Hills

5. A Trip

Explanation: There aren’t any American movies in a foreign language, so that makes this a bit more difficult. The Globes like to nominate the foreign language films that have acting performances nominated in other categories. Yeah…I will stop acting like I know what I am talking about here. Just guesses.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Skyfall” – Skyfall

2. “Learn Me Right” – Brave

3. “Suddenly” – Les Miserables

4. “Celebrate” – Sparkle

5. “Wide Awake” – Katy Perry: Part of Me

Explanation: This is just a weird category. The songs here are typically different than the Oscars, and they are desperate for stars. The Sparkle cast, Adele, and Katy Perry will take care of that.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Master

2. Lincoln

3. Anna Karenina

4. Life of Pi

5. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Explanation: I haven’t seen three of these, but they seem like locks for having memorable scores. The HFPA has had some interesting nominees for this category recently, such as The Painted Veil, W.E., and Grace is Gone.

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE

1. Argo

2. Silver Linings Playbook

3. Django Unchained

4. The Master

5. The Sessions

Explanation: Predicting the screenplay here is just odd. It is the only awards shoe that does not split it up into original and adapted. I will go with the major contenders, but they do throw a wrench in there every once in a while (It’s Complicated, for one).

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE

1. Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

2. Ben Affleck – Argo

3. Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained

4. Tom Hooper – Les Miserables

5. David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Explanation: Not only are these the main contenders, but three of them are the big names that the Globes love. Spielberg will likely take this, whether his film is winning Best Picture or not. They just do not care as much as the Oscars do. Julian Schnabel won Best Director for a film not nominated for Best Picture back in 2007. The Oscars would never dare do such a thing so radical…

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Ben Affleck – Argo

Dustin Hoffman – Quartet

Peter Jackson – The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight Rises

Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

1. Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

2. Amy Adams – The Master

3. Sally Field – Lincoln

4. Scarlett Johansson – Hitchcock

5. Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook

Explanation: The Globes love Scarlett. She had four legitimate nominations in four years without an Oscar nomination. This category seems fairly straight-forward, but Weaver is really just a random stab. Helen Hunt could just as easily snag that spot for The Sessions if she is supporting.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Amy Adams – The Master

Jessica Biel – Hitchcock

Marion Cotillard – The Dark Knight Rises

Scarlett Johansson – Hitchcock

Amanda Seyfried – Les Miserables

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

1. Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained

2. Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

3. Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

4. Tom Cruise – Rock of Ages

5. Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike

Explanation: This category seems almost perfect for the HFPA. We have the biggest stars right now. The Globes love their comedies, even in the categories that are not split. McConaughey and Cruise seem completely obvious for inclusions here. So, the following mock list is almost identical...

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Tom Cruise – Rock of Ages

Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained

Tom Hanks – Cloud Atlas

Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

2. Meryl Streep – Hope Springs

3. Judi Dench – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

4. Mary Elizabeth Winstead – Smashed

5. Barbara Streisand – The Guilt Trip

Explanation: This would be an interesting group for the GG. All of the nominees would be fairly predictable, but it would diversify the films represented here a bit. A cool surprise inclusion here would likely be Anna Kendrick in Pitch Perfect. She is probably more likely than Winstead, actually, but I will stick with my five. Maybe Winstead is the way that they could get Aaron Paul to show up if they snub him for Breaking Bad.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Julianne Hough – Rock of Ages

Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

Julia Roberts – Mirror Mirror

Meryl Streep – Hope Springs

Emma Watson – The Perks of Being a Wallflower

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables

2. Bill Murray – Hyde Park on Hudson

3. Jack Black – Bernie

4. Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook

5. Channing Tatum – Magic Mike

Explanation: This is always where the crazy stuff happens at the GG, but there was just too much quality work in comedy/musicals this year. This category might not be as ridiculous as a typical year, but who knows? It could look something like this…

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Sasha Baron Cohen – The Dictator

Johnny Depp – Dark Shadows

Colin Farrell – Seven Psychopaths

Will Ferrell – The Campaign

Jonah Hill – 21 Jump Street

Channing Tatum – Magic Mike

BEST MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY/MUSICAL

1. Les Miserables

2. Silver Linings Playbook

3. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

4. Dark Shadows

5. Magic Mike

Explanation: Usually this category has the biggest box office hits of the year, but recently we got one of the most infamous flops ever, The Tourist. All bets are off now. This is my best guess.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

The Avengers

Dark Shadows

Magic Mike

Rock of Ages

Ted

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

1. Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone

2. Helen Mirren – Hitchcock

3. Jennifer Lawrence – The Hunger Games

4. Keira Knightley – Anna Karenina

5. Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

Explanation: This seems to be the category with the most merit at the Golden Globes. This is where the foreign performances will show up, and this is where they have a hard time finding ridiculous nominations to include. This seems like a fairly safe group, and it gives them an excuse to invite The Hunger Games and the tidal wave of buzz that comes with it.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Halle Berry – Cloud Atlas

Anne Hathaway – The Dark Knight Rises

Jennifer Lawrence – The Hunger Games

Blake Lively – Savages

Emma Stone – The Amazing Spider-Man

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

1. Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

2. Denzel Washington – Flight

3. Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

4. Brad Pitt – Killing Them Softly

5. Anthony Hopkins – Hitchcock

Explanation: These actors seem like a typical group for the Golden Globes. They do like to nominate the leads of their favorite movies that get ignored by the other awards (Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter, James McAvoy in Atonement, etc.), so Ben Affleck could sneak in there for Argo. Otherwise, this one seems pretty much locked up.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Christian Bale – The Dark Knight Rises

Tom Cruise – Jack Reacher

Matt Damon – Promised Land

Clint Eastwood –Trouble with the Curve

Brad Pitt – Killing Them Softly

Denzel Washington – Flight

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

1. Argo

2. Lincoln

3. Django Unchained

4. The Master

5. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Explanation: There is sometimes a random movie that sneaks into this category (Bobby, for example), but there were just too many Globes-friendly movies this year. There are a ton of contenders that got left out (Flight may be a total Globes film and get several nominations), but these seem to be the safest picks, despite not knowing anything about the quality of Django or The Hobbit yet.

The HFPA Dream Lineup:

Argo

The Dark Knight Rises

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

The Hunger Games

Lincoln

So, there you have it. What do you think? Am I missing a big name actor that the HFPA loves? What are the indie flicks that the Golden Globes might love this year? Let me know what you think and post your own in the comments. Look us up on Facebook.

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