2014 Oscar Predictions: September

Since my last Oscar predictions article in March, a lot has happened to shake up the race. A handful of contenders have already gotten their early release that will probably negatively impact their Oscar chances. We are also still eagerly awaiting trailer arrivals of our last two legitimate frontrunners Foxcatcher and Labor Day. Usually the longer the film stays out of the public eye, the better chance it has of sustaining buzz throughout awards season. So, good news for those two films, I guess. My last article is going to seem a bit foolish as we sit here six months later, but that is all part of the fun of it. See how the race is shaping up below:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Labor Day – Jason Reitman – The movie sounds like something that could be this year’s Little Childrenor something. It needs a trailer to cement its status in the major categories, but Reitman is becoming one of the more beloved writer-directors of our time.

2. The Wolf of Wall Street – Terence Winter – Everyone loves Boardwalk Empire. It is a Scorsese movie. It seems like a near lock in this category.

3. Before Midnight – Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, Julie Delpy – The previous installment was nominated here, and this is even more of a screenplay achievement. With a good DVD campaign, this nomination should be a no-brainer.

4. Foxcatcher – E Max Frye, Dan Futterman – A writer on Band of Brothers and the writer of Capote combine for this potentially fascinating character study. If it is any good, this nomination will come flying its way.

5. 12 Years a Slave – John Ridley – This movie has a lot going for it. I could see it being a potentially huge Oscar movie. This nomination should be no problem for the previously unaccomplished veteran writer.

Others in contention

6. The Fifth Estate – Josh Singer – The movie is very timely and seemingly intense. Screenplay seems like the film’s best shot at hitting at the Oscars.

7. The Monuments Men – George Clooney, Grant Heslov – The movie’s trailer was brilliant, but sort of hurt its Oscar chances. This seems to be more of a blockbuster, almost in a Gangster Squad kind of way. Hopefully it is better than that, but screenplay is its perceived ceiling at this point. But then again, it is George Clooney…

8. Captain Phillips – Billy Ray – The movie is going to take place solely on a boat, which will make the writing vital to its success. I like its chances here.

9. August: Osage County – Tracy Letts – Screenplays based on plays are not recognized here often, but the movie is going to be a big hit.

10. (Lee Daniels’) The Butler – Danny Strong – Everyone seems to really like Strong’s writing, and the movie is one of the underdog contenders for the top prize.

11.  The Secret Life of Walter Mitty– Steve Conrad – The movie surprised everyone with its trailer. Even if it hits, this might be an uphill climb for the film. It is still in the running, though.

12. The Spectacular Now – Scott Neustadter, Michael H Weber – Nostalgic movies like this do not get recognized often, but this could be the best chance for an indie hit to get in this year.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. American Hustle – Eric Singer – It is probably the frontrunner for the big prize. A screenplay nom should be easy, and the win seems likely for the relative newcomer.

2. Inside Llewyn Davis – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – Screenplay nominations are the base recognition for the Coens. The other categories are the ones that are really in question.

3. Fruitvale Station – Ryan Coogler – Even if they do not want to give major category love to the movie, screenplay seems like an easy way to express appreciation for the film and the young debut writer-director.

4. Blue Jasmine – Woody Allen – His drama movies are usually even more of a lock for screenplay than his comedies. This should be an easy nomination for Woody.

5. Parkland – Peter Landesman – If the movie is as good as it looks, then a screenplay nom should be assured just for handling that many different characters well.

 Others in contention

6. Saving Mr. Banks – Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith – The movie is going to be a big hit. Even if it is a bit light, the Academy gives screenplay nominations to the movies they love. This promises to be one of those films.

7. Rush – Peter Morgan – Every time Morgan writes a movie, we should pay attention. I don’t know how awards friendly the movie will be, but the historical Ron Howard movies have been hugely successful in the past.

8. Gravity – Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron – With a movie as isolated as this one, it is going to be all about the writing to determine whether it is believable.

9. All Is Lost – JC Chandor – Same as Gravity.

10. The Counselor – Cormac McCarthy – His novels make great movies. We will see if his screenplays do the same.

11.  Kill Your Darlings – Austin Brunn, John Korkidas – The movie looks like it could suffer the same unfortunate fate as On the Road last year, but it has a great trailer and a terrific young cast. It looks sophisticated and well-written.

12. Don Jon – Joseph Gordon-Levitt – It may be too dirty for the Academy, but it looks amazing. This would be an awesome nomination.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Jennifer Garner – Dallas Buyers Club – She still has got to be the frontrunner, especially after the trailer. She and her hubby Ben Affleck are in the news all the time. That usually helps.

2. Shirley MacLaine – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty – She is in one of the frontrunners and she hasn’t been nominated in 29 years. She seems like a safe bet.

3. Oprah Winfrey – The Butler – Ever since I saw the cast for this movie, I suspected she would get nominated. That hasn’t changed.

4. Cameron Diaz – The Counselor – She is always in and around awards movies, but she has yet to get the big Oscar nom. This looks like her best chance yet, even better than Vanilla Sky and Being John Malkovich.

5. Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle – She looks great in the trailer. She is going to be talked about all year again with Catching Fire coming out. Look for a third nom for the 23 year old megastar.

 

Others in contention

6. Elizabeth Olsen – Oldboy – She has one of the best parts in the movie. I can’t wait to see what Spike Lee does with it/her. If she nails it, she could easily slide in.

7. Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station – She is emotional and subtle. It is not a typical Oscar role, but she is fantastic and the category is sort of thin.

8. Carey Mulligan – Inside Llewyn Davis – She has had a handful of worthy roles, but she still has just that one nom. The Coens could carry her to her second.

9. Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine – She was outstanding in her supporting role. Woody does wonders for his supporting women. If the Academy really likes the movie, look out for a potential win for Hawkins.

10. Scarlett Johansson – Don Jon – She looks like she nails the look and accent of New Jersey white trash. It would be a cool and atypical choice for the four-time Golden Globe nominee.

11. Marcia Gay Harden – Parkland – In the terrific ensemble, I suspect that a former winner like Harden has the best chance of getting singled out.

12. Emily Watson – The Book Thief – The movie sounds very Oscary, and she hasn’t been invited back since 1998. That should change.

13. Kim Basinger – Third Person – She is being directed by Paul Haggis. She hasn’t been nominated since her win in 1997. Oscar always loves to validate wins with nominations later on.

14. Cate Blanchett – The Monuments Men – She looks like the standout in the movie. It might not be serious enough to be a big Oscar movie, but she is Cate Blanchett. Everyone loves her. A double nom is possible.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks – Hanks playing Walt Disney is a heavenly casting choice. We will see if it lives up to the hype. Either way, a first career supporting nom should be easy for him.

2. John Goodman – Inside Llewyn Davis – Everyone seems eager to finally throw him a bone. He is the best part of the trailer. The Coens have a gift for writing amazing parts for him. I love his chances.

3. Daniel Bruhl – Rush – He is going to have a breakout year with this and The Fifth Estate. His part here is said to be great and show-stealing.

4. Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club – He could get the nom just like Jaye Davidson did for The Crying Game playing a similar part. He looks scary realistic in this role. If the Academy can get over the perceived grudge against him, his nom seems secure.

5. Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave – It seems like every year I am writing about him getting his first nomination. The villain role in one of the frontrunners seems like his best chance yet.

 

Others in contention

6. Bradley Cooper – American Hustle – He has the villain-type role, which Oscar will love. He also had his best work in The Place Beyond the Pines. He may snatch up his second nom in as many years.

7. Paul Dano – Prisoners – He looks positively frightening in that movie. He was probably in the top 10 or so for There Will Be Blood and Little Miss Sunshine, so the Academy will not feel too opposed to giving the talented young character actor his first nom.

8. Matthew McConaughey – The Wolf of Wall Street – It appears to be his year. A potential double nom would ensure that he wins for one of them.

9. Matthew McConaughey – Mud – It is still one of the safest and best reviewed movies of the year. He How much has the Academy warmed up to him?

10. Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher – He seems to be the one of the three leads most likely to go supporting. He is likely going to have a very sympathetic role, which will be against type. I am beyond intrigued by the casting in this film.

11. Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips – The more trailers I see for the film, the more his role seems to be more than just a one-note throwaway villain role. If the movie is really popular, looks for the Academy to try to get another newcomer invited to the ceremony.

12. Woody Harrelson – Out of the Furnace – The movie has some quiet buzz, but judging by the trailer, he seems to have the role to still be in contention.

13. Will Forte – Nebraska – He could get swept in with the love for the film. Some have said that he is co-lead with Bruce Dern, but he will wind up being campaigned in this category.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks – I think that the two-time winner is still the favorite in the category. The movie seems light, but she looks terrific in it. It is rare that Best Actress goes to the gutsiest role (except in 2010), so she has got to be the frontrunner at this point.

2. Judi Dench – Philomena – Her role sounds emotional and perfect for her. She gets nominated for everything.

3. Meryl Streep – August: Osage County – She has been shifting between lead and supporting, but she will eventually land here and maybe win her fourth.

4. Kate Winslet – Labor Day – She seems to get nominated whenever she has a really good role. This movie seems to be written for her, which Reitman has admitted that he does often.

5. Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine – Dench, Strepp, Winslet, Blanchett…it is Oscars circa 2006 all over again. She has the mentally unstable character and maybe the best Woody Allen leading female since Annie Hall. She is a lock for a nom, but a win seems unlikely.

Others in contention

6. Amy Adams – American Hustle – She is said to have the best role in the movie. She could be the Jessica Chastain of this year, or they could just make her continue to wait for her first leading nomination.

7. Marion Cotillard – Lowlife The Immigrant – I still think she will be a threat, even if the movie is not as popular as it first promised to be. She plays the stripper role, which Oscar always loves.

8. Julia Roberts – August: Osage County – She will likely split votes with Streep, but perhaps the movie will be popular enough that they both get in.

9. Berenice Bejo – The Past – Her role sounds terrific. Maybe the voters are still enough in love with The Artist and A Separationthat they will want to nom her.

10. Naomi Watts – Diana – The movie looks way too conventional, but that doesn’t always stop the voters. It seems like a dream casting for Watts.

11. Nicole Kidman – Grace of Monaco – I do not completely buy her playing Grace Kelly, but she has been cited as being incredible in the role. Oscar still loves her.

12. Sandra Bullock – Gravity – It is said to be all Bullock in the movie. She seems poised for a second nom soon.

13. Chloe Grace-Moretz – Carrie – If the Academy wants to go for cool and outside the box like when Sissy Spacek was nominated for the same role, then this would certainly have people talking.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club – The trailer confirmed that McConaughey is going after the Oscar. The role appears to be his most difficult ever, and he is the hero of the story. Sounds like Oscar cannot resist…if they feel he has finally paid his dues.

2. Forest Whitaker – The Butler – His last win has undoubtedly left some goodwill with the voters. He is said to carry this star-studded movie. I think a nom for him is assured.

3. Bruce Dern – Nebraska – There was debate on whether he was lead or supporting. Either way, it seems like a role that cannot miss with the voters. With all of his great work in his career, he still only has that one supporting nom for Coming Home. That is about to change.

4. Robert Redford – All Is Lost – He needs a second acting nom, and this Cast Away-ish role seems like a “can’t miss” with Oscar voters.

5. Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave – He should have gotten in by now, but this role looks like his best ever. Even if the film is not beloved, look for him to show up throughout the precursors a lot like Fassbender did for Shame and make a run at a nom anyway.

Others in contention

6. Idris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom – There is not any real reason as to why he lost the top spot, other than his movie looks a bit more conventional than I was hoping for. Sometimes that is just what the Academy is looking for, though.

7. Josh Brolin – Labor Day – His role sounded like a lock when he was supporting, but if he is lead, that type of role is a much tougher sell.

8. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher – I want so bad for him to be incredible in the movie. Give me a trailer already so I can cement him in my top 5! If he is supporting, then he is getting in anyway.

9. Christian Bale – American Hustle – He looks almost unrecognizable in the trailer (surprise, surprise…). He is one of the hottest actors going right now. He will get his votes.

10. Hugh Jackman – Prisoners – The movie looks campy, but it could be our next great revenge thriller. Everyone seems to love Jackman. Why not a second consecutive nom?

11. Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis – If he were a bigger name, I would think that he is a lock. We will see how many reviews single him out to determine his eventual fate in this category.

12. Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips – He is going to be in the spotlight all awards season with this and his supposedly supporting turn as Walt Disney. This does not seem to be too far out of his comfort zone, but he is Tom Hanks, so he is in contention.

13. Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station – He is the best thing from the first half or so of the year. The movie will regain some buzz in the next month or so with the DVD release. Hopefully voters see it. He and the film are kind of terrific.

14. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street – DiCaprio still only has three nominations somehow. The role appears a bit too Gatsby-ish. That could hurt his chances.

15. Ralph Fiennes – The Invisible Woman – There really is no word on the status of this movie, but Fiennes has had some incredible work recently and hasn’t gotten invited back since The English Patient. Playing Charles Dickens could finally be his ticket back to the show.

16. Channing Tatum – Foxcatcher – The stills we have seen suggest that Tatum is getting back to his A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints authentic acting, which was one of the best performances of 2006. He is billed as lead, which will be difficult for members to vote for him. He can carry the movie though.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. David O. Russell – American Hustle – David O. Russell has been close to winning this his last two times out. If this is as popular of a movie as it could be, then he could potentially win here even if his film isn’t Best Picture material. It appears the Academy has completely forgotten about what a jerk he used to be to his actors…

2. Jason Reitman – Labor Day – I will continue to hype this movie until I am proven wrong. Reitman is at his best when he is totally in control. His directions are always a bit more sophisticated and showy than they need to be. Oscar likes that.

3. Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis – It doesn’t matter what the movie is. The Coens make a movie, and they get put in this category. They are our generation’s Billy Wilder.

4. Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave – The Academy would love to recognize a director like McQueen with an Oscar nom. He would be just the third black director nominated in the category, but few of them have the prestige of McQueen with his first two indie hits.

5. Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street – If Marty’s picture is in or around a Best Picture nomination, then he will get nominated here. The trailer just looks too good to be true. Maybe it could turn into his next Casino and just be a more commercial hit, but I am expecting greatness.

Others in contention

6. Peter Landesman – Parkland – The film appears to be a good bet for recognition from the acting branch. Will they really nominate a director whose only other feature was the largely unseen cable-ish drama Trade? Maybe. They have done crazier things before, like snubbing Ben Affleck.

7. Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher – He was left off for Moneyball, and in some ways this could be another sports movie. Those are an easy sell for BP, but for directors, it is trickier. This could be more of a Raging Bull-type seriousness if the subject matter is any indication.

8. Ben Stiller – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty – They were not ready to nominate Affleck in this category even though his film dominated all of awards season. What about Stiller? His most Oscar-friendly movie was… Reality Bites? Or Tropic Thunder? Unless his film really is as good as it could be, then he will get left off.

9. Lee Daniels – The Butler – He is a previous nominee, which could help his cause. Weisntein will keep his name and film in our memories until nomination morning.

10. John Lee Hancock – Saving Mr. Banks – After The Blind Side, voters may want to recognize him individually. Plus his film has Oscar written all over it. He could be a dark horse for the prize.

11. Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips – He has been nominated once before and all of his films seem to have a signature pace and look. Clever and intense editing is often mistaken for great direction. Lucky for Greengrass, he consistently has both.

12. Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine – He is nominated a lot even when his film is not. I would not be shocked if he somehow sneaks in.

13. Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity – This is our best chance since the Best Picture expansion of having a Director nominated without his film. If the film succeeds, it is all going to be because of Cuaron. He deserves a mention in this category at some point. Why not this year?

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)

1. American Hustle (David O. Russell) – This movie has the trailer, A-list cast, and director to justify the frontrunner status. There are going to be a bunch of voters who think Silver Linings should have won last year, so this film is going to have everyone’s attention.

2. Labor Day (Jason Reitman) – We are still without a trailer. Reitman’s last film was the underwhelming Young Adult, but this is his baby. The last one he wrote and directed was Up in the Air, which by some fluke went winless despite six nominations.

3. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Ben Stiller) – I have never really been as surprised by a trailer as I was by this one. It was sort of on my radar for an acting nom back in March, but the trailer shot it up to a potential frontrunner. It could be our generation’s Forrest Gump.

4. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen) – The Coens are regulars in this category as well as every other one. The more of this film we see and get word of, the more it seems like a BP lock.

5. Foxcatcher (Bennett Miller) – We still need the trailer, but we have gotten a few stills from the movie that look incredible. Miller’s previous two films were nominated here. Look for three straight unless it is a huge letdown.

6. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese) – Scorsese has had four of his last five nominated for all of the important categories. The trailer is hilarious and brilliant. I cannot see this missing out. There is just too much talent involved.

7. The Butler (Lee Daniels) – This is one of the big Weinstein box office surprises. It is little overachieving movies like this that wrap up mass nominations.

8. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen) – McQueen has made two great films in a row. This appears to be his third and definitely his most awards friendly movie. As long as it gets a legitimate box office, it should be in.

9. Parkland (Peter Landesman) – The trailer looks like the JFK version of Bobby, which everyone seemingly has forgotten about. The Golden Globes loved Bobby, but this looks better, even if the cast are not really Oscar regulars.

10. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee) – The trailer made it out to be a bit more Citizen Ruth than I would have expected, but it is McConaughey’s time. He could carry this film into the spotlight and Best Picture lineup if marketed correctly.

 

Others in contention

11. Before Midnight (Richard Linklater) – The early release date may have killed this movie. We will need to see some precursor love like its predecessor had for it to make the final group.

12. Saving Mr. Banks (John Lee Hancock) – It is definitely a Disney movie. It is going to be light, predictable, funny, and beloved by a bunch of gutless, risk-averse Oscar voters.

13. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass) – It has everything that the Academy should love. It appears to be in for a giant box office. Greengrass deserves his first venture into this category.

14. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen) – He has never really been a regular in this category, but the film might once again be his most commercially successful film. Plus it has the mentally unstable lead character that voters love so much.

15. Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler) – The buzz on this film has quieted recently, but Weinstein should reignite the flame in the next couple months with its video release and campaign.

16. Rush (Ron Howard) – This is one of the under-the-radar films in the group. It looks great and it has a dynamic young cast, but no one is really taking it seriously. Peter Morgan and Ron Howard is a killer combo. This could surprise.

17. August: Osage County (John Wells) – I am still not sold on its major Oscar merit, but we will have to see how much they love Streep and if the film is better than Wells’s last film The Company Men.

18. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron) – Science-Fiction is not the easiest sell with the Oscars, especially since it is basically a solo venture for Bullock. Last one of these was Moon, which was ridiculously overlooked everywhere. Clooney and Bullock seems like a can’t-miss, though.

19.  The Book Thief (Brian Percival) – This could be the next Little Boy, which I hyped up only to not see it ever get released. This actually has an arrival date and a director who worked on Downton Abbey. It is about World War II. Sounds like a potential contender to me...

20. Philomena (Stephen Frears) – It is Oscar-friendly material with British producers and actors. I could see this rising up in the coming months.

21. Nebraska (Alexander Payne) – It may not perform any better than The Straight Story or Harry and Tonto, but with more than five nominees, those could have made the cut too. Payne is recognized often. This film will show us how much they really love him.

There you have it. Comments? Thoughts? Overlooked films? Predictions? Let me know below.

 

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Power Rankings: The Films of Robert Redford

Ever since I saw Quiz Show, my first Robert Redford movie, I have been a fan. Every one of the films that he so carefully chooses to direct has a sense of urgency and painstaking attention to detail. He also lets his actors do their thing. His movies are more realistic than most directors, almost in a Norman Jewison type of way (another one of my favorites). He is not a showy director. He has no real recognizable style or look, which makes his consistent greatness even more astonishing. Within the last few weeks, I have finally completed his directorial filmography, so I thought it would be a good time to rank/rate his films. Plus, today is his birthday. Check it out!

9. The Milagro Beanfield War (1988) **1/2

This is the only one of his films that doesn’t completely work. It is lighter than it should have been. It is essentially a Promised Land-type movie, but without the underlying serious tone throughout the movie. The technical aspects are great, as is the inspirational final act, but overall it falls just short. His sophomore slump did not last long, though. He clearly learned from this misstep, seeing how his peak came with his next three films.

8. The Legend of Bagger Vance (2000) ***

This is exactly the type of movie that makes Redford as great as he is. Under lesser hands, this would have been a corny and sappy sports movie. With the beauty of his direction and the subtlety of the performances, the film becomes a Field of Dreams-level fantasy films with a great emotional impact. It is a beautiful little movie that got an unfair poor reception when it came out.

7. The Company You Keep (2013) ***

This is a totally solid, richly detailed journalism thriller. There are a few points where the film loses its way, but that is the case in every movie of this kind outside of All the President’s Men. It is smart thriller, as well as a very realistic one. The film may not be the deepest or most significant of Redford’s works, but it is an entertaining and intelligent film with one of the most impressive casts assembled in years.

6. Lions for Lambs (2007) ***

I do not know of a single person who appreciated this movie as much as I do, but I really think this is a brilliant movie. Sure, the film had high expectations, but I never understood why everyone was so disappointed. The overly talky style is all that the film promised, and it delivered some of the deepest conversations I have had the pleasure of experiencing in a movie. Redford clearly saw something in the young Andrew Garfield, making his screen debut with arguably his most memorable performance playing opposite Redford himself. The other two sections are not quite as good, but they have their moments. The film is essentially in real time, which only heightens the urgency. This is tense stuff. It is too bad that no one else saw that.

5. Ordinary People (1980) ***1/2, #5 of 1980

 

Robert Redford’s critical favorite is one of the more interesting Oscar Best Picture winners. It was Redford’s directorial debut. It is also a domestic family drama, not exactly the most Oscar-friendly material. The way the film has gained its reputation is through its expert storytelling. Every one of the characters is completely fleshed-out and authentic. The movie has a deep and impactful final act. There really are not too many movies out there quite like this. It is a case of a talented actor who was clearly paying close attention to his directors and using the best parts of each of them in his mini-masterpiece debut.

4. The Horse Whisperer (1998) ***1/2

This is certainly Redford’s most surprising movie. It is here where I realized that he may be the best working director at pulling greatness out of younger actors. Scarlett Johansson gives her best work ever in this film. The movie is a big, long, gorgeous western of sorts that has a very strong emotional impact as well as eloquent style. It is his most family-friendly movie, and arguably his most widely appealing. Each time I revisit this movie, I just sit there in awe of the landscapes and in the raw beauty and emotional resonance of a film by a director fully in his element.

3. The Conspirator (2011) ***1/2

I get it: there have been countless films made about Lincoln and his death. However, this has got to be one of the most intriguing takes on the period that I have come across. The film is certainly a political movie, but it is also a To Kill a Mockingbird- type courageous courtroom drama. It has a dynamite cast and a razor sharp script. The artistic and technical aspects of the film are as good as any Redford has done. The film plays like a thriller, but it actually has a very human drama at its core. It is a blistering experience and probably the most haunting film of Redford’s canon.

2. Quiz Show (1994) ****, #5 of 1994

This is undoubtedly the best script that Redford has had the pleasure of working with. The film is one of those films in the category of The Truman Show where it has a plot clearly made for the movies, but underneath it all there is a message about celebrity and the deception of the entertainment fields. The movie flies by in one of the most low-key thrillers in the past couple decades. It is probably Redford’s most impressive direction and best film, but there is one movie that holds a special place in my heart…

1. A River Runs Through It (1992) ****, #2 of 1992, #79 on Top 100

This is Robert Redford’s masterwork. It is one of the most nostalgic movies ever made. It is one of the most beautiful and unique movies made about teenagers. It has a few shots that will be forever engrained in my head. The score is fantastic. The performances are subtle and true. The direction is the most assured and professional that Redford ever accomplished. There is nothing like this movie anywhere. It is inspiring, sensitive, richly detailed, and always deep and cautiously devastating. It is one of the best films of the 90s and the main reason why Redford is one of my favorite directors.

 

Thoughts? Comments? Anyone else a big fan of his directions? Is he the best actor-turned-director? Who else is excited for his next film, A Walk in the Woods, written by Michael Arndt? Sounds like a winner to me! Hit me up in the comments.

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2013 Oscar Predictions: August

Since my last attempt at predictions, two of the major contenders for the top prize have gotten pushed back until 2013. The first, The Gangster Squad, supposedly got the boot because of some scene where they shoot up a theater. Just really bad timing, I guess. Not too different from The Watch being delayed and getting a new title for something that has nothing to do with the movie. The second one, The Great Gatsby, makes no sense, especially with its new home being in July. I don’t get it, but whatever. That makes the impossible task of predicting this subpar year slightly easier. Here it goes:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Lincoln - John Logan, Paul Webb, Tony Kushner – This still has to be the frontrunner for the screenplay prize. The contenders are dwindling.

2. Argo - Chris Terrio – The movie is steadily gaining buzz, and the screenplay will likely be the star of the film.

3. Life of Pi - David Magee – The material here seems very light and Oscar-friendly. It will likely be in the Best Picture field, so a screenplay nomination is assumed.

4. Silver Linings Playbook - David O. Russell – The trailer is lacking in areas, but the movie has a dynamite cast and a director that the Academy finally embraced. I would look for this to make a play in several categories.

5. Anna Karenina - Tom Stoppard – The trailer was popular enough, and Stoppard is an Oscar winner. If this does not flop like so many costume dramas have done recently, this will be our fifth nominee.

Others in contention

6. Beasts of the Southern Wild- Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlan – The movie was a festival hit and a modest success at the box office. Critics loved it, so if it is as popular as some people are saying, it could easily slide into this category.

7. Les Miserables - William Nicholson – Screenplays based on musicals normally aren’t nominated, but there really isn’t much competition. This could be a default nominee.

8. Great Expectations - David Nicholls – This could be a solid screenplay, but the story has been done so many times. Maybe Mike Newell’s version will be better.

9. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Guillermo Del Toro – The movie is one of the year’s most anticipated, so if it lives up to the hype, expect another dozen nominations for Jackson’s beginning to another trilogy with the same characters… yawn…

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. The Master - Paul Thomas Anderson – The trailers have been outstanding, and he should have won a couple times already. This could be the film to beat overall.

2. Hyde Park on Hudson - Richard Nelson – The screenplay seems quite good, and the actors obviously bring their game. This could be the little film like The Artist, The King’s Speech, or Slumdog that just sneaks up on everyone and that everyone underestimates right up until it takes home all the major Oscars.

3. Django Unchained - Quentin Tarantino – This seems to be the one film that has sustained anticipation and is the one sure-fire hit in the whole scenario.

4. Zero Dark Thirty - Mark Boal – No one really knows much about this movie, and with the way the awards seasons have gone the past few years, that is the best thing that they could ask for.

5. Love - Michael Haneke – Another Cannes winner for Haneke, but this one seems to be his real Oscar movie. Expect this to be treated like A Separation or even Pan’s Labyrinthif it is a hit at the box office.

 

Others in contention

6. Moonrise Kingdom - Wes Anderson – The film was a pretty solid hit at the box office, but it is a really quirky story. Anderson is not normally beloved by the Academy, but this one could be different.

7. Rust & Bone - Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, Craig Davidson – This movie sounds incredible, and early word on it is no different. Audiard is a genius, and this is probably his most accessible film to date.

8. The Sessions - Ben Lewin – The film sounds pretty odd, but there is always an indie wildcard in there.

9. Seven Psychopaths - Martin McDonagh – This crime story could be a big box office film, and the last film by McDonagh (In Bruges) secured a spot in a competitive screenplay category back in ’08.

10. Inside Llewyn Davis - Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – The Coens are always in contention, but this seems slightly different for them. It may not get released this year, but if it does, expect some precursors to cement its place in this category.

11. Imogene - Michelle Morgan – This could be the women’s sleeper film in the category.

12. Song for Marion - Paul Andrew Williams – There needs to be a British film making noise each year, and this could be that hit overseas that converts to American audiences seamlessly.

13. To the Wonder - Terrence Malick – I feel like a moron every time I predict a Malick film to get released in any given year. This could win it all, or it could be released in 2 years. It says “completed” and set to play at festivals, but I wouldn’t put it past Malick to toy with it again for several months and delay until late 2013.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Amy Adams - The Master – Adams has been a frequent nominee since her first mention in 2005, and this promises to be a great role for her. PTA gets the best out of all of his actors.

2. Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables– If her part is big enough, her nomination is obvious. She is probably the odds-on favorite right now, but I put her just behind the more likable Adams.

3. Olivia Williams - Hyde Park on Hudson – The movie looks like an actor’s film. It really depends on screentime, but I can see them all getting in.

4. Olivia Colman - Hyde Park on Hudson – If the love is as big for this movie as I am predicting, Colman can easily get a fair share of votes and get swept in. This would be like the Queen Latifah nom for Chicago.

5. Vanessa Redgrave - Song for Marion – Every year it seems like her performances are hyped and beloved, but she is always on the outside looking in. Weinstein will not let that happen to her with this film.

Others in contention

6. Sally Field - Lincoln – She is a two-time winner who has not been nominated in almost 30 years. She has the crucial wife role in the story. She could easily get nominated, but a third win for her would be a bit ridiculous.

7. Maggie Gyllenhaal - Won’t Back Down – This is going to be the very safe audience winner of the year, and Gyllenhaal looks like she could coast to another nom if it is as popular as it could be.

8. Kerry Washington - Django Unchained – Not too sure what her role is going to entail, and Tarantino has only had one actress nominated for his films, but you can never count out his crazy female roles.

9. Barbra Streisand - The Guilt Trip – This movie seems very silly, but this cast wouldn’t be signed on for just some piece of trash. Her last acting nom was in 1974. With plenty of veterans in the field, they could choose one of their most versatile ones (2 song, 2 acting, 1 producing nom).

10. Jessica Chastain - Lawless– She has about 4 films that she could secure a nom for, but this one seems to be her most interesting. Her abrupt rise to fame has been insane.

11. Gemma Arterton - Song For Marion – The Weinstein backing can make anything happen. If she has some classic scenes with Redgrave, Stamp, and the rest of the cast, her nom will become more and more likely.

12. Maggie Smith - Quartet – The film is full of beloved veterans, Smith being perhaps the star of the ensemble piece. Under the direction of Dustin Hoffman, she could deliver another incredibly memorable and likable character.

13. Kristen Stewart - On the Road– I don’t want to count her out yet, but the film is in limbo and her personal problems are probably casting an ever-darkening shadow on her chances.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained – His role looks like an instant-classic. I can’t wait to finally see him gather some long-deserved awards.

2. Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master – What else is there to say about Hoffman? He will coast to a nomination, and with the right campaign, he could easily take the award from DiCaprio.

3. Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild – If the film can sustain momentum until awards season, then Henry will likely receive a John Hawkes-style “surprise” nomination.

4. Joel Edgerton - Zero Dark Thirty – I obviously have no clue what his character will be like, but with The Great Gatsby getting delayed, this film could finally be the one that singles out one of the best under-the-radar actors working today.

5. Samuel West - Hyde Park on Hudson – This would be a pretty random person getting nominated, but him playing royalty in a film filled with talent and great characters, he has to be on the shortlist.

Others in contention

6. Bradley Cooper - The Place Beyond the Pines – Playing opposite Gosling will make for his best work of his young and blossoming career. Derek Cianfrance directing him is so intriguing.

7. William H. Macy - The Sessions– Playing a priest in this indie darling, Macy will likely be a scene-stealer. Hard to believe he only has one nom.

8. Russell Crowe - Les Miserables– He is going to have the scenes to really shine, and if he can nail the singing…actually no, Depp got a nom for a musical. Singing probably doesn’t matter.

9. Aaron Johnson - Anna Karenina– He is a rising star, and he looked brilliant in that trailer. This would be a very cool addition to the race.

10. Michael Caine - The Dark Knight Rises – If they want to throw a bone to the overrated superhero picture, I would hope that they award Caine, the best part of the film.

11. Paul Giamatti - Cosmopolis– Cronenberg directing Giamatti. I cannot wait.

12. Robert De Niro - The Silver Linings Playbook – This promises to be his best character in several years and his best shot at a nom since…Casino? It has been a while.

13. Brian Cranston - Argo – Riding his Emmy train to an Oscar nomination is not out of the question. The Academy does like Affleck-directed performances, so he has as good of a shot as anyone.

14. David Strathairn - Lincoln– He is a well-respected actor, and with this material, he could be the subtle character out of the cast of boisterous actors that gets singled out.

15. John Goodman - Inside Llewyn Davis – Goodman is having a bit of a comeback, and his best work is always in Coen films.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Keira Knightley - Anna Karenina – She is still my frontrunner, and until the release of the film proves otherwise, I can’t really see that changing.

2. Marion Cotillard - Rust & Bone – Early word on the film is terrific, and Cotillard looks like she really brings it. It is too early for her to get a second win, but a nom here is very likely.

3. Laura Linney - Hyde Park on Hudson – Her part looks like one that she will nail. Even though she isn’t one of our most popular actresses, the Academy loves her.

4. Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild – She could be one of our youngest nominees ever. She certainly deserves it, and if the film can sustain its buzz, it will be a no-brainer.

5. Meryl Streep - Hope Springs– I would be a fool to count her out. The film got solid marks from critics, so this is basically a slam dunk, right?

Others in contention

6. Helen Hunt - The Sessions– I am not sure how many noms this film will get, but it seems like it will be contending in almost all of them. Hunt needs a validation nom at some point.

7. Emmanuelle Riva - Love – The leads in the film got high praise at Cannes. I wouldn’t be surprised if they both wind up getting in. Or maybe just Riva, much like Julie Christie in Away from Her.

8. Viola Davis - Won’t Back Down– This could be another shot at Davis trying to weep her way to an Oscar. The material is so Oscar-friendly, that I almost feel like she should be higher on this list.

9. Naomi Watts - The Impossible– I feel like I am trying to convince myself of her candidacy every year. This sounds like pure Oscar stuff, though.

10. Abbie Cornish - The Girl– The material sounds a bit like Frozen River, but maybe that’s a good thing. Cornish will get her share of nominations in her career, but she should have at least two already.

11. Dakota Fanning - Now Is Good– This sounds very My Sister’s Keeper-ish, but it ain’t Nicholas Sparks. This could finally be Fanning’s day in the sun.

12. Julianne Moore - What Maisie Knew – At some point she will win. This is probably not that performance, but these relationship dramas are always contenders.

13. Ziyi Zhang - The Grandmasters– I want this to be a big hit, and if it is, Zhang is probably going to stand the best chance at a nom. She has been in and around the race several times.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Bill Murray - Hype Park on Hudson – He is always giving brilliant performances, yet he only has that one nom for which many people thought he should have won. He looks like he nails the part.

2. Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln– I find it almost impossible to think he won’t get nominated, but three Oscar wins for him would be quite a feat. I don’t know if the Academy is ready for him to join that class.

3. Ryan Gosling - The Place Beyond the Pines – With his other major film getting delayed, his chances of getting an unfortunate vote split are gone. If Cooper is in and around a nom, then Gosling will almost certainly be invited.

4. Christopher Plummer - Barrymore– Playing legendary actor John Barrymore seems like a can’t-miss for the recent Oscar winner. He needs a leading nom now, I suppose.

5. Joaquin Phoenix - The Master– This would be a great story for him to have made it all the way back after his falling out a few years ago. Every PTA film has career-best work from its lead.

Others in contention

6. Suraj Sharma - Life of Pi– This seems like an Oscar hit, and the leads (no matter how unknown) of Oscar films have had very clean track records recently.

7. John Hawkes - The Sessions– Not sure how beloved this film will be, but Hawkes has had quite a rise the past few years. This leading nom would officially make him an actor to be reckoned with.

8. Clint Eastwood - Trouble with the Curve – The Academy has definitely cooled off from the Clint love, but this role seems so perfect for him.

9. Jean-Louis Trintignant - Love– If one of the leads gets nominated, I assume the second would be swept in as well.

10. Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables– He doesn’t deserve to be an Oscar nominee, but his performance here will likely have the wow moments that they are looking for.

11. Jamie Foxx - Django Unchained– Tarantino’s leads aren’t normally singled out, but this role just seems to be so flawlessly-written that it may be impossible to ignore.

12. Terence Stamp - Song for Marion – The role seems tailor-made for an actor like Stamp to get revalidated.

13. Tom Hardy - Lawless – I am unsure if this is really an Oscar film, but Hardy looks incredible in it. He will be a frequent contender every year now.

14. Richard Gere - Arbitrage - The film is steadily gaining buzz, and with Gere never being nominated, this could be the type of role that they finally wanted to see him play.

15. Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook – If the film is loved and he doesn’t live up to the hype with his other film, then perhaps his leading role opposite his idol De Niro could be the spot for him to snag a nomination.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master– Had No Country not been such a unanimous hit, then PTA would have won already. This film is his best attempt at giving the Academy what they want.

2. Tom Hooper - Les Miserables– His recent win for the ridiculously popular The King’s Speech got people paying attention to him, and this film is just Oscar stuff, pure and simple.

3. Roger Michell - Hype Park on Hudson – The film is likely going to be a smash hit with the actors, so the director of those performances will likely be rewarded as well.

4. Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained– With all the crazy hype, I just can’t see this failing to the point that QT can’t get a nomination here.

5. Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty – Even if the film is not completely embraced, she will likely direct it furiously and receive a Paul Greengrass-type nomination.

Others in contention

6. Steven Spielberg - Lincoln– I would have never thought that they would have nominated War Horse and not Spielberg, but they did. Maybe they have had enough of him like they have with Clint…

7. Michael Haneke - Love – If he gets a nom here, then this could be one of the films to beat. I can’t see it happening, but it really feels like an Oscar darling.

8. Ben Lewin - The Sessions – This will be an uphill climb for him, unless his film is the unanimous indie darling with the precursors, in which case this nomination will come quite easily.

9. Ang Lee - Life of Pi – I don’t know exactly what to expect from this, but Lee has had a decent track record with the Academy.

10. Joe Wright - Anna Karenina– He still hasn’t gotten that first nom, and he probably will still have to wait, unless this just sweeps everyone off their feet.

11. Joel Coen, Ethan Coen - Inside Llewyn Davis – They are always contenders in this category.

12. Peter Jackson - The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey – This may be an obvious nom if the film gets the kind of reviews of its predecessors.

13. Benh Zietlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild – He could get swept in with his film with the right kind of campaign.

14. Ben Affleck - Argo – Definitely his most ambitious film yet, and maybe the one that finally gets him his deserved directing props.

15. Jacques Audiard - Rust & Bone – He is the type of director who could get a lone director nom, but the film promises to be much more of a threat.

16. Terrence Malick - To the Wonder – I don’t know what the status of the film is, but he is going to be formidable competition until he wins.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 8 will get nominated)

1. The Master – This seems like the kind of film that will secure the first place votes to take the top prize. Given a few of the previous winners, box office is not an issue in this category.

2. Hyde Park on Hudson – It is the British movie with the character drama that the Academy has fallen for recently. Look for this to make a serious push at winning.

3. Les Miserables – The musical will be a welcome addition to the race. The last one nominated in this category was Chicago.

4. Django Unchained – With the kind of box office it will receive and with all of QT’s fans, this will be an almost no-brainer nom.

5. Lincoln – It has everything going for it, other than being the odds-on favorite. The backlash has killed the last dozen of those, it seems.

6. Life of Pi – The sentimental content will likely warrant a pretty clear nomination in this category.

7. Zero Dark Thirty – This is all on potential, but I see this being one of the most talked about movies of the season.

8. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey – The franchise has its fans, probably enough to grab the 5% of the votes needed.

9. Love – Foreign films have not broken through in quite some time, but if any has a chance this year, it will be Haneke’s film.

10. Anna Karenina – I feel like this could be Wright’s most popular film yet. If Knightley really is looking like she will win, I expect a nomination here.

Others in contention

11. The Sessions – With these smaller films, it is all about how it translates to the public. It needs a great box office to be considered.

12. Argo – I can see this getting one of the spots if it nails the reviews. The box office will be there, but this needs to be Affleck’s most acclaimed film to date.

13. To the Wonder – Even if it is not a big hit, there will still be tons of voters wanting Malick to get invited again and again.

14. Beasts of the Southern Wild– I am not buying that it can get in this category, but everyone else seems to be. It was a fine film, and if it can sustain that all the way until February, I will be pleasantly surprised.

15. Inside Llewyn Davis – The Coens can do no wrong in the eyes of the Academy, so this has to be one of the more obvious contenders.

16. The Avengers – With The Dark Knight Rises getting mixed reactions from everywhere, I wouldn’t count out this box office megahit with the reviews to take it all the way. I doubt it will happen, but you honestly never know. We are talking about an organization that called The Blind Side one of the year’s ten best, so any film that made some money is still within the realm of possibility…

 

What do you all think? Agree/Disagree with anything? What are your predictions? Did I space on any big contenders? Let me know in the comments or hit us up on Facebook.

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