2013-2014 College Football Bowl Preview

There are some extremely interesting matchups this bowl season, the final one of the dreaded BCS era. For each game, I will give a couple brief thoughts, my predicted winner and confidence level (35 is most confident), as well as my interest level on a scale of 1-10. Clearly, some of the games hold more weight than others, but bowls are bowls. I would watch every one of them if possible. I love this time of year. Read up!

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL – December 21, 11:00AM ESPN

Colorado State vs Washington State (-4)

Breakdown: Yes, the Cougars are bowl eligible for the first time in a decade, but they got one of the weakest matchups we could have asked for. We want Mike Leach in a bout with another riverboat gambler, but instead we get Colorado State, who lost their season opener to a terrible Colorado team. How many tickets to this game can possibly be sold in New Mexico?  This promises to be a high scoring affair, though, but only if CSU star tailback Kapri Bibbs is healthy.

Winner (Confidence): Colorado State (8)

Interest Level: 3/10

ROYAL PURPLE LAS VEGAS BOWL – December 21, 12:30PM ABC

USC (-6) vs Fresno State

Breakdown: This is a very cool matchup of Golden State teams. The Trojans have had a well documented coaching debacle throughout the season, ending with their interim coach quitting before the bowl game. How inspired will this team be? Will Marqise Lee use this favorable matchup as one final showcase for the NFL scouts? Fresno State scores in bunches, and their QB Derek Carr is right there with the elite NFL prospects as well. This game will have about a billion points scored, but I feel like the Fresno has a bit more motivation in this, missing the BCS due to one loss…in which they scored 52 points on the road.

Winner (Confidence): Fresno State (10)

Interest Level: 7.5/10

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL – December 21, 2:30PM ESPN

Buffalo (-1.5) vs San Diego State

Breakdown: Buffalo was had one of the most impressive turnarounds outside of Auburn in the nation. In 2011, they were an uncompetitive 3-9. Last year, 4-8. Now, they are 8-4 and nearly won their division. They get rewarded with…the Potato Bowl. San Diego State had a pretty good season, but it was really up-and-down. They get blown out by Eastern Illinois, beat Boise State, play close against awful New Mexico State and Hawaii. I suspect that the Aztecs, despite playing in familiar surroundings, will get blown off the blown off the ball by the Buffalo o-line and Branden Oliver will have a monster game.

Winner (Confidence): Buffalo (22)

Interest Level: 1.5/10

R&L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL – December 21, 6:00PM ESPN

Tulane (PK) vs Louisiana-Lafayette

Breakdown: I am intrigued by this game for really no other reason than we get to see in-state rivals playing in their home state. Ordinarily, when a team plays near home, the outcome of the bowl game is somewhat predetermined. Here, we get a very intriguing matchup where motivation will be the deciding factor. I think that Tulane (2-10 last year), who was clearly in the better conference, will want to show the nation that their hot start was not a fluke. It will be a nail-biter, but I got the Green Wave.

Winner (Confidence): Tulane (17)

Interest Level: 6/10

BEEF ‘O’ BRADY’S BOWL – December 23, 11:00AM ESPN

Ohio vs East Carolina (-14)

Breakdown: Here, we have a couple non-AQ usual suspects battling it out in Florida. Ohio had a ton of returning talent, but they had a letdown year. East Carolina has a high-powered offense and an underrated defense that held Virginia Tech to just 15 points. I expect Shane Carden and Justin Hardy to hook up for a trio of touchdowns and roll all over that putrid Bobcat defense. If Beau Blankenship can get his act together and run the ball effectively for Ohio, however, this game could remain close.

Winner (Confidence): East Carolina (26)

Interest Level: 4/10

SHERATON HAWAII BOWL – December 24, 5:00PM ESPN

Oregon State (-3) vs Boise State

Breakdown: This game has no shortage of intrigue. We have the Beavers, who opened the year with a loss to FCS Eastern Washington, but then went on somewhat of a roll behind Biletnikoff winner Brandin Cooks and the arm of Sean Mannion. Boise State had an average year by their standards, mainly because their defense could not stop anyone. They also lost their coach, so how prepared will this team be without the best bowl game coach in the nation? They are very familiar with playing in Hawaii, but in bowl games, the stars show up. Cooks will go off like usual, but look for RBs Storm Woods and Terron Ward to put up the big numbers against that weak Boise front. This will be high scoring and close. I can’t wait to see this.

Winner (Confidence): Oregon State (14)

Interest Level: 9/10

LITTLE CAESARS BOWL – December 26, 3:00PM ESPN

Pittsburgh vs Bowling Green (-6)

Breakdown: This is a nice matchup. Bowling Green won the MAC in a shocking blowout win over Northern Illinois, but when they played BCS competition, they lost 63-30. This is not a great Pittsburgh team, but if I have learned anything watching bowl games, dominate defensive linemen take over bowls. Aaron Donald, the unbelievable DT for the Panthers, won the Outland, Bednarik, Nagurski, and Lombardi awards. He will take over this game and prevent that powerful Falcon offense from really getting going. BG also has 5^thbest scoring defense in the nation, so expect an ugly game in Detroit.

Winner (Confidence): Pittsburgh (21)

Interest Level: 7/10

SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL – December 26, 6:30PM ESPN

Utah State vs Northern Illinois (-1.5)

Breakdown: Here, we have a classic matchup of strength vs strength. Northern Illinois has one of the most amazing offenses in the nation, and Utah State has one of the stingiest defenses out there. The Huskies are coming off an ugly loss in the MAC Championship Game, and Utah State nearly took down Fresno State for the MWC title. If Chuckie Keeton were healthy for Utah State, then this would be no contest. Since his injury, the Aggies have looked human, but like last year, in which they dominated their bowl game, they are just a better overall team than their opponent. This is bound to be a close game, but Utah State is playing closer to home, and Lynch already got his Heisman invite. I got the Aggies in a highly entertaining game that may well be the best of all the non-BCS games.

Winner (Confidence): Utah State (19)

Interest Level: 9/10

MILITARY BOWL – December 27, 11:30AM ESPN

Marshall (-3) vs Maryland

Breakdown: Marshall is probably the better team in this game, but Maryland is playing basically at home. The Terrapins started the season looking like a contender, but then fell off after that 63-0 loss to Florida State. Marshall finished winning 5 of their last 6, and they do have Rakeem Kato, one of the coolest QBs in the country. This is a decent matchup, but I feel like the team playing at home is going to be the deciding factor. The Marshall passing game will get slowed down a bit by the weather as well. Expect a low scoring affair.

Winner (Confidence): Maryland (5)

Interest Level: 5/10

TEXAS BOWL – December 27, 3:00PM ESPN

Syracuse vs Minnesota (-4.5)

Breakdown: Syracuse has a history of screwing up people’s seasons, but this Minnesota team is special. They are not the most talented team, but their defense is dominant. Their offense gets it done, especially since David Cobb’s emergence as their go-to tailback. The game being played in Texas is random, so there is no impact of weather or potential home crowd. The Gophers are the better team, and they will win this game.

Winner (Confidence): Minnesota (25)

Interest Level: 4.5/10

FIGHT HUNGER BOWL – December 27, 6:30PM ESPN

Washington (-3) vs BYU

Breakdown: These teams have played each other quite a bit over the years, but this matchup is different. Coach Sarkisian left for USC, so he doesn’t get to coach against his alma mater. This BYU team has a power running game, and they have hung with teams and been a much better Independent than I expected. Washington has more talent and are being coached by legendary Husky Marques Tuiasosopo for the game. Expect that offense to get going quick, and watch Bishop Sankey have one more huge game before jumping to the NFL. Watch out for Cougars QB Taysom Hill, who could very well shred the stout Husky D. This will be a fantastic game to watch in San Francisco, with the two schools being basically the same distance from the game. It is the perfect neutral site.

Winner (Confidence): Washington (4)

Interest Level: 8/10

NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL – December 28, 9:00AM ESPN

Rutgers vs Notre Dame (-15.5)

Breakdown: I am going against my rule of always picking the home state team. Rutgers is simply not a good team, and this Notre Dame squad has beaten a few of the best teams in the country. There is also a huge contingent of Irish fans in New York, so Rutgers will likely not outdraw ND in ticket sales. The Irish defense will destroy that streaky Rutgers offense and win this game comfortably.

Winner (Confidence): Notre Dame (29)

Interest Level: 4/10

BELK BOWL – December 28, 12:20PM ESPN

Cincinnati vs North Carolina (-3)

Breakdown: I have no idea what to expect from these teams. Cincinnati nearly won the AAC after losing their starting QB and losing to South Florida, one of the worst teams in the nation. North Carolina started 1-5 and finished 5-1. UNC lost their season finale to Duke, while Cincinnati lost their chance at the conference title in the last week. UNC probably has more upside, but I really have no idea what this game will look like. It is a coin flip if there ever was one.

Winner (Confidence): Cincinnati (1)

Interest Level: 3.5/10

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL – December 28, 3:45PM ESPN

Miami vs Louisville (-3)

Breakdown: This is another case where I had to go against my home state rule. Louisville has appeared bored since they lost to UCF, but they haven’t lost since. Miami has appeared pedestrian at best since getting obliterated by Florida State. The Cardinal are simply a better team, and if Teddy Bridgewater wants to go pro, he can have a big game against this defense. I expect him to.

Winner (Confidence): Louisville (12)

Interest Level: 7/10

BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL – December 28, 7:15PM ESPN

Michigan vs Kansas State (-3.5)

Breakdown: This is a great matchup for such a lower-level bowl game. The teams appear to be mirrors of each other. The Wildcats had a commendable season after their Heisman finalist Colin Klein graduated. Michigan looked terrific early on, but then they stumbled and hit rock bottom midseason. They are coming in with some confidence after their effort against Ohio State. They are certainly more explosive than K-State. There will be no defense played in this game, but Michigan has more weapons.

Winner (Confidence): Michigan (16)

Interest Level: 7.5/10

BELL HELICOPTER ARMED FORCES BOWL – December 30, 8:45AM ESPN

Middle Tennessee State vs Navy (-6)

Breakdown: This is just one of those games where there are very few pulls. The quarterbacks are dynamic, especially Keenan Reynolds, who set the single season QB rushing TD record. Navy just never really has great bowl games. Logan Kilgore is a fine player as well, but his senior year has been as great as we would have expected going in. Unless Reynolds goes off, this is bound to be the most forgettable bowl game of the season.

Winner (Confidence): Middle Tennessee State (7)

Interest Level: 2/10

FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL – December 30, 12:15PM ESPN

Mississippi (-3) vs Georgia Tech

Breakdown: Here, we get a cool matchup of unique offenses. Ole Miss has had a Jekyll and Hyde-type of season, but last year’s bowl game showed that they can be tough to prepare for. Georgia Tech ended the year on somewhat of a roll when Vad Lee and David Sims really started playing well. The Yellow Jackets have a better defense, so the option team will probably have more success on the ground than the straight spread team. That is only a guess, though. This is a really interesting game.

Winner (Confidence): Georgia Tech (3)

Interest Level: 7.5/10

VALERO ALAMO BOWL – December 30, 3:45PM ESPN

Texas vs Oregon (-14)

Breakdown: Here, we have two teams that do not want to be where they are at. Oregon was not pleased with the Rose Bowl…so how does the Alamo Bowl taste? DAT sucks, bro. Texas was an in-state rivalry game away from the Fiesta Bowl, but here they sit in an ugly game that they have little chance of really competing in. The only thing going for them is that they are playing in Texas. With Mack Brown on his way out, the team may be uninspired. They could get a bit of “win one for the Gipper” as a sendoff to their National Title winning coach, but I doubt it. This one could get ugly very quick, since Texas has one of the worst run defenses in the nation.

Winner (Confidence): Oregon (27)

Interest Level: 6/10

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY HOLIDAY BOWL – December 30, 7:15PM ESPN

Texas Tech vs Arizona State (-14)

Breakdown: This is a very strange game that I cannot get a read on. I figured that the Sun Devils would beat Stanford at home for the Pac-12 title, but they got steamrolled. ASU has looked amazing at times this year, but with Marion Grice banged up, the team is more one-dimensional. Texas Tech started off hot this year before basically imploding. The team seems like it could come up with some exotic offensive game plan with all that time to prepare. I am not confident in this one. There will definitely be a bunch of points down there in San Diego.

Winner (Confidence): Arizona State (9)

Interest Level: 8/10

ADVOCARE V100 BOWL – December 31, 9:30AM ESPN

Boston College vs Arizona (-7.5)

Breakdown: In this game, we have an awesome matchup of the two best running backs in the nation. Ka’Deem Carey is electric for the Wildcats and dominated the Pac-12 for the second consecutive year. Andre Williams, obviously, had one of the elite seasons for a running back in college football history. He is the only weapon that BC has on offense, and he still rolled up over 2000 yards, most of which were in the second half of the year. Big time players show up in big games. Look for Williams to put a stamp on his historic season and lead the Eagles to victory behind a 200+ yard game.

Winner (Confidence): Boston College (13)

Interest Level: 8.5/10

HYUNDAI SUN BOWL – December 31, 11:00AM CBS

Virginia Tech vs UCLA (-7)

Breakdown: UCLA is a troubling team. When they are at their peak, they might be the best team in the country. They have been up-and-down, though. This is a favorable matchup. The Bruins might not be able to really open it up against a pretty strong Hokies defense, but they should be able to shut down Logan Thomas and company without too much trouble. Watch this game to see a whole lot of Myles Jack, one of the most versatile and exciting players in college football. He will be a Heisman frontrunner heading into next season.

Winner (Confidence): UCLA (32)

Interest Level: 7/10

AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL – December 31, 1:00PM ESPN

Mississippi State (-7) vs Rice

Breakdown: Rice is coming into the game hot after taking apart a really good Marshall team for the C-USA title. Mississippi State really has not recorded a quality win. Their best win may have been the ugly Egg Bowl victory over Ole Miss. The only reason Bulldogs are favored is because they are in the SEC. Rice is a better team. They showed they can play with the big boys when they put 31 on Texas A&M to start the year.

Winner (Confidence): Rice (20)

Interest Level: 6/10

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL – December 31, 5:00PM ESPN

Duke vs Texas A&M (-12)

Breakdown: Here, we have a mismatch. We saw what Duke is really like when they play outside of the soft ACC. They are an intriguing team just because they won 10 games and that never happens. The Aggies are not coming in felling good, necessarily, after getting dismantled by Missouri. This is, in all likelihood, Johnny Manziel’s last college game. He will leave his mark. This should get out of hand pretty quick, but it will probably be entertaining.

Winner (Confidence): Texas A&M (33)

Interest Level: 5/10

TAXSLAYER.COM GATOR BOWL – JANUARY 1, 9:00AM ESPN2

Nebraska vs Georgia (-9)

Breakdown: It is always unfortunate when we get a rematch of the previous year’s bowl season. Last year, Nebraska and Georgia came in healthy, and we got a shootout. This year, both teams’ quarterbacks are out for the year and are a shell of their former selves. Georgia has more talent and is deeper, so they should not have too many problems beating the Huskers and whoever they start at QB. Ameer Abdullah will have a day for the Big Red, but it will not be nearly enough to keep up with the Bulldogs.

Winner (Confidence): Georgia (30)

Interest Level: 5/10

HEART OF DALLAS BOWL – JANUARY 1, 9:00AM ESPNU

UNLV vs North Texas (-6.5)

Breakdown: This is the biggest mismatch of the bowl season. UNLV played in a weak Mountain West and got destroyed by every good team on their schedule. They finished the season on a good note, but they are going to Texas to play a feisty team from Texas. The Mean Green have a top 10 defense and a very balanced offense. They should be able to force UNLV into passing situations, which is not good news for the Rebels. North Texas scores on defense consistently. This is an absolute no-brainer. NOTE: I always seem to miss my top confidence game, but I can’t get this one wrong...right?

Winner (Confidence): North Texas (35)

Interest Level: 4/10

CAPITAL ONE BOWL – JANUARY 1, 10:00AM ABC

Wisconsin (PK) vs South Carolina

Breakdown: I really like this matchup. I can already picture how this game is going to go. Wisconsin will outplay South Carolina in almost every way, but South Carolina will somehow have more points at the end of the game. Sound familiar? It should, if you have seen any Cocks game during the Connor Shaw era. The running game for the Badgers is seemingly unstoppable when they commit to it (which didn’t happen in their embarrassing season-ending loss to Penn State). South Carolina has a good running game of its own, led by 1000 yard rusher Mike Davis. This will likely be a very entertaining game, one of the best on New Year’s Day.

Winner (Confidence): South Carolina (28)

Interest Level: 9/10

OUTBACK BOWL – JANUARY 1, 10:00AM ESPN

Iowa vs LSU (-7.5)

Breakdown: This game has my attention for some reason. LSU was a really interesting team for most of the season. Heading into their bowl without senior QB Zach Mettenberger is troubling, but it levels the playing field with ground-and-pound Iowa. The Hawkeyes have had a solid season and a nice turnaround from last year. LSU has NFL players all over its offense, but its defense is rebuilding. If Iowa can control the clock, which it does better than almost any other team, it has a tremendous chance of winning. I just seem too much firepower for the Bayou Bengals.

Winner (Confidence): LSU (18)

Interest Level: 8/10

ROSE BOWL GAME – JANUARY 1, 2:00PM ESPN

Michigan State vs Stanford (-4.5)

Breakdown: This is the best game of the season. We have two teams that are committed to being NFL-style teams. They have stout defenses, especially the nation’s best one in Michigan State. Stanford has had a couple cases where they were not able to really control the line of scrimmage, which is what Sparty does game in and game out. I like their chances of winning, but it is so hard to predict a Cardinal loss. I really do not want to pick a side here. I just want to enjoy what will likely be the roughest and most beautiful display of pure football this season.

Winner (Confidence): Michigan State (2)

Interest Level: 10/10

TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL – JANUARY 1, 5:30PM ESPN

UCF vs Baylor (-17)

Breakdown: I like this game in theory. UCF has had itself an incredible debut BCS conference season. That is without question. They also had some very close calls with some awful teams. Baylor, with the exception of a couple games late in the year, could do whatever they wanted on offense. The Bears should be able to score 60 on UCF, who doesn’t have much on the defensive side. They do have an offense of their own, but it will not be enough against a solid Baylor D. I want to watch these offenses, but this game should not be closer than 4 touchdowns.

Winner (Confidence): Baylor (31)

Interest Level: 8/10

ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL – JANUARY 2, 5:30PM ESPN

Oklahoma vs Alabama (-15)

Breakdown: This is one of those games that seem so obvious that I almost picked the other way. These types of games always destroy confidence pickers. Oklahoma has almost nothing on offense. They road one player to a Bedlam victory, a game they had no business winning or even competing in. Alabama is still probably the best team in the country, but how much do they want to play in the Sugar Bowl? They have lost to Utah in a BCS game in the past in which they just didn’t show up. The Crimson Tide are superior in every way, and I just cannot seeing one of college football’s greatest champions AJ McCarron going out with a loss.

Winner (Confidence): Alabama (34)

Interest Level: 5/10

AT&T COTTON BOWL – JANUARY 3, 4:30PM FOX

Oklahoma State vs Missouri (-1)

Breakdown: I love this matchup of old Big 12 schools. Missouri got shredded in the SEC Championship game by a creative offense, and that is exactly what Oklahoma State sports. The Pokes have had their troubles with consistency all year. They have more talent than Missouri, but that really doesn’t matter in most bowls. This game is going to be an offensive shootout. I trust Mike Gundy more than Gary Pinkel, plus Missouri’s letdown of missing out on the BCS Championship Game is greater than OK State’s letdown of missing playing UCF in the Fiesta.

Winner (Confidence): Oklahoma State (24)

Interest Level: 8.5/10

DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL – JANUARY 3, 5:30PM ESPN

Clemson vs Ohio State (-3)

Breakdown: This is a game that features two teams that cannot feel too good coming in. Everyone had Clemson finally winning another Palmetto Bowl, but they got taken apart again. Ohio State has been exposed defensively each of their last two games. Urban Meyer is typically a fantastic postseason coach, though. Tajh Boyd dominated last season in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against LSU. Both teams should be well prepared and hungry…at least I hope so. I want this to be a great game.

Winner (Confidence): Ohio State (11)

Interest Level: 9/10

BBVA COMPASS BOWL – JANUARY 4, 10:00AM ESPN

Houston vs Vanderbilt (-3)

Breakdown: I do not really know what to say about this game. Houston looked decent until they played the best 3 teams in the AAC, which they lost to in consecutive weeks. Their best game was probably their close loss to either BYU or Louisville. They did stun Rice early in the year. They are capable of playing a good game, especially defensively. Vanderbilt had high hopes, and even though they won 8 games, they were not great. They did not really have any quality wins, unless you count the depleted Georgia team. The Commodores will win because they have some real talent on offense and a great coach, but I do not really need to see this game. It is bound to be pretty bad.

Winner (Confidence): Vanderbilt (23)

Interest Level: 1/10

GODADDY BOWL – JANUARY 5, 6:00PM ESPN

Arkansas State vs Ball State (-9)

Breakdown: Games like this one are hard to predict. Ball State should be the clear favorite after taking their conference, but this game is the day before the championship game. Arkansas State lost another coach to a better job, which usually plays in the favor of the team with the vacated coaching spot. I think this will be a close game, but Ball State has too much firepower offensively. The QB-RB-WR combo of Keith Wenning, Jahwan Edwards, and Willie Snead is one of the best in the nation. I expect them to probably win, but I just cannot fully trust the MAC.

Winner (Confidence): Ball State (6)

Interest Level: 4.5/10

VIZIO BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP – JANUARY 6, 5:30PM ESPN

Auburn vs Florida State (-8.5)

Breakdown: Finally we arrive at the one everyone wants to see. We get to see one of the most dominant regular season teams in recent memory against a team of destiny if there ever was one. Auburn’s running game seems impossible to stop, but only if you watched the SEC Championship Game. They had to be far more balanced against Georgia the game before, a game that I still cannot believe they escaped from. The team simply has no defense either. Florida State has yet to really be tested. That is not to say they haven’t played anyone, but they just haven’t played in a close game. So, if this one is looking like a nail-biter, I am not really confident in freshman Heisman winner Jameis Winston to be able to score when he needs a score. I do trust that NFL defense, however. I expect a pretty good game with a big stop or turnover late forced by the ‘Noles. FSU takes the title 30-23.

Winner (Confidence): Florida State (15)

Interest Level: 10/10

Thoughts? Predictions? Your confidence picks? Hit me up in the comments!

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NFL Playoff Power Rankings: Week 15

            Around 10:00pm Sunday night, I texted Todd that between the Patriots, Ravens, Matt Prater, Antonio Brown, LeSean McCoy and the snow, last Sunday may have been the greatest day in NFL regular season history (minus an injuryor two).  It was a perfect day to stay inside during the snowstorm covering most of the nation.  It was a great way to conclude the fantasy football regular season too, unless you were a ReggieBush owner.  Let’s take a moment to forget the atrocities of the BCSand college football culturein general and remember what real football looks like.

AFC Playoffs

1. Denver Broncos (11-2; projected 14-2): It’s going to be hard bidding farewell to the 2007 Patriots’ records of points scored and passing touchdowns.  But it’s even harder to argue this team doesn’t deserve it.  Denver may have had its best game of the season Sunday, with two 75+ yard rushers, a near-flawless performance by Peyton Manning (who completed 39 passes), a 64-yard field goal, and zero turnovers for the first time since Week 4.  The combined record of their remaining opponents is 12-27.  The one lingering concern: Wes Welker, who suffered his second concussion of the season on Sunday.  But with the injury to Gronkowski and doubts about the Seahawks playing 3,000 miles away from the 12^th Man, the Broncos have to be the odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl XLVIII.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4; projected 11-5): The Bengals travel to Pittsburgh next Sunday night, where a win can move them considerably closer to wrapping up the division.  The real question is whether Cincinnati can get some help in the AFC East to secure the two seed over New England.  The Bengals have now scored 41+ points in each of their last three home games, and believe it or not, Andy Dalton has more touchdowns than Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson.  But with all four losses coming on the road, homefield advantage and a bye could be a huge boost.  They can’t beat the Broncos in Denver though.

3. New England Patriots (10-3; projected 11-5): I give up. What more can you say about this team?  According to Pro Football Database, they have 23 injured players.  In their last four games, they’ve been outscored in the first half by a margin of 57-10.  You could make a convincing case that this team should be 12-1 or 7-6, depending on your perspective.  The Gronkowski injury is understandably devastating, but frankly, Pats fans have been preparing for this all season.  If Vereen, Edelman and Amendola can stay healthy, the offense should be OK (remember that they were 5-1 without Gronk).  Their next two games – on the road against Miami and Baltimore – are tough, but the best news for New England is that there is apparently no lead over Tom Brady any opponent should feel comfortable with.

4. Indianapolis Colts (8-5; projected 9-7): The Colts have the worst record of any AFC division leader, but somehow became the first team in the league to officially clinch its division.  They have one of the most dynamic young quarterbacks in all of football, don’t turn the ball over, and will likely get a home playoff game against Alex Smith.  That’s the glass half-full.  On the other side is a team that can’t block, can’t defend the run, hasn’t beat a team from outside its crappy division since October 20, and like the Patriots, has been terrible in the first half of late (outscored 48-15 in their last three games, with zero TDs).  After Sunday’s loss to the Bengals, Indianapolis has been outscored on the season (313 to 316) and other than giveaways, ranks in the bottom half of the league in almost every meaningful statistic.  Remaining home games against the Texans and Jaguars are no longer a given.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (10-3; projected 12-4): Last week, I told everyone to stop freaking out about the Chiefs’ three-game losing streak, and the matchup with the Redskins proved the best antidote to those concerns.  Kansas City now has to start thinking about going on the road – two of its final three are in Oakland and San Diego, and a home game for the playoffs seems out of reach at this point.  Still, the Chiefs lead the league in turnover margin and have scored 28+ points in their last three games (in their prior 10 games, they reached 28 points only once).  Key to their success will be the eventual return of Justin Houston, who could provide the defensive spark for an intriguing potential playoff run beginning in Indianapolis, who the Ravens first played in January last season.

6. Baltimore Ravens (7-6; projected 9-7): Uh oh.  This looks familiar.  But instead of a 4^th-and-29or Rahim Moore, this time the culprit was the Minnesota Vikings, who gave up 140 yards and three touchdowns in seven plays.  Just how big was that win?  A loss would have put the Ravens one game back of the Dolphins, with their next three opponents all division leaders.  Instead, the Ravens control their own destiny for the AFC’s sixth wild-card spot, having now won four of its last five games. On the season, Baltimore has allowed three rushing touchdowns.  They still can’t mount a consistent running game, and have technically played the league’s easiest schedule, but what team would want to play these guys in January?

In Contention

Miami Dolphins (7-6; projected 8-8): The Dolphins were also 7-6 in 2009 and 2010 before dropping their last three games.  And while road wins against cold weather teams like the Jets and Steelers are undeniably impressive, Miami still needs a signature win to be taken seriously (other than their fluky two-point OT win over the Bengals).  They will get their opportunity this weekend against the Patriots, who they can still technically overtake in the AFC East should the Gronkowski injury prove as catastrophic as some predict.  Unlikely, but still.  Ryan Tannehill has been impressive though (over 60% completions and 84 QB rating in his last six games), and the Dolphins do finish the year with the Bills and Jets – unlike the Ravens, who conclude with the Patriots and Bengals.

San Diego Chargers (6-7; projected 8-8): Too little, too late?  If San Diego has any chance at the wild card, they must win in Denver Thursday night (intriguingly, the Chargers have won three of its past four and five of its past seven games in Denver).  Should they do that, things could get real interesting, with their final two contests at home against the Raiders and Chiefs.  The Chargers still cannot be trusted in close games (2-6 in games decided by eight points or less) and are fourth-worst in the league at creating turnovers.  But at least they can move the ball downfield, which is more than you can say about the Ravens and Dolphins.

New York Jets (6-7; projected 8-8): Something tells me not to completely count out the Jets and their third-worst offense in football.  Once upon a time, a rookie QB named Mark Sanchez threw for 12 touchdowns in a season (along with 20 interceptions) and the Jets came within a game of the Super Bowl.  Geno Smith’s numbers are eerily similar (9 TDs and 20 Ints), as is the Jets’ potential to screw everything up in the playoff race should they beat the Dolphins in Miami Week 17.  Or maybe I’ve just been burned by this team too many times.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8; projected 6-10): Hey, maybe if they didn’t play football with sidelines.

Playoff Predictions:

New England 27, Baltimore 24

Indianapolis 20, Kansas City 12

Denver 49, Indianapolis 28

Cincinnati 21, New England 18

Denver 34, Cincinnati 16

NFC Playoffs

1. Seattle Seahawks (11-2; projected 13-3): Injuries to K.J. Wright and Max Unger have to be mildly disturbing to Seahawk fans, but the good news is that with a win this week, they can wrap up the NFC’s 1 seed and rest their players the remainder of the regular season.  The 49ers win over Seattle was more symbolic than significant – it didn’t really affect the standings except to illustrate that the Seahawks may be vulnerable to good running games on the road.  By that logic, this limits the teams that can foreseeably beat them to the Broncos and Chiefs . . . in Super Bowl XVIII.

 2. New Orleans Saints (10-3; projected 12-4): The Saints are posers in the way they look unbeatable at home (7-0, 23+ points in each game) and mediocre on the road (3-3, only one 400 yard game).  They absolutely cannot be trusted to go into Seattle and win the NFC Championship.  Still, they are terrific to watch in the confines of the Superdome, treating the much-vaunted Panthers defense like it was a JV squad.  On paper, the Saints are in the top six both in total offense and defense, but other stats (such as only two takeaways through their last six games) show the kind of Jekyll-and-Hyde dynamic that won’t get it done in the playoffs unless your name is the New York Giants.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5; projected 10-6): Amid the insanity of last Sunday’s games was the stunning development that NICK FOLES THREW AN INTERCEPTION!  The Eagles probably can’t beat the Seahawks with their 3^rd worst defense in the league, but they are 5-1 on the road and currently have the NFC’s top rated passer and leading runningback.  Despite the Cowboys’ loss, the Eagles’ ultimate fate may still come down to Sunday night Week 17 in Dallas, but after seeing what Josh McCown did to that secondary, Chip Kelly shouldn’t lose too much sleep.

4. Chicago Bears (7-6; projected 9-7): The Bears are back!  In eclipsing the 40 point mark for the third time this season, Marc Trestman and his west coast offense (and utter lack of defense) have given Chicago its quirkiest season since 1995.  The Josh McCown-Jay Cutler debate may have staunch defenders on both sides (Cutler wasn’t exactly putting up bad numbers before his injury), but it’s clear that what McCown is doing (13 TDs, 1 Int) is something special and vaguely Kurt Warner-esque. Like a 1961 Cheval Blanc, he's peaking at the right time. A trip to Philadelphia and a home finale against the Packers still loom large. 

5. Carolina Panthers (9-4; projected 11-5): The Panthers are clearly a talented team that deserves a playoff appearance for the first time since 2008, but like Kansas City, they have a hard time playing from behind.  Cam Newton looked overly cautious Sunday night in the Superdome, and the Panthers seemed to lack the intensity needed to go on the road and win a big game – something that as a wild card team, they will need to do several times potentially.  Fortunately, Geno Smith comes to Charlotte this Sunday, leaving many wondering if it is possible for a team to finish a game with negative points scored.

6. San Francisco 49ers (9-4; projected 11-5): It’s hard to believe, but the 49ers not only have a difficult path to postseason berth, but will need to root for the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in two weeks for any form of breathing room (the season finale at Arizona should be a doozy). The running game came back to life on Sunday, with Frank Gore putting the team on his back and getting a much-needed win over Seattle – even if the win really was just to save face after their Week 2 annihilation.  Michael Crabtree getting healthier each week is a good sign for San Francisco’s passing attack, which ranks dead last in football.  It’s odd to think of both Super Bowl teams from last year being 6 seeds – but it’s not surprising that no one wants to play them.

In Contention

Arizona Cardinals (8-5; projected 10-6): The Cardinals are hoping to avoid joining the ranks of the 2010 Giants, 2010 Buccaneers, and 2008 Patriotsas recent teams eclipsing 10 wins, but somehow missing the postseason.  The bad news is that Tyrann Mathieu will miss the rest of the season, but the good news is that they look better each week.  Carson Palmer completed 84 percent of his passing Sunday – including 12 for 12 on passes targeting Larry Fitzgerald – and John Abraham and Karlos Dansby have provided a fearsome veteran linebacking combination. Next Sunday’s game at Tennessee is a virtual must-win before they go to Seattle and host the 49ers in Phoenix (where they are 6-1) to close out the season.

Detroit Lions (7-6; projected 8-8): A month ago, the Lions stood alone atop the ranks of the NFC North with Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers out indefinitely.  Today, the Lions are a team in the midst of a freefall – incapable of holding on to the ball, stopping opponents, or mounting a consistent running game.  Like the Cowboys, the talent is there – meaning they can never be truly counted out – but the execution simply is not.  A season sweep of the Bears still means Detroit controls its own destiny, but I’m not sure why anyone would put their confidence in this team at the moment.

Green Bay Packers (6-6-1; projected 8-7-1): As long as the Packers never have to play in November ever again, they should be fine.  Aaron Rodgers’ return should ignite an offense that’s been left for dead by bad quarterbacking (no, as it turns out, Matt Flynn isn’t all that good) and a pretty lousy secondary.  They need help, but don’t think they’ve forgotten about GoldenGate and would be one of the few teams that would love a trip to Seattle in January. 

Dallas Cowboys (7-6; projected 9-7): In Las Vegas, the Cowboys are 50-1 to win the Super Bowl.  I’d still put $10 on them.  But then again, I don’t typically leave Vegas with very much money in hand.

Playoff Predictions:

San Francisco 24, Philadelphia 21

Carolina 31, Chicago 24

Seattle 19, San Francisco 10

New Orleans 35, Carolina 24

Seattle 38, New Orleans 13

SUPER BOWL XLVIII PREDICTION:

Denver 41, Seattle 32

Thoughts? Disagreements? Sick of sad Patriots pictures? Excited for the epic fantasy football playoff matchup between me and Terry (aka Frass Canyon vs. Engine 5)? Let me know below.

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SNL 39.7 Review - Josh Hutcherson, Haim

When young celebrities get an opportunity to host Saturday Night Live, it is always interesting to see what kind of actor they really are.  Josh Hutcherson was just one of these cases.  Would he be able to hold his own, or would he have to be carried through the episode?  Not only did Hutcherson hold his own, but he ended up carrying everyone else in what was probably the worst episode of the season so far.  Hutcherson was great, but the writing staff really gave him nothing to work with.  From start to finish, it was just a poor effort.  Let's look at it.

Cold Opening

To lead off the show, the writers decided to attack another contemporary topic much like they did the time before with Rob Ford.  However, this week did not go over quite as well.  They started with their great impression of Piers Morgan from Taran Killam, but the topic of George Zimmerman, the man connected to the tragedy of Trayvon Martin, was not funny.  I found it tasteless and ill-spirited.  There's something about kicking a guy when he's down that doesn't strike me as funny.  The Rob Ford sketch the week before was a little better because, honestly, it's one of those "can't make it up" scenarios.  The plight of George Zimmerman I find more depressing than anything.  Why make fun of it?  On top of all that, can we get a better impression than Men's Warehouse's George Zimmer than Beck Bennett repeating "I guarantee it" over and over again.  It did not get the show off to a good start.

Monologue

With Josh Hutcherson hosting, you knew The Hunger Games had to come up at some point.  The monologue was a good way to get it out of the way so they could say they did it and move on.  This is exactly what they did.  However, the way they did it ended up with the cast hijacking Josh's monologue in a "cast member fight to the death" scenario.  It wasn't very funny, but rarely are these pop culture references a huge hit.

Weekend Update

It seems the Weekend Update segments have been shrinking over the last couple episodes.  At one point, we were up to three solid guest appearances on the segment.  We only had one this time (at least one worth speaking of).  Aidy Bryant is always someone worth watching when she gets a chance to shine as she did here as the "Worst Lady on an Airplane."  It wasn't a great new character, but like I said, Aidy owned it and made it one of the few highlights from the episode.

Best Sketch

This was a hard one to determine.  The one I wanted to go with here was a creative sketch where the entirety of Josh Hutcherson's lines were from the hit 80's classic "Your Love" as he tried to woo his crush.  However, because of the lovely copyright laws it will never be seen online.  So instead I'll name my favorite from this episode one that has really grown on me since I saw it.  It documents the work of a subway dance troop named Matchbox 3 that specializes in crowded subways.  The highlight of the troop is Lil' Peanut (Hutcherson).  Enjoy the show!  Enjoy the show!

Worst Sketch

There were so many odd sketches in this episode that just didn't work for me.  The worst of these weird sketches was about a top economist who just happened to be stuck in a baby's body.  Yep, a man in a suit acting like a baby.  I really like Beck Bennett being in the cast, but he really had some big duds this time around with this being the biggest of them all.  This was just stupid.

Dark Horse Sketch

One bit of silliness that happened to be a lot of fun was one of the later sketches where silliness is supposed to reign.  It surrounded an animal hospital that was very particular about their forms after each pet they received turned up dead.  Josh Hutcherson really shined in this one along with several others.  That kid can really act.

Grade

Like I have said, Josh Hutcherson showed that he is worth inviting back.  He is quite the talented young actor that took a lot of risks for a first-time hosts that paid off.  The problem was nothing else worked.  The sketches were bad, the writing was weird, and some of the performances were dull.  Hopefully, they weeded out all the duds leading up to their big run towards Christmas.  In fact, the best part of the episode was finding out the next three hosts were Paul Rudd, John Goodman, and concluding with Jimmy Fallon hosting the Christmas episode with Justin Timberlake as the musical guest (which basically makes a co-host scenario of two of the best they could get).  Hopefully, the writers do a better job putting together good material for this all-star lineup.

***D***

Watch full episode here:

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NFL Playoff Power Rankings: Week 14

            It’s December, which can only mean one thing: The NFL playoffs are looming. Beginning this week, each Tuesday I will be looking at the playoff picture with my projected playoff seedings.  This is entertaining because it’s fun to write and even more fun to look back at it one year from now and laugh at how horribly wrong I was (especially when I was reluctant to correctly pick the Patriots to win the Super Bowl).

AFC Playoffs

1. Denver Broncos (10-2; projected 13-3): They’re still the team to beat, even though they rank 4^th worst in football in giveaways (25).  Sunday’s game in Kansas City was the 6^thtime this season the Broncos have had a negative turnover ratio in a game.  Denver’s defenders will point to the fact that they are nevertheless 4-2 in these games, and haven’t scored under 27 points in a game all season.  Some observers have speculated that the Chiefs never really had a chance on Sunday because they cannot score more than 30 points in a game; but this reminds me of the faulty logic in 2007 that said the only way to beat the Patriots would have been to score 40 or 50 points.  I think there’s a defense out there can stop them.  And like the 2007 Giants, it could be in one of these scrappy, under-the-radar teams with an erratic quarterback (hello, Cincinnati Bengals?)

2. New England Patriots (9-3; projected 12-4): Sunday’s win against the 2-10 Texans was a decidedly mixed bag.  Houston went into the game much better than their record (having lost their last five games by a combined 19 points) and New England fans knew the potential for a trap game.  The Pats persevered, but in the process made Ben Tate look like Jim Brown, Case Keenum look like . . . a better Matt Schaub, and reminded New England fans everywhere that Kyle Arrington simply cannot defend in the secondary.  The Pats rush defense now ranks 2^ndworst in football.  Fortunately, the Patriots get Cleveland at home next week and have a good shot at clinching the AFC East for the 5^th straight season.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (8-4; projected 11-5): Guess who joined Peyton Manning as the only quarterbacks to begin their careers with three straight 3,000 yard seasons?  If you guessed Andy Dalton, pat yourself on the back.  Quietly, the Bengals are looking pretty good right now.  They haven’t lost a regulation game since September, and are undefeated at home (three of their final four games are in Cincinnati).  The Chargers aren’t exactly a superpower, but beating them in San Diego while grinding out 164 yards on the ground was a great sign moving forward.  Next week’s home matchup vs. Indianapolis will be a good indicator which team clinches the 3 seed.

4. Indianapolis Colts (8-4; projected 10-6): So I guess we’ve learned that this team can play reasonably well so long as it doesn’t involve any bottomfeeders from the NFC West.  Sunday’s big win over Tennessee gives them a comfortable three-game lead in the AFC South (and season sweep of the Titans).  In his last four games, Andrew Luck has a QB rating of 66.9 . . . but on the positive side, he’s has an almost identical rushing total to Trent Richardson (one has a 6.3 yards per carry average, the other has a 2.8.  You can guess which one is which).  The Colts haven’t won consecutive games since Week 5, so a victory in Cincinnati next Sunday would go a long way in reminding fans that they are still the team that once beat the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (9-3; projected 11-5): Believe it or not, the Chiefs haven’t won a game in 30 days.  At this point, their most impressive win was Week 2 against Dallas when they won by a point.  Sunday’s game was frustrating, not only because Kansas City blew a 21-7 lead at home, but because they actually looked pretty good for stretches of the game.  Their nine wins aren’t a fluke, as some have suggested; the problem is that the Justin Houston injury has wreaked havoc on a once-elite defense, which has given up over 427 yards in each of its last four games.  It seems unlikely that the Chiefs will finish 0-7 after their 9-0 start, but it’s not impossible either, with three out of the next four games on the road.  In all likelihood, the Chiefs are little more than a desirable Wild Card round consolation prize to the winner of next week’s Indy-Cincinnati game

6. Baltimore Ravens (6-6; projected 8-8): Baltimore and Miami have the inside track for the AFC’s six seed, but you have to give the temporary nod to the Ravens as a result of their victory over the Dolphins in Week 5 (the Ravens’ only road win all season).  Yes, they have six losses, but none have been by more than six points.  They looked good against the Steelers on Thanksgiving, but have the Lions, Patriots, and Bengals in upcoming games.  Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce need to get healthy quickly; they average a combined 2.8 yards per carry, and the Ravens as a team have the NFL’s 2^nd worst rushing attack.  But with a healthy Jacoby Jones (and no coach on thesidelineto thwart kickoff returns), this team feels a little scary once again.

In Contention

Miami Dolphins (6-6; projected 8-8): Not sure if they have enough talent to win a playoff game, but wins over the Colts and Bengals could be a fascinating wrinkle come January (Ryan Tannehill has a higher QB rating than Andrew Luck and Joe Flacco).  A slightly scary statistic: Miami is 5-1 in games where its opponent scored 20 points or fewer.  But don’t the Dolphins seem to do this a lot?  A good start to the season and then a collapse down the stretch?  Wins in upcoming weeks against the Steelers and Patriots would be huge.

San Diego Chargers (5-7; projected 7-9): They get the Giants and Raiders at home . . . but also the Broncos in Denver and the Chiefs in Week 17.  They play competitively in most games and can move the ball down the field, but can’t really stop other teams and are terrible in the red zone.  A 2-2 split seems destined.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7; projected 7-9): The Stealers certainly out of contention yet, with three upcoming home games and a road trip in Green Bay.  Technically, they’ve still won three of their last four, but the Ravens loss made them fall from serious contention.  Still, the passing game has been fine, but the AFC playoff picture may be too deep to keep them from watching from the sidelinein January, no matter how hard they try to push forward. 

New York Jets (5-7; projected 2-14): No.

Buffalo Bills (4-8; projected 6-10: Prior to the loss to Atlanta in Toronto, the Bills’ remaining schedule was intriguing: Three games versus the porous Florida teams, and a possibly meaningless Week 17 game in Foxboro.  But then they lost to a team which hadn’t won a road game since December 22, 2012.  Whoops.

Playoff Predictions:

Baltimore 24, Cincinnati 17

Indianapolis 19, Kansas City 13

New England 35, Indianapolis 21

Denver 27, Baltimore 13

New England 31, Denver 28 (OT)

NFC Playoffs

1. Seattle Seahawks (11-1; projected 14-2): The 27-point demolishing of the Saints was just what the doctor ordered for Seattle, who may have still had skeptics after the Rams and Buccaneers games.  The only real test for the remainder of the regular season is next week in San Francisco, but with their three-game division lead and their Week 2 26-point home win over the 49ers, the game really doesn’t matter that much.  They travel to the Meadowlands in Week 15, where they can get acquainted with the field conditions as they prepare for a hopeful return trip in February.

2. Carolina Panthers (9-3; projected 12-4): The Panthers haven’t lost since October 6, and haven’t lost at home since Week 1.  They travel to New Orleans next week, but even if they lose, the remainder of their schedule is more favorable than the Saints’.  Cam Newton has 181 rushing yards in his last three games (on only 19 attempts) and Mike Tolbert and Jonathan Stewart are picking up the pieces until DeAngelo Williams returns from his quadriceps injury.  On the defensive side, they haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 10 games, lead the league in fewest points allowed, and lead the NFC in sacks.  This is an outstanding team.  The Seahawks can’t punch their Super Bowl tickets quite yet.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (7-5; projected 10-6): 19 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and one 7 touchdown game.  Nick Foles is doing his best Peyton Manning imitation (he actually has a better QB rating than him) and the Eagles were 4-0 in November after his return.  But for all the attention Foles is deservedly receiving, the running game has stepped up too, now ranking 2^nd in the league in total rushing yards.  They will have the inside track on the NFC’s 3 seed should they beat the Lions in Philadelphia this weekend, and the Week 17 rematch with the Cowboys looms large.  Remember that they are 5-1 on the road, too.  People are talking about them, yes, but the talk needs to be more serious.

4. Detroit Lions (7-5; projected 9-7): The Lions beat up Matt Flynn and a depleted Packers team on Thanksgiving, but still had four turnovers, most of them stupid.  In fact, Detroit became the first team in 12 years to win a game by 30+ points with four turnovers. They now have 12 turnovers in their last three games.  It’s obvious they have talent, but it’s their season sweep over the Bears (combined with Aaron Rodgers’ injury) that still somehow make them favorites to win the NFC North.  Detroit is 6-0 when they rush for over 110 yards, but doing that on the road in Seattle or Carolina seems unlikely.  Still, I can’t think of any secondary that would savor a matchup with Calvin Johnson.

5. New Orleans Saints (9-3; projected 11-5): Remember when the Saints demolished the Cowboys and had 40 first downs?  It now seems like a long time ago.  When New Orleans won the Super Bowl, they did it with a combination of an excellent running game by committee and the ability to create a ton of turnovers.  They haven’t done either lately, and have only forced two takeaways in their last five games.  It’s clear they are incapable of resolving their road woes, and although they have two more home games, their two remaining away games are against the formidable Panthers and Rams.  Carolina is a team built to stop the Saints, so these final few weeks will tell us a lot.

6. San Francisco 49ers (8-4; projected 11-5): An NFC West three-peat may be out of the cards for the 49ers at this point, but a Wild Card trip to Dallas or Philadelphia doesn’t really scare this team.  Colin Kaepernick hasn’t looked more comfortable in the pocket all season than in the 49ers’ last two games, and Michael Crabtree’s return adds a level of explosiveness they’ve lacked most of the year (they’re still in the NFL’s bottom five in total offense).  This team is confident and getting hot at the right time – expect a dogfight this week against the Seahawks.  In the past eight seasons, two 6 seeds were able to run the tables on the road and win the Super Bowl.  Just sayin’.

In Contention

Dallas Cowboys (7-5; projected 9-7): The worst two words in a Cowboy fan’s lexion are “Happy December.”  The defense is still atrocious statistically, but Dallas was able to annihilate Oakland’s formidable running game on Thanksgiving.  They also looked impressive in overcoming an early 14-point deficit.  We all know the familiar story – they’ll look great one week, and terrible the next.  But if I hate the prospect of the Seahawks reaching the Super Bowl (which I do), this would be one of the two or three NFC teams I’d pick to give them a tough fight at Qwest Field.  The remainder of the battle is uphill, but it’s hard to count them out at this point with a 4-0 NFC East record.

Arizona Cardinals (7-5; projected 9-7): If the Cardinals were in the NFC, they would be in a superb position to clinch a playoff berth; but in the stacked NFC, even a winning record leaves them on the outside looking in.  The Cardinals are 0-4 when they allow 100 or more yards on the ground, so upcoming matchups with the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers are not exactly ideal.  Without a healthy Andre Ellington, Arizona’s playoff chances go from about 2 percent to 0 percent.

Chicago Bears (6-6; projected 7-9): Josh McCown has been impressive to this point (9 TDs, 1 Int) and Alshon Jeffery has been surreal, but the defense has been terrible, and with tough upcoming matchups with Dallas and Philadelphia on the horizon, the Bears’ chances seem slim.  The return of Jay Cutler does not exactly inspire hope.

Playoff Predictions:

San Francisco 20, Philadelphia 16

Detroit 42, New Orleans 39

Seattle 27, San Francisco 10

Carolina 24, Detroit 9

Seattle 29, Carolina 20

SUPER BOWL XLVIII PREDICTION:

New England 33, Seattle 30

 

            Thoughts?  Disagreements?  Do you agree with me that the Seahawks will stumbleat some point like they always do?  Write below!

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Week 14 College Football Recap: Rankings, Heisman, BCS Projections

I love college football. That Iron Bowl was maybe the best regular season college football game I have ever seen. The twists, momentum shifts, huge plays, top-level talent playing at their best, the insane unexpected ending…it was simply college football bliss. Under normal circumstances, “The Game” between Michigan and Ohio State, coming down to a 2-point conversion attempt for the win would have taken the cake, but the SEC won yesterday. It provided a huge shakeup in the national landscape and provides a chance for the BCS to leave us one last parting gift by screwing it up once again. Let’s just hope we don’t give them that opportunity. Check out my recap below:

This will be my final weekly recap, since there are very few games next week. I will do a bowl preview when the games are announced, as well as a postseason recap following the BCS Championship, though.

Top 25 Poll

Others receiving votes: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Texas A&M, USC, Utah State

Dropped from the rankings: Texas A&M (21), USC (23)

25 (25). Washington (8-4) – They survived the Apple Cup, one of the rare times that the favorite in the game actually imposes their will. They are still one of the scariest teams in the nation. They will be a mismatch for whoever they get in their bowl game.

24 (24). Oklahoma (9-2) – IDLE. Next week: at Oklahoma State.

23 (NR). Texas (8-3) – Their Thanksgiving Day game went about as well as expected. I miss the yearly matchup between the Longhorns and Aggies on that day, though.

22 (NR). Marshall (9-3) – The Thundering Herd have one of the best QBs in the nation, and they have quietly put together a very nice season. If they get a cool bowl matchup against an SEC team or something, then watch out. This team can really score.

21 (19). LSU (9-3) – LSU makes no sense. They look like a championship contender, and then they almost lose to a winless Arkansas team. Gotta love rivalries…

20 (22). Duke (10-2) – The Blue Devils have completed their best regular season probably ever, clinching their division and setting up an amazingly intriguing match with #1 Florida State next week for the ACC Title.

19 (12). Fresno State (11-1) – It is not every day that you put up 41 in the first half and still lose. That just proved that their defense is just as bad as Northern Illinois’s. San Jose State had been struggling heading into that game too. Gotta love rivalries…

18 (9). Wisconsin (9-3) – The Badgers were on a roll, and then they somehow drop their season finale at home to Penn State...that same Penn State that could not score on half of the Big Ten teams. Did they expose something, or was it just a really off game? I can’t tell either.

17 (16). Louisville (10-1) – IDLE. Next week: at Cincinnati.

16 (15). UCF (10-1) – UCF escaped with another narrow AAC win against a weak opponent. They clinched the conference, though. They are going to the BCS in their first year in an AQ conference.

15 (17). Northern Illinois (12-0) – Jordan Lynch and company are the most intriguing team in the nation. They can’t play any defense, but it is slightly better than last year. Plus, Lynch is having maybe the most impressive statistical season for any dual threat QB in college football history.

14 (20). UCLA (9-3) – Aside from Florida State, I do not think a team passes the eye test any easier than UCLA. When they are playing at their best, they simply are the best team in the nation. They are just way too inconsistent.

13 (5). Clemson (10-2) – Clemson did their thing again. They had a chance for something great, and they laid an egg. Go figure.

12 (18). South Carolina (10-2) – I move them up and down drastically each and every week. I still don’t know what to do with them. I mean, they lost to Tennessee…TENNESSEE!!! But they have some amazing wins. They are just confusing.

11 (11). Oregon (10-2) – The Ducks somehow got out of the Civil War alive, despite the best Beavers effort all year and injuries all over. When they are motivated, they can still be the best team out there.

10 (13). Arizona State (10-2) – The Sun Devils put a whipping on their in-state rival, which is always a game that tends to surprise everyone. This team is scary.

9 (10). Stanford (10-2) – The Cardinal took out Notre Dame, which looking at their resume, appears to be a really nice win. They already had their spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game wrapped up, though.

8 (8). Baylor (10-1) – Baylor appeared to be sleepwalking after their loss to Oklahoma State. That TCU team is not good, and they almost lost. The Bears still have a real chance at the BCS too.

7 (14). Michigan State (11-1) – Sparty completed an improbable and very impressive regular season, despite not having played Wisconsin or Ohio State. This team has shades of 2007 Kansas in those terms.

6 (7). Missouri (11-1) – The Tigers are having one of their best seasons in a long time, and they are potentially one win away from playing for a national championship. That is just one year after joining “the best conference in the country”.

5 (4). Oklahoma State (10-1) – IDLE. Next week: vs Oklahoma.

4 (2). Alabama (11-1) – That has got to be the strangest ending I have ever seen. Put that game on a neutral site, and it probably would not have been uncompetitive. That is why they play the games, though. They are going to a BCS game for sure.

3 (6). Auburn (11-1) – I feel obligated to put them this high, even though they are not a top 5 team. They struggled to beat 6-6 Washington State at home, they got beat by 14 by LSU, and they had to battle to take out a weak Mississippi State squad. They are playing their best right now, and thanks to some miracle plays the last two games and an absolutely ruckus crowd, they are potentially in position to play for a national title. That is what makes college football great. ZERO conference wins to a national title run. I love it.

2 (3). Ohio State (12-0) – Everyone is going to look at their escape against Michigan as an ugly win, but that rivalry game is just ridiculous. I was impressed by the Buckeyes in that game. They proved finally that they can score when they need to score, and they made the stop when they absolutely needed it. They are championship-caliber.

1 (1). Florida State (12-0) – The Noles had a sort of boring 30 point win against their pathetic in-state rival. They could sleepwalk over 95% of the teams in the nation. It would take one of the all-time upsets to keep them out of the championship game, or an arrest sometime in the next week.

Conference Championship Games Next Weekend

9. MOUNTAIN WEST: Utah State at Fresno State (#19), 7:00PM CBS – This is an intriguing game, but it would be even more so if Utah State was at full strength. They have had a nice season anyway, despite losing their All-Conference QB mid-season and their coach in the offseason. Their defense can slow up Derek Carr just a bit, but not enough. PREDICTION: Fresno State 31-21

8. CONFERENCE USA: Rice vs Marshall (#22) Site TBA via BCS rankings, 8:00AM ESPN2 – This should be a very competitive game. Rice is one of the more battle-tested non-AQ teams out there. They may very well be playing at home in this game too. Look for a bunch of points here. PREDICTION: Rice 42-37

7. MAC: Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois (#15) in Detroit, FRIDAY 5:00PM ESPN2 – The Huskies should be confident going into this game, but this may be their toughest match of the season. They have yet to play each other. PREDICTION: Northern Illinois 38-24

6. ACC: Duke (#20) vs Florida State (#1) in Charlotte, 5:00PM ABC – I would love to pick an upset here, but there is just no chance that Duke can win. They might jump out to an early lead with their guys playing way over their heads, but eventually the talent and strength is going to dominate. PREDICTION: Florida State 56-13

5. BIG 12 (b): Oklahoma (#24) at Oklahoma State (#5), 9:00AM ABC – If Oklahoma State wins, then they take the conference. Last time this scenario went all the way to this game, The Cowboys destroyed the Sooners. Oklahoma is either going to put their in-state rival in the Fiesta Bowl or potentially help their archrival get to the Fiesta Bowl. PREDICTION: Oklahoma 28-27

4. BIG 12 (a): Texas at Baylor (#8), 12:30PM FOX – These aren’t exactly championship games, but they are a nice little mini tournament. Baylor had been looking forward to this game for a potential chance at a national title. Now, it is slightly less important. The teams will know by kickoff whether or not this game is a play-in game for the Fiesta Bowl. PREDICTION: Baylor 31-24

3. PAC-12: Stanford (#9) at Arizona State (#10), 4:45PM ESPN – The first time these teams met, Stanford pretty much dominated. With the way these teams are currently playing, I would love Arizona State’s chances no matter where it is played. They are at home, so it could end up being pretty easy. PREDICTION: Arizona State 35-21

2. BIG Ten: Michigan State (#7) vs Ohio State (#2) in Indianapolis, 5:00PM FOX – Michigan State is coming off their ugliest offensive effort since the first half of the season, and Ohio State is coming off a wild roller coaster against their rival. They are playing probably for a shot at the National Championship, and Sparty is playing for a rare Rose Bowl appearance. This is a must-see game. PREDICTION: Michigan State 24-21

1. SEC: Missouri (#6) vs Auburn (#3) in Atlanta, 1:00PM CBS – This game is going to be a battle. Can Auburn get another miracle? Can Missouri continue their improbable run toward an SEC Title? Both teams are greatly improved on defense and have offenses that are humming at the moment. This is basically a coin flip. PREDICTION: Missouri 27-23

Heisman Trophy Watch

5. Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State – Miller is having a very impressive season, even if he has given up the spotlight to Carlos Hyde recently. He is the heart and soul of that team. He deserves an invite.

4. Andre Williams, RB, Boston College – He got injured in his season finale after finally getting the Heisman hype he deserves. His stats should be enough to secure his status as a finalist.

3. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon – After that comeback win in the Civil War and his perseverance after tough losses, the most dynamic player in the nation has played himself back into the Heisman conversation.

2. Jordan Lynch, QB, Northern Illinois – He could have the best season of all time with a big game in the MAC Championship. He is looking potentially at a 2000-2000 season with 20+ rushing and passing TDs. Sure, he wouldn’t be doing that in any other conference, but what do you want him to do? He deserves this award.

1. Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State – If he wins, cool. He is probably the best player out there. The voters need to decide whether they want to give it to him with the possibility of him getting charged with rape soon after. This is an intriguing race, to say the least.

BCS Projections

Rose Bowl – Arizona State over Michigan State

Orange Bowl – Ohio State over Clemson

Sugar Bowl – Alabama over UCF

Fiesta Bowl – Northern Illinois over Baylor

BCS Championship Game – Florida State over Missouri

There you have it! Thoughts on my rankings? Thoughts on the incredible weekend of rivalry games? BCS predictions? Let me know!

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Nebraska (2013) Review

 

           We see the haggard old man with long unkempt grey hair, walking briskly along the interstate highway outside of Billings, Montana.  He manages to look simultaneously lost and headed toward an imaginary destination of only his knowing – a familiar sight for anyone with exposure to the crippling effects of Alzheimer’s.  A cop sees him and pulls over his car.  He gets out and puts his arm around the man: “Where you headed, buddy?”  The old man replies, “Nebraska,” but doesn’t seem to realize anyone’s there.  He keeps walking.

            By the end of this movie, we will know a great deal more about this man – his past, his family, and his motivations for walking to Nebraska from Montana – and we may even have sympathy for him.  What’s most remarkable about Alexander Payne’s Nebraska is that, despite being the center of the whole movie, this old man, named Woodrow “Woody” Grant, essentially remains a mystery.  Who is this man?  What are the major accomplishments and disappointments of his long life up to this point?  What is he thinking about in those many moments when he stares blankly into space?  Is he still “there,” so to speak?  Some scenes seem to indicate a man handicapped by the debilitating effects of old age and memory loss; but other, more subtle moments show a man who may be content to simply keep his mouth shut.

            We never know the answers to these questions definitively, and that is one of the many things that make Nebraska a great movie.  As a filmmaker, Payne has specialized in characters facing moral dilemmas that are forced to abandon their comfort zones and find themselves while embarking on a journey.  In Nebraska, that character isn’t Woody Grant, who is too distant a character to really demonstrate signs of moral maturation; instead, it is Woody’s youngest son, David, who picks up his old man from the police station and looks on with incredulity as Woody explains that he has a lottery ticket worth $1 million.  Now all he has to do is claim his prize in Lincoln, Nebraska (that should be the first red flag).  David knows two things: First, that his father is unable to drive and can only walk to Lincoln, and second, that no one else in his family – including his mother, Kate (June Squibb), and his older brother, Ross (Bob Odenkirk) – will take him.  David’s moral dilemma: Driving his father to Lincoln knowing full well that the lottery ticket is a sham and that his senile father is pitifully incapable of recognizing this.

            Thus, Nebraska becomes a road movie, but only in the ways that Sideways was a road movie.  The story becomes little more than a platform for smaller scenes and character exchanges which generate much more interest than whether Woody’s lottery ticket turns out to be authentic or not.  Woody and David stop at Mt. Rushmore.  Then, Woody has to be taken to the hospital with a bruise to the forehead.  Then they make an extended stop in Hawthorne, Nebraska, where we learn that Woody and his wife grew up and started their family, until they relocated to Montana when David was about five years old.  They see distant family members for the first time in ages.  They drink.  Kate and Ross visit.  The residents of Hawthorne – most of whom seem to be around Woody’s age – begin to believe that they are in the presence of a millionaire.

            At the center of Nebraska are two remarkable performances by Will Forte, as David, and Bruce Dern, as Woody.  Both are worthy of Oscar consideration.  Forte plays the straight man who is cast with the unenviable task of taking care of his father – a lifetime drunkard with a nagging habit of leaving the room and resuming his roadside trek toward Lincoln – as well as informing enthusiastic family members that, no, sadly the lottery ticket winnings are not real and no, they may not have any of the money for themselves.  Forte wisely avoids making this character a perpetual sadsack (like Miles Raymond) but instead an initially reluctant witness to his father’s shenanigans who realizes that, in spite of his imperfections, his father may not be that bad after all. 

            Dern’s performance is a masterstroke of subtlety and physical expression.  Woody hardly speaks in the film, and when he does, it usually comes in the form of stock one-word responses.  He does not have any great extended speeches about his shortcomings as a father or what he intends to do with the money.  He’s painfully honest, like many elderly people who may have thrown caution to the wind by giving up any “filter” they may have once had (Kate is the same way, and there is a wonderful moment in the film where she lifts her skirt for a long-dead suitor).  Much has been written about the authenticity of Nebraska, which is a euphemism for the prosaic appearances of its actors.  The filmmakers have spared nothing in making Dern look disheveled, hapless and weary to the core.  That Woody commands the viewer’s attention in each frame he is in is a testament to Dern’s nuances and complete embodiment of the role.  It is the best performance of the actor’s 53-year acting career. 

            Many things happen in Nebraska – a great deal of them funny, some of them bittersweet, all of them realistic and interesting.  A good review need not spoil the details of these scenes.  However, it is worth noting the careful way in which the screenplay, by Bob Nelson, contains many deep layers about who Woody Grant really is, but this information is only gradually revealed to David (and the viewer) by characters other than Woody.  The effect is fascinating: We hear a lot about Woody as though he is an omnipresent, offscreen character – not the physical embodiment of the old man we see walking helplessly along the highway.  Is this the inevitable tragedy of old age?  Woody Grant’s cognizance is a mystery, but even more of a mystery is whether even he knows who he once was.  Does he remain silent because of memory loss, or because life’s too short to constantly revisit the wounds (as well as the successes) of the past?  

            If the execution of Nebraska is commendable, than its conception is all the more remarkable.  How in the world was Payne and his producing partners able to pitch this movie, with its 80-year-old protagonist set in one of America’s most unglamorous geographic settings, not to mention being filmed completely in black-and-white and with no A-list actors to speak of?  Have you seen the posterfor this movie?  In this age of stringent market conditions and streamlined test screenings, what audience did they hope to find?  After having seen Nebraska, I think the answer to that question is clear – an audience with a (dare I say old-fashioned?) yearning for sophisticated, yet economical storytelling with witty dialogue and compelling characters (judging by the applause it received at Cannesas well as the arthouse theater I attended, it’s safe to say such audiences still exist).  No explosions, no sex, no CGI.  Not so long ago, a movie like this would find audiences through “word of mouth;” today, movies like this are set aside by producers and audiences in favor of the latest Transformers sequel.

            What Alexander Payne and his cast and crew have done is made a movie that observes its characters deeply, powerfully and above all truthfully.  The ways in which they have managed to make Nebraska equally biting and warm-hearted can only draw comparisons to the wonderful ways Payne effortlessly oscillated between the emotions of glee and sadness in Sideways.  When I saw that film in 2004, I left the theater moved nearly to tears – not because of its sadness, but because of its profound truths about people and their interactions with others.  Nebraska leaves a wonderfully similar taste. 

Rating: 4 stars

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