Week 11 College Football Recap: Rankings, Heisman, BCS Projections

Down goes Oregon! On behalf of all fans of the University of Washington…thank you Stanford! It was an interesting week in college football. The two big games on Thursday night ended up being a total of about 115 minutes of uncompetitive football. Baylor rolled all over the overrated Sooners, and Stanford slugged the hell out of Oregon before nearly letting them take the game over late in the 4^th quarter. You just never know with the Ducks. You cannot give them hope. They are too explosive. The game may have also cost Marcus Mariota the Heisman, given that the national stage spawned the worst game of his 2 year career. See how the rest of the Saturday slate shook out, and check out the updated Heisman and BCS projections at the bottom!

NOTE: Next week, there may not be an article. I will be out of town again. I will be attending the Legends Division showdown between Michigan State and my Nebraska Cornhuskers. There will still be a top 25 added to the site, but if there is an article, it will not be until Tuesday.

Top 25 Poll

Others receiving votes: BYU, Houston, Nebraska, North Texas, Oklahoma, Washington

Dropped from the rankings: Oklahoma (19), Texas Tech (22), Houston (25)

25 (23). LSU (7-3) – They put up a valiant fight in Tuscaloosa. They had the game in their hands, but the inexperience and turnovers cost them. I knew that this was the type of offense that could challenge the Tide, but it just didn’t happen. They should feel encouraged by their performance.

24 (10). Miami (7-2) – I knew all along that this team just was not all that good. Losing to Virginia Tech, who looked horrible the past few weeks, showed that their 7-0 start was a fluke. You can’t just keep riding that Florida win to legitimacy. You know, that awful 4-5 team in the SEC? Yeah, good win…

23 (NR). Texas (7-2) – I don’t know how this team just keeps winning. They got destroyed twice early in the year, but now they are unbeaten in conference, despite never really looking that strong against anyone but Oklahoma. Their veteran leadership is certainly showing up, potentially saving Mack Brown’s job once again.

22 (NR). Ball State (9-1) – IDLE. Next week: at Northern Illinois

21 (NR). Minnesota (8-2) – Is it just me, or did the team get even tougher when Jerry Kill left the team? Clays is a calm assassin on the sideline. This is not the same team that lost twice early in the year. No one will want to see this team down the stretch.

20 (24). Arizona State (7-2) – They survived the trap that everyone saw coming. It took a fourth quarter rally, but they got it done. This could be a Rose Bowl team.

19 (21). Michigan State (8-1) – IDLE. Next week: at Nebraska.

18 (18). UCLA (7-2) – Arizona is one of the tougher places to win in the Pac-12, and they got it done in a shootout. They are still one of the most talented and dangerous teams in the conference.

17 (20). Wisconsin (7-2) – Beating BYU by 10 is an impressive feat. That Cougar team does not lay down for anyone. This running game is scary good, and if not for that strange officiating gaffe against ASU, they COULD be still looking at an outside shot at a BCS Championship berth.

16 (17). Northern Illinois (9-0) – IDLE. Next week: vs Ball State

15 (15). Louisville (8-1) – The Cardinals continue to roll along. Basically every game has the same format and box score. They play a little sluggish early, then force turnovers and pass for a few second half touchdowns, winning by about 21 points. They deserve the ACC next year. They are sleepwalking through the AAC.

14 (13). South Carolina (7-2) – IDLE. Next week: vs Florida.

13 (12). Texas A&M (8-2) – Manziel’s last home game as a college player went about how you could expect it to. It was another high-scoring affair. Manziel threw 5 TDs and 3 INTs. That team’s defense is so bad. I don’t know how they keep getting wins.

12 (16). Oklahoma State (8-1) – It is becoming more clear that losing in West Virginia is not all that detrimental. That team adds something special when they are in front of that Morgantown crowd. The Cowboys still control their destiny in the conference. They are good enough to take down Baylor.

11 (14). UCF (7-1) – Upending Houston on Saturday night all but clinched the AAC for the second best team in Florida. They are a tough team and could very well win whatever BCS game they are put in.

10 (11). Fresno State (9-0) – After a slow start, the offense exploded. They deserve to play in a BCS game. They just need to stay above UCF.

9 (9). Missouri (9-1) – Ask any Big 12 fan (including Mizzou fans) whether the Tigers are a top program. They will all laugh and say NO. This is just proof that the SEC is not great this year. When Missouri can just dominate teams with a freshman at QB, then you know it is a down year.

8 (8). Auburn (9-1) – I don’t quite understand this team, but they have looked impressive recently. Their sole loss was in LSU. They are not good enough to beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, but they could push them a bit.

7 (7). Clemson (8-1) – IDLE. Next week: vs Georgia Tech.

6 (1). Oregon (8-1) – I have never been more confused by a game than a team just pounding and embarrassing the unstoppable Ducks offense. It is clear that Stanford just has their number. They are the only team in the nation that has it.

5 (5). Ohio State (9-0) – IDLE. Next week: at Illinois.

4 (6). Stanford (8-1) – Clearly the loss in Utah is looking like less of a disaster. When they play their game, which they didn’t against the Utes, they cannot be stopped. They are bigger and stronger than, yet still as athletic as, any team in the nation. I want a BCS Championship between Bama and Stanford. It would be an NFL game.

3 (4). Baylor (8-0) – The offense is just ridiculous. They can put up 40 on any team. They need people to lose too, which is unfortunate. If they were called Oklahoma, they would be in position to play for a national title.

2 (3). Florida State (9-0) – Every player on the roster looks like it could play on Sundays. This team is stacked.

1 (2). Alabama (9-0) – There really isn’t much to say. They are the best, most balanced, most physical, most experienced, and best coached team in the nation. It is going to take a perfect storm to beat them.

Top 5 Games for Next Weekend

5. Oklahoma State (#12) at Texas (#23), 12:30PM FOX – This is the battle between teams who want to stay alive in the Big 12. Texas has not lost. Oklahoma State has one loss. It should be a good old-fashioned Texas shootout. PREDICTION: Texas 37-31

4. Stanford (#4) at USC, 5:00PM ESPN – The Trojans have lost just one game since Lane Kiffin was let go. Stanford is coming off the biggest win of the season. Can the Trojans spring the huge upset? PREDICTION: Stanford 31-28

3. Michigan State (#19) at Nebraska, 12:30PM ABC/ESPN2 – For all intensive purposes, this is for the Legends Division and a chance to ruin Ohio State’s BCS chances. Last year was a tough game and comeback win in East Lansing. This year, Sparty comes in hot. This should be quite a game, even if it will probably look pretty ugly. PREDICTION: Nebraska 24-20

2. Ball State at Northern Illinois (#16), WEDNESDAY 5:00PM ESPN2 – This game will likely decide who will win the MAC, and it is a perfect chance to see one of the coolest players in the nation, Jordan Lynch. PREDICTION: Northern Illinois 49-42

1. Houston at Louisville (#15), 4:00PM ESPNU – This is the battle between the second and third best teams in the AAC. We will see which team is more inspired to stay mathematically alive in the conference. Look for some offense in this one. PREDICTION: Louisville 34-28

Heisman Trophy Watch

5. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon – He is going to need a bunch of losses ahead of him, but you can’t just go from odds-on favorite to not in contention, right?

4. AJ McCarron, QB, Alabama – He is beginning to get more and more credit for the dominance by the Tide. He deserves it, too. He has been orchestrating some of the biggest beatdowns of the seasons and putting up NFL-type numbers.

3. Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor – If we go by stats, then he would be the winner. I am beginning to think that with RGIII, Nick Florence, and now Petty that anyone placed in that offense could put up 5000+ yards total offense.

2. Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M – He continues to put up video game numbers and may be the most exciting player we have seen in the game since Reggie Bush. He will get his votes. How much have the voter’s forgotten about the offseason issues?

1. Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State – With Mariota losing, Wisnton takes control. Unless there is some unforeseen disastrous loss, then he will win the Heisman.

BCS Projections

Rose Bowl – Stanford over Ohio State

Orange Bowl – Oregon over Clemson

Sugar Bowl – Fresno State over Missouri

Fiesta Bowl – Baylor over UCF

BCS Championship Game – Florida State over Alabama

What did you think of this weekend? How far should Oregon drop? New Heisman predictions? Let me know below!

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2014 Oscar Predictions: November

With a few of the contenders getting released already and the field narrowing down heading into the December awards season, it seemed like a fitting time to take one more stab at the Oscar predictions before the National Board of Review and Golden Globes show where the movies truly stand with voters. Since my last predictions, it was announced that Best Picture contenders The Monuments Men and Foxcatcher were pushed back to 2014, the latter due to editing issues. It is unfortunate for both, but maybe they can go against history and still contend in 2015. The Wolf of Wall Street was supposedly too long, pushed back to 2014, then compromised and placed on the Oscar-friendly release date of Christmas. I love that. It is by far my most anticipated of the year and an almost certain Oscar favorite. Without further ado, check out how the race is shaping up, and stay tuned for my Golden Globe predictions in the coming weeks!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. 12 Years a Slave – John Ridley – It appears that this movie is heading into awards season as the heavy favorite. Seven of the last eight years, the Best Picture winner also won for its screenplay. The only one that didn’t was a silent movie…

2. Labor Day – Jason Reitman – Reitman is going against type with this movie, and it seems like the sort of drama that would get mentioned here. Reitman is still without a win, despite a few really popular Oscar movies.

3. Before Midnight – Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, Julie Delpy –This nomination is basically guaranteed, but can the third leg of one of the best trilogies ever actually take home the award? It certainly deserves it, but I can’t see it actually winning.

4. Philomena – Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope – This movie seems like the one most likely to get the British vote. It sounds terrific, and early word claims that it is just that. If the performances ring true, then this should secure a nomination here without too much trouble.

5. Blue is the Warmest Color – Abdellatif Kechiche, Ghalia Lacroix –It is the Cannes winner. It is a very female-centric movie. If the Academy can get past the NC-17 label, then this nomination would be a welcome addition and step forward for the old-timers.

Others in contention

6. The Wolf of Wall Street – Terence Winter – The movie looks insane, but how great is the screenplay? I am hoping for the best, but as we saw with The Counselor, a popular writer’s first major screenplay doesn’t always pan out. This seems to be a very solid contender, though.

7. Short Term 12 – Destin Cretton – This movie is sort of a wildcard. There is always an indie that never really got a serious release that pops up in a couple categories. This could be that film.

8. August: Osage County – Tracy Letts – The Oscars are always hesitant to award a script based on a play. This type of performance piece could buck the trend.

9. Captain Phillips – Billy Ray – The movie is going to be a threat in several categories, but the screenplay seems to be pushing it. It was a solid script, but I am not sure if it will get the first place votes.

10. The Book Thief – Michael Petroni – It does not exactly have the pedigree of a contender, but the trailer looks great and certainly Academy-friendly. I would not be surprised if this gets a few mentions.

11. The Spectacular Now – Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber – It will be an uphill climb with Before Midnight probably tapping into the same voter market, but it is one of the finest scripts of the year.

12. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty – Steve Conrad – This film’s buzz is rampant, but the Oscar status is unknown. If it is a Best Picture contender, then Conrad’s script will probably be one of the main reasons.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. American Hustle – Eric Singer – The trailer looks amazing and well-written. The cast are certainly going to be putting Singer’s words to good use. It seems like an obvious frontrunner at this point.

2. Blue Jasmine – Woody Allen – It is Allen’s best screenplay in years. His dramas are usually rewarded with a nomination in this category at least.

3. Inside Llewyn Davis­ – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – The Coens are always getting nominated. The movie is a dark-horse Best Picture contender. I would be shocked if the Coens are not nominated here.

4. Fruitvale Station – Ryan Coogler – The movie has seemed to lose its buzz, but Weinstein will not allow it to completely go by the wayside. If Coogler is mentioned somewhere, it is here. The socially-relevant material is too good to pass up.

5. Prisoners – Aaron Guzikowski – It is a bit like Zodiac in terms of format. It is more conventional, though. It is a star-studded and gritty drama. It is this year’s Flight.

Others in contention

6. Nebraska – Bob Nelson – The movie looks really offbeat and interesting. We will see how Alexander Payne shapes the movie into his own without the writing credit.

7. Her – Spike Jonze – I have yet to get a good read on this movie, but it looks like it could be the next Eternal Sunshine or the next Punch-Drunk Love. Both are excellent, but the former is definitely what Oscar prefers.

8. Lee Daniels’ The Butler – Danny Strong – This is another Weinstein movie that dominated the box office for a solid month. When that happens, it is usually good for its awards chances.

9. Saving Mr. Banks – Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith – It is certainly the family-friendly movie that could either make a huge Oscar splash or be completely written off.

10. Gravity – Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron – The movie is more about experience and visuals rather than screenplay. If the movie is in for major Oscar love, then this nomination will be become more and more likely.

11. Mud – Jeff Nichols – It is one of the best parts of the first half of the year, but just not enough people saw it. If the movie were to defy the odds and get mentioned somewhere, then this is where it will be. It still has the highest wide release Rotten Tomatoes score of the year.

12. Rush – Peter Morgan – The movie just seems way too Oscary for it to be forgotten. The awards buzz is lacking, but we will see with the NBR and such whether it stands a chance at the Oscars.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler – She is Oprah. Her movie was hugely popular with audiences. She is a past nominee. She has to be the favorite.

2. Lupita Nyongo – 12 Years a Slave – She is the emotional center of the story. If the movie is in for a sweep, then she could go all the way.

3. Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station – She had the most excruciating scene of the year. She wonderfully underplayed what would have been overdone by almost any other actress. Voters may want to reward the Oscar-winner with a validation nom.

4. Melissa Leo – Prisoners – Even though she is always a bit over-the-top, that is what the voters love. Her part is one of the more important ones in the movie, and she is almost unrecognizable. It seems like a performance that will be forgotten all awards season until Oscar nomination morning.

5. Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle – Her character resembles Blake Lively’s part in The Town, but this is a much safer Oscar movie. She is maybe the most popular actress in the world at the moment. They cannot give her enough noms.

Others in contention

6. Sarah Paulson – 12 Years a Slave – She is said to be one of the most hateful characters of the year. This seems like a wide detour from her normal parts. She could split votes with her co-stars, though.

7. Julia Roberts – August: Osage County – It is unclear which roles are truly lead and supporting. She has not been invited back since her win in 2000, despite several co-stars getting nominated. Could this be her big Oscar comeback?

8. Jennifer Garner – Dallas Buyers Club – Her part in the trailer seemed to be a bit less consequential than I had originally suspected, but the movie has Oscar written all over it. She could ride the film’s momentum all the way if it strikes a chord with wide audiences.

9. June Squibb – Nebraska – This would be a seriously random nomination, but she is said to have a scene-stealing part. If the movie is an About Schmidt-type venture, then she could be the Kathy Bates nomination. Wait, Squibb was in that movie too?

10. Scarlett Johansson – Her – She had a nice year with this and Don Jon. She will get her due at some point, and this part could be the one that finally brings her to the ceremony.

11. Carey Mulligan – Inside Llewyn Davis – The Coens are always good for their supporting players. She looks like one of the standouts, judging by the trailers.

12. Margo Martindale – August: Osage County – She is a face that tons of people will recognize from TV and smaller parts in movies. Can she outshine Roberts?

13. Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine – The supporting actresses in Woody Allen movies are always in contention. She was excellent, and voters may still be looking for a way to make up for not nominating her incredible role in Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street – The second trailer painted Hill as the Christoph Waltz-type part from Django. He looks like the sidekick with all the great lines and probably will walk away with the star-studded movie. He already has one nom. It is weird to think that he could be an Oscar winner.

2. Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave – McQueen has proved that he pulls the best out of Fassbender. If her were to win an Oscar, he owes it to McQueen for it to be for one of his films.

3. Bradley Cooper – American Hustle – In that crazy cast of David O. Russell veterans, Cooper appears to be the supporting player who is most in his element.

4. John Goodman – Inside Llewyn Davis – After two straight Best Pictures and countless goodwill, Goodman is in excellent position to finally get his first ever nomination. It is fitting that it would be for a Coen Bros film.

5. Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club – The stills and clips that we have seen thus far of his character are frighteningly believable. Playing a cross-dresser is hit or miss with the Academy. In a film like this, it seems like a relative sure thing.

Others in contention

6. Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks – I am not completely sold on its Oscar merit, but Disney and Hanks seem like a match made in movie heaven. If the movie is a hit, then a double nom is likely in the cards for Hanks, even though he has never been mentioned in this category.

7. Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips – He absolutely holds his own in that movie, and actually steals a fair amount of it. It is not unheard of for a non-actor to get nominated: Quvenzhane Wallis last year, Gabourey Sidibe in ’09…

8. Josh Brolin – Labor Day – He is going to have a big couple of months with Oldboy and Labor Day. His role seems like one that is made for a Supporting Actor nomination, but the trailer was somewhat underwhelming. Reitman is going to need to really push him for him to get mentioned here.

9. George Clooney – Gravity – Not surprisingly, he steals the scenes that he is in just because he is who he is. If the Academy really loves it, then look for him to make an appearance, since they no longer have The Monuments Men to go gaga over.

10. Jake Gyllenhaal – Prisoners – He gave the best performance in the film and of his career. He is definitely not supporting, but he wasn’t in Brokeback either. This would be a cool outside-the-box nom.

11. Geoffrey Rush – The Book Thief – He is one of the most beloved character actors out there. If the movie is a hit, then he could threaten the top five.

12. James Gandolfini – Enough Said – The posthumous nomination always sounds good on paper, but it almost never actually happens. He had been so close to a nomination recently that this might just be the type of role that could do it, even though Nicole Holofcener’s films have never gotten a single nom in any category.

13. Will Forte – Nebraska – It is funny to think that an Oscar category could include Will Forte and Jonah Hill, but it is entirely possible. The co-lead who campaigns supporting is nominated often.

14. Daniel Bruhl – Rush – I am still holding out hope for this role and this film to get mentioned. He gave one of the most moving and surprising performances of the year.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Sandra Bullock – Gravity – The movie is essentially the Sandra Bullock show, and it is the best she has ever been. Is she really ready for a second win? It certainly appears that way…

2. Meryl Streep – August: Osage County – She is getting nominated, obviously. Can she tie Katherine Hepburn’s record with four wins? If the trailer is any indication, then that answer would be a big Y-E-S.

3. Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine – She dominates Woody Allen’s film with a frustrating and brilliantly-realized character. If she starts to pick up the precursors, then she will immediately establish herself as the favorite in the category.

4. Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks – The movie looks a bit goofy, but Thompson is a great actress and former winner who always seems to elevate the material.

5. Brie Larson – Short Term 12 – This would definitely be an eyebrow-raising nomination, but there is always a newcomer in the group. Her film is almost unanimously praised, so keep an eye on this one.

Others in contention

6. Judi Dench – Philomena – Well, she is Dame Judi Dench, so she is always nominated for every relevant role, but maybe they will take a break from her. I mean, she wasn’t nominated for Skyfall, despite the buzz, right? Yeah, I am not convinced either.

7. Amy Adams – American Hustle – She is said to be terrific in the movie, but I never got the indication that she actually was the lead. This would be a pleasant surprise, though.

8. Kate Winslet – Labor Day – I love the film’s potential, and her character seems like it was made for Oscar. It can’t be exactly like 2006 (Blanchett, Streep, Winslet, Dench), can it?

9. Berenice Bejo – The Past – Fresh off a nom for The Artist, she gets directed by recent Oscar winner Asghar Farhadi. She has got to be in contention.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave – Despite several great roles and movies, he has never been nominated. That may be the thing that prevents him from winning. Only one of the last six winners in this category was for a first-time nominee.

2. Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club – He is ready for a nomination, and this heroic role seems like it was written for McConaughey to play and get nominated for.

3. Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips – He is Tom Hanks, and while his role did not require him to stray too far from his comfort zone, it should not matter. This is the Denzel Washington – Flight guaranteed nomination with no chance of winning.

4. Joaquin Phoenix – Her – This may seem a little bizarre at this point, but watching the trailer, it is impossible to see any Phoenix in it. This may be his biggest step out that the chameleon has ever taken.

5. Bruce Dern – Nebraska – He has been buzzed since Cannes, and he hasn’t been nominated in 35 years. His nom seems assured, assuming that audiences seek out the black-and-white indie flick and fall for it the way festivals and critics have.

Others in contention

6. Robert Redford – All Is Lost – It appears to be between him and Dern for the fifth spot. I give the edge slightly to Dern, only because it is more conventional. Without any real speaking in the film, how much will the Academy like All Is Lost?

7. Forest Whitaker – Lee Daniels’ The Butler – He is the star of the box office hit. Weinstein will never give up on the movie. It seems weird to not be predicting such an Academy-friendly role…

8. Christian Bale – American Hustle – He is almost unrecognizable in the movie. He sounds like he is doing his De Niro impression. In fact it is totally a 1970s-era De Niro-type role. If the movie is a massive hit, then he will be nominated.

9. Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis – He has been in and around Oscar movies recently, but being the star of a Coen Bros movie does not always yield nominations, sadly.

10. Idris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom – On paper, this has to be the favorite. The film might just be too conventional to really hit home with audiences.

11. Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station – He gave one of the best performances of the year, and he is a future movie star. If he gets nominated, then Weinstein deserves all the credit. This movie seems almost completely forgotten.

12. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street – The Academy loves to snub DiCaprio. Throughout both trailers, it just seems that we are watching Leo being Leo. It is all of the supporting roles that seem to own the film.

13. Ben Stiller – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty – If the movie wins over wide audiences, then this could be the Kevin Costner – Dances with Wolves overenthusiastic nomination.

14. Hugh Jackman – Prisoners – The movie is an actor showcase, and this is the best work he has ever done. If they film is in for a few acting noms, which is entirely possible, then look for him to gobble up a second consecutive Best Actor nom.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave – His film is the one to beat at this point, and with the exception of the fallout of the strange and pathetic Ben Affleck snub last year, the Academy does not like to split Picture and Director.

2. David O. Russell – American Hustle – He is going to win one at some point. His last two films have been hugely popular Oscar movies. He is just up against a juggernaut.

3. Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street – Four of his last five films have been nominated for Best Picture and Director. The only one that wasn’t was pushed back and blew up the box office. He cannot miss right now. We will see how much he had to compromise in his editing process, though.

4. Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis – The Coens are always nominated here. Their film could win the whole thing if it lives up to the promise.

5. Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity – His nomination should be guaranteed, given that it is the best pure directorial achievement since United 93. The Academy is just hesitant when it comes to science-fiction, but this is more like science-reality. It could/should demolish that voter reluctance and preconceived notions.

Others in contention

6. Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips – His film is one of the more interesting directorial achievements of the year, blending several different styles into one big action-drama picture. He could easily garner his second career nomination.

7. Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine – He seems to get nominated here even more than in Best Picture. This film does not have any real Woody Allen originality in terms of directing, but it is an impressive detour from his usual style.

8. John Lee Hancock – Saving Mr. Banks – If the film is good enough and deep enough, then the past nominee for producing could get his first nom for directing.

9. Lee Daniels – Lee Daniels’ The Butler – Never count out the impact of Harvey Weinstein. He was singled out for Precious back in ’09, so he could still be fresh on the memory of the Academy, since supposedly everyone has already forgotten about the horrible 2012 movie The Paperboy.

10. Ben Stiller – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty – I still think that this movie could be the next Forrest Gump, so to think that Stiller could be nominated here is not out of the question. He is an even better director than an actor.

11. John Wells – August: Osage County – The movie may be too simple for the director to be in contention, but he must have some talent, given that his only two films (The Company Men was the other) were star-studded and widely-hyped.

12. J.C. Chandor – All Is Lost – He seems to be in a tough spot with Cuaron’s film taking the novelty of the isolation movie, but he is a past nominee for writing, so he could have the hot hand. The movie appears to have astonishing directing.

13. Ron Howard – Rush – Howard is always in contention, and his film seems to bring the Oscar goods. Is auto racing just not their thing, though? Where is the buzz?

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)

1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen) – It has been reviewed as being the next Schindler’s List, which is about as high of praise that can be given to a historical movie. Unless its wide release proves otherwise, this will likely be the frontrunner for the long haul.

2. American Hustle (David O. Russell) – Following Argo may be the worst thing for the movie, since that is the style and era of the film. In any other year, it would be the odds-on favorite for sure.

3. Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen) – I love its chances at getting nominated, but a win will only happen if it wins over the box office. We shall see in December…

4. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese) – Under no circumstances can this movie win Best Picture, but under no circumstances will this miss out on a nomination. Even though it appears to be more Casino than anything else, with the current format, Casino would have been nominated too.

5. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass) – The Tom Hanks-starring film leaves the audience with a gratifying and rewarding experience. It seems like a no-brainer Best Picture nominee.

6. Lee Daniels’ The Butler (Lee Daniels) – The box office success has this all but locked into a nomination.

7. Saving Mr. Banks (John Lee Hancock) – It seems clear that the film will win over wide audiences, but will Academy voters be moved enough to give it the necessary first place votes?

8. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen) – Woody Allen’s films are probably always in the second five for Best Picture. If enough voters remember the film for something other than Blanchett, then this should coast to a nomination.

9. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron) – I am still not completely sold on this, but it deserves it. Even District 9, as violent and action-packed as it was, got nominated for Best Picture. Gravity has the box office and critical acclaim. I think it sneaks out a nom.

10. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Ben Stiller) – There really is not too much more to say about this. No one has seen it. It is completely in limbo until its Christmas release.

Others in contention

11. August: Osage County (John Wells) – It would be difficult to snub a movie if there are as many acting noms as it could end up with. It is going to need to be a hit.

12. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee) – The movie seems like a safe Oscar movie, but what exactly has Jean-Marc Vallee done to convince us he is capable of handling that material? His only other film with real aspirations (The Young Victoria) sort of flopped.

13. Before Midnight (Richard Linklater) – It is the best film that will come out this year, but it is hard to imagine that many voters actually proclaiming that fact.

14. Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler) – If there is something from the first half of the year that has a chance at this category, then it is this timely, tragic, and brilliant little true story.

15. Rush (Ron Howard) – It was hailed as the next Rocky and had box office and reviews to prove it. Maybe it could still surprise, but I almost feel like it needs to take the NBR or get a Golden Globe nom to get back in the race.

So, there you have it. Thoughts? Predictions? Overlooked films/performances? What are your favorites of the year so far? Let me know!

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SNL Season 39.5 Review - Kerry Washington, Eminem

Some people were quite critical of Saturday Night Live when they went out to replace the many cast members that were moving on to bigger and better things that of the six new cast members brought on board, only one was a woman and none of them were black.  I mean, it's the 6th year of Obama's presidency and they have not been able to have a Michelle Obama impersonator.  When Kerry Washington was announced as host, you knew they would take advantage of having a talented African American woman around.  Kerry Washington was amazing every time she was on screen.  I only wish the overall product was a little better.

Cold Opening

By far the best sketch of the night was the cold open.  Every time a black woman has hosted in the last few years, they have taken their turn at being Michelle Obama so you knew it was going to happen at some point.  It ended up being the first thing out of the box.  Not only did she play the First Lady, but it also made light that they take advantage of having someone like Kerry Washington around.  Can she do Oprah?  Beyonce (with or without Jay-Z)?  In one sketch?  She pulled it off well.

Monologue

With such a strong cold opening, I had high hopes for the rest of the episode.  However, they followed up one of the strongest cold openings of the season with one of the most disappointing monologues of the season.  I don't watch Scandal, however the banter back and forth as they discussed the show didn't spark my interest in any way to watch it.  Quite the opposite actually.

Weekend Update

Kate McKinnon has become very good at playing quirky Weekend Update guests with this week's incarnation being German Chancellor Angela Merkel.  However, the highlight of this week's installment was the NBA talk (among many other things) with Charles Barkley and Shaquille O'Neal (Kenan Thompson & Jay Pharaoh).  It was random, ridiculous, and completely hilarious.

Best Sketch

This season's most memorable sketches so far have been random music videos that are randomly thrown in the middle of all the live sketches.  From "Boy Dance Party" to "We Did Stop (the Government)," they have brought about some of the biggest laughs so far.  This week was the same.  It was only a matter of time that a sensation like "What Does the Fox Say?" made its way to the show, and it was the perfect way to bring it up.  Jay Pharaoh and Kerry Washington were perfect making fun of each other.

Worst Sketch

There were several sketches that didn't really work.  Even though Kerry shined almost every time she was on screen, the sketches weren't just that funny overall.  This includes the sketch immediately following the monologue starring Nasim Pedrad as a motivational speaker at Career Day.  Pedrad shines very now and then, but some of her cooky characters are too bizarre to be accessible.  This character is the perfect example.  Again, Kerry was funny when she came on screen, but I just didn't get it.

Dark Horse Sketch

Kerry Washington hosts a game show where three complete idiots guess the catchphrase from popular cartoon shows.  They constantly need to use their "phone a friend" to get help on these simple questions.  Each time they do, the answers get more ridiculous as Aidy Bryant's husband seems to be having romantic escapades with everyone that is called.  Aidy might be the queen of the one-liners right now on the show.

Grade

Outside the great skills of the host, nothing in this episode really impressed me.  Nothing made me cringe quite like Bruce Willis's "pwetty kitty cat," but nothing could be considered great either.  It is a very forgettable episode, which is sad since Kerry Washington proved to be a very worthy host.  I hope she gets another shot at it when the writers have a little more practice writing to her style.

***C***

View the full episode here:

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Week 10 College Football Recap: Rankings, Heisman, BCS Projections

After a week hiatus/vacation in Las Vegas, I am back with my Week 10 Recap! If not for Virginia Tech’s stunning loss to Duke, my Cornhuskers laying an egg on the road, and my nemesis Missouri missing a chip shot, I would have come home way ahead. Anyway, check out my reactions to what transpired the last couple of weeks:

Top 25 Poll

Others receiving votes: Arizona, Ball State, BYU, Notre Dame, Texas

Dropped from the rankings: Notre Dame (24), BYU (25)

25 (NR). Houston (7-1) – This offense is for real. They had a bit of a hiccup on a short week against South Florida, but they got it done. Their stretch run begins now.

24 (NR). Arizona State (6-2) – When the Sun Devils are at their best, they are maybe the best team in the division.

23 (21). LSU (7-2) – IDLE. Next week: at Alabama.

22 (20). Texas Tech (7-2) – They had a tough loss to an inspired and hard-to-prepare-for Oklahoma State team. They are still a great offense and one that no one really wants to face. I can’t wait to see the chess match shootout when the Red Raiders play Baylor.

21 (23). Michigan State (8-1) – So, they can lose to Notre Dame and almost shut out Michigan? They can have no offense and now score 30 per game? This is a team I cannot get a read on. We will see how they handle the pressure in Nebraska following their bye next week.

20 (22). Wisconsin (6-2) – The Badgers look really strong right now. If there was a rematch with the Buckeyes, my money might be on this team.

19 (19). Oklahoma (7-1) – IDLE. Next week: at Baylor.

18 (16). UCLA (6-2) – They appeared to be sleepwalking for part of the game against a putrid Colorado team. They had better show up in Arizona next week if they want to win the South.

17 (17). Northern Illinois (9-0) – They do not have any decent teams left on their schedule. Jordan Lynch is a freak, though. They are fun to watch.

16 (18). Oklahoma State (7-1) – They had a big time win in Lubbock. They still control their own destiny in that strange Big 12.

15 (15). Louisville (7-1) – IDLE. Next week: at Connecticut.

14 (14). UCF (6-1) – IDLE. Next week: vs Houston.

13 (13). South Carolina (7-2) – This team is so confusing. They had another nice win yesterday and a huge win last week against Missouri after an embarrassing loss to Tennessee. They are a good team, though…I think?

12 (12). Texas A&M (7-2) – The Aggies got a mini-bye week with UTEP going to College Station. They took care of business early.

11 (10). Fresno State (8-0) – Their defense has been exposed the past few weeks. They have the offensive talent to score on nearly anyone, but without a solid defense, I cannot see them actually upsetting anyone.

10 (8). Miami (7-1) – They performed about as well as could be expected against one of the true class teams in the nation. It was still disappointing to see how horribly they handled pressure, though. They will, in all likelihood, get another shot at the Noles in the ACC Title Game.

9 (11). Missouri (8-1) – The Tigers had another dominating win over the weekend. Their only loss was not in regulation. How did this team get so good so fast?

8 (9). Auburn (8-1) – Not that it really matters (since voters will not move them off the 1-line if they keep winning), but Alabama has got to be the biggest Auburn fans out there now. Bama has such an easy schedule that they need the Iron Bowl to mean something. This is a tough-minded and sneaky great team.

7 (7). Clemson (8-1) – The offense finally opened it up again to show what they are really capable of. They are absolutely in the driver’s seat to go to a BCS bowl if they can avoid an upset against in-state rival South Carolina to close the season.

6 (6). Stanford (7-1) – IDLE. Next week: vs Oregon.

5 (5). Ohio State (9-0) – The Buckeyes have stopped playing down to their competition, finally. They are looking like a team that is good enough to beat an Alabama or Oregon. They have very few tough games left. They have a tricky rivalry game against a weaker Michigan squad and potentially a shot at the nation’s best defense (Sparty) in the B1G Title Game.

4 (3). Baylor (7-0) – IDLE. Next week: vs Oklahoma.

3 (4). Florida State (8-0) – They now have perhaps the two most impressive wins of the season, after hammering unbeaten Clemson and Miami teams. They look like an NFL team against the ACC. It is such a shame that they, Ohio State, and Baylor will not have a shot at the BCS Championship. That stupid 4-team “solution” wouldn’t even work this year. HOLIDAY MADNESS, anyone?

2 (2). Alabama (8-0) – IDLE. Next week: vs LSU.

1 (1). Oregon (8-0) – IDLE. Next week: at Stanford.

Top 5 Games for Next Weekend

5. BYU at Wisconsin (#20), 12:30PM ESPN – If you like smash-mouth football, then this is the game of the weekend. The rushing attacks of these two teams are as good as there is in the country. I love this matchup. And is it just me, or is BYU a lot better Independent than expected? PREDICTION: Wisconsin 31-24

4. Houston (#25) at UCF (#14), 4:00PM ESPN2 – The AAC is going to be entertaining from now until the end of the season. This is the start of the terrific matchups. PREDICTION: UCF 44-38

3. LSU (#23) at Alabama (#2), 5:00PM CBS – This is always one of the best games of the year. I have been calling for this upset for weeks, but now I just cannot go through with it. It will be a close one, and if there is an SEC team with a shot at taking down the beast, it is LSU. PREDICTION: Alabama 31-23

2. Oklahoma (#19) at Baylor (#4), THURSDAY 4:30PM FS1 – This is going to be the first real test of how good that Baylor offense is. Oklahoma is not elite, but they are Oklahoma. This should be quite a show. Thursday is going to be amazing. PREDICTION: Baylor 42-31

1. Oregon (#1) at Stanford (#6), THURSDAY 6:00PM ESPN – How did the 2^nd most anticipated game of the year (behind Bama-A&M) get stuck on a Thursday night? This is the one everyone wants to see and the real test for Oregon, if there is any team that really can test them. PREDICTION: Oregon 38-34

Heisman Trophy Watch

5. AJ McCarron, QB, Alabama – At some point, this guy it going to get his due. He is not Greg McElroy or Jason White or Danny Wuerffel. He is an NFL-level talent and the reason why his team keeps winning.

4. Jordan Lynch, QB, Northern Illinois – His rushing stats are just ridiculous. His passing is improving. He is like a better version of 2012 Heisman finalist Colin Klein, but with speed.

3. Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M – He just effortlessly dominates games every week. His stats are even more impressive than his Heisman campaign last year.

2. Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State – He had some bad decisions and throws for the first time this year in his rivalry game win over Miami. He responded well and will be in the spotlight until the 2015 NFL Draft.

1. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon – He is still clearly the best player in the nation. He is polished and virtually unstoppable. That Stanford game is looming and bigger than ever.

BCS Projections

Rose Bowl – Stanford over Ohio State

Orange Bowl – Florida State over UCF

Sugar Bowl – Auburn over Clemson

Fiesta Bowl – Baylor over Fresno State

BCS Championship Game – Oregon over Alabama

What did you think of the past couple weeks? Did you see the Hail Mary to end the Nebraska-Northwestern game (video below)? Who would you put in the BCS Championship Game as of right now? Will any of the top 5 lose? Let me know!

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