2012 Oscar Predictions: October

The Oscar race has started to take shape in the last couple months. A handful of the projected contenders have come out in theaters to overall mixed reception. There are still most of the Oscar movies waiting to get released, which is probably for the best, because by that time all of these movies will have already disappointed and been forgotten. Here is how I see the race looking as of right now:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - The trailer looks alright, but the Academy will eat this up.

2. The Descendents – I do not know if they want to give Payne two consecutive Oscars, but the early word on this is fantastic, despite the underwhelming trailers.

3. War Horse – This movie is likely one of the frontrunners, and those are always nominated for screenplay.

4. The Ides of March – The screenplay is really tight, but the reviews for this were not necessarily unanimous. This category is the best shot it has, though.

5. The Help – The box office performance is astonishing for this movie. That will translate into a massive Oscar push and likely quite a bit of success.

Others in contention

6. Moneyball – Leftover love for The Social Network might help Sorkin, but I am not convinced that this category is the lock it once appeared to be.

7. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – This is not having great early reviews, but this seems like the British movie that could take the Academy by storm.

8. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – The trailers have been amazing, but it may be too similar to the original and too soon. We will see how this is perceived, but the script will likely be top notch.

9. Carnage – The trailer looks pretty amazing, but these limited character films do not normally get screenplay nominations. Look for massive Golden Globe love for this one.

10. A Dangerous Method – This movie is a wildcard. No one really knows what to expect, but the trailers are great. Cronenberg has not made a bad movie in a long time.

11. We Need to Talk About Kevin – This could be the gritty indie comedy that the Academy loves, but I am not convinced yet. Acting nominations are more likely.

12. We Bought a Zoo – Wasn’t enthusiastic about the trailer, but this is its most likely nomination spot.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. The Artist – This is Oscar stuff. Nothing really else to say.

2. Yong Adult – Reitman movies seem to just always be in the running for this category. Cody will get her second nomination for sure.

3. Midnight in Paris – Woody Allen’s biggest box office ever and his movie creative script in over 15 years.

4. Like Crazy – The Sundance darling will certainly have its Academy following. I am betting this will sweep audiences off their collective feet.

5. The Tree of Life – I am still holding out hope that this will get major Oscar nominations, foolishly maybe.

Others in contention

6. J. Edgar – The trailer was not a big hit, but with Clint at the helm, it is never out of the running.

7. Martha Marcy May Marlene – The last two films of this type were nominated for screenplay, but will the Oscars go for more light films this year? Possibly.

8. Take This Waltz – Sarah Polley’s second film is way under the radar, hopefully not too far.

9. Bridesmaids – Horrible movie that everyone apparently loved. But if Apatow cannot get nominated, why would this?

10. Beginners – This just wreaks of being that movie like Another Year that will sneak into the screenplay category at the last possible second after being completely written off.

11. Rampart – Moverman was nominated for his last film, which was similarly under the radar.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Sandra Bullock – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – Her part in the trailer looks really good, and it takes a lot for me to compliment her.

2. Judi Dench – J. Edgar – Default nominee in this category. The actor branch adores her.

3. Octavia Spencer – The Help – This is the kind of odd, likable character that get mentioned in this category.

4. Jessica Chastain – The Help – The best in the cast, plus with her insane year, she will need to get nominated for one of them. This is her most memorable part.

5. Vanessa Redgrave – Coriolanus – She is becoming more and more likely to get nominated here. That movie is a dark horse.

Others in contention

6. Berenice Bejo – The Artist – Unknown actress, but she is said to steal the show.

7. Keira Knightley – A Dangerous Method – She appears to be the best in the cast from the trailer, but she has shined before in more Oscar material and not gotten in.

8. Kate Winslet – Carnage – Who knows if she or the rest of the cast is going lead or supporting?

9. Jessica Chastain – The Tree of Life, Take Shelter, Coriolanus – She will get in for one of these if she doesn’t for The Help.

10. Sarah Silverman – Take This Waltz – I do not want to completely count her out. I have faith in this movie. Maybe I am the only one who cares.

11. Elizabeth Reaser – Young Adult – I do not even think she was in the trailer, but she could come out of nowhere.

12. Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids – I would die a little inside if she gets nominated.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn – This is going to be a big role, and the British will certainly get behind him.

2. Christopher Plummer – Beginners – This performance is perhaps the most beloved of the year’s first half and could very well take it all the way to the Oscars.

3. Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life – This is that one forgotten amazing performance that will get overlooked everywhere but the Oscars. Mark my words.

4. Niels Arestrup – War Horse – He is the dark horse in the competition because he is relatively unknown to American audiences but will certainly steal the show in his scenes.

5. Patton Oswalt – Young Adult – His part in the trailer was more significant than I had anticipated. Looks to be a scene-stealer.

Others in contention

6. Albert Brooks – Drive – After seeing the movie, I realized his part, while impressive, is just too small. His veteran card will get him some mentions, but he will fall just short here.

7. Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – He may have to keep waiting for that inevitable Honorary Oscar.

8. Jonah Hill – Moneyball – The best performance in the movie. His part is so interesting and spot-on that he has a real shot here.

9. Jim Broadbent – The Iron Lady – Playing opposite Streep has its benefits.

10. Viggo Mortensen – A Dangerous Method – Said to be great in this film directed by the guy who got him his first nom.

11. Armie Hammer – J. Edgar – This could be the Brolin in Milk/Giamatti in Cinderella Man “sorry we forgot you last year” nomination.

12. Tom Hanks – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – He is never really out of it.

13. John C. Reilly – Carnage – Being directed by Polanski is always a plus.

14. Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Ides of March – Had a couple terrific scenes, but his cast was just as good.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn – It is hard to see her not at least getting nominated for this role. She has to be the frontrunner.

2. Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady – I see her getting nominated obviously, but winning just may never happen for her again.

3. Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – The trailer almost locked her into this category if she is indeed lead. The original was more about the Craig character.

4. Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene – Everything I hear is raves for Olsen. She will probably get in.

5. Viola Davis – The Help – I fear that going lead will hurt her chances, but her raves were so universal that it is hard to see a scenario where she doesn’t get in.

Others in contention

6. Kristen Dunst – Melancholia – She won at Cannes, but the film may be too weird for the Oscars. I have faith in her though.

7. Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs – She has the transformation role that normally gets nominated, but she is often overlooked.

8. Felicity Jones – Like Crazy – She could be one of the new faces in the crowd.

9. Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin – Her role promises to be gutsy, and the initial reviews have put the spotlight on her role.

10. Jodie Foster – Carnage – It is hard to judge the category placement for any of the actors in this.

11. Charlize Theron – Young Adult – She will probably be terrific in this, but a nomination seems unlikely considering the work she does between her really good roles.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Jean Dujardin – The Artist – I do not know why, but I feel like this is the most likely winner in any major category at this point.

2. George Clooney – The Descendents – This is almost a lock for a nomination.

3. Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar – It is hard to see the Academy not nominating DiCaprio for this role that he will likely nail.

4. Gary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – Everyone knows he is the best living actor without a nomination. If he is half good in this, he will get nominated.

5. Brad Pitt – Moneyball – His superstar status and likability will get him tons of notices. If he takes home a critic award or two and secures BFCA and HFPA nominations, then this is a foregone conclusion.

Others in contention

6. Michael Fassbender – Shame – Talks of NC-17 are scary, but it didn’t hurt Michelle Williams last year.

7. Woody Harrelson – Rampart – Maybe my most anticipated film, Harrelson will likely own in his second Moverman film.

8. Christoph Waltz – Carnage – Who knows?

9. Michael Shannon – Take Shelter – This looks amazing, and Shannon is always cool to see in the race.

10. Ryan Gosling – Drive – This is his most likely nomination for his huge year.

11. Paul Giamatti – Win Win – We wrote off Richard Jenkins for his early year release in a McCarthy film too. I wouldn’t completely count him out.

12. Sean Penn – This Must be the Place – I have no clue about this movie, but from the pictures I have seen, Penn will likely overplay it. That is usually enough for him at the Oscars.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Stephen Daldry – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – Maybe they will just finally give him a win so that they can stop nominating him for everything.

2. Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist – Will get nominated for sure, but can he win?

3. Steven Spielberg – War Horse – Seems like a lock to many, but I am not convinced that this will live up to the hype.

4. Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life – I hope I am right about this. The Tree of Life is all Malick. It is foolish to think that he does not deserve a nomination at least.

5. David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - Maybe this is the ultimate wishful thinking, but I believe in him and the material.

Others in contention

6. Jason Reitman – Young Adult­ – Always in the running, but this may be a bit too light.

7. Alexander Payne – The Descendents – I am not sold on it, but everyone who has seen it is. Good enough for me.

8. Clint Eastwood – J. Edgar – Can they continue to snub him?

9. Tate Taylor – The Help – His film is poised for a huge Best Picture push, which immediately makes him a possibility.

10. Tomas Alfredson – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – His film may get in, but his recognition may have to still wait.

11. Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris – I am really curious to see how this is remembered in the coming months.

12. George Clooney – The Ides of March – Well-directed film, but reviews were not exactly what we were hoping for.

13. Nicolas Winding Refn – Drive – Could be the coolest nomination since William Hurt if it happens. He will need a couple critic awards to be taken completely seriously, though, even after his Cannes win.

14. Bennett Miller – Moneyball – If his movie is popular enough, then he could get swept in. It wasn’t quite as impressive work as Capote, however.

15. Angelina Jolie – In the Land of Blood and Honey – It is said to be epic and beautiful in the tradition of classic Oscar movies. Will anyone see this in time?

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 7 will get nominated)

1. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – Trailer looks corny, but the 10 year anniversary of 9/11 helps more than we may realize. They may want something inspiring and weepy.

2. The Artist – It is hard to see the actors branch not making this one of the films to beat.

3. The Help – The love for this film is bigger than anyone could have thought. A Best Picture nomination seems almost locked, and I cannot believe I am saying that.

4. War Horse – Whether it is good or not, it will get nominated. See: Munich.

5. The Tree of Life – There are enough Malick fans and fans of the film in general that it will likely get the 5% of the votes needed. Plus, the love/hate intrigue will probably add an interesting storyline to the race, which the AMPAS is always looking for.

6. The Descendents – Alexander Payne movies are usually loved, but this one seems much more like a critics film than an Oscar movie. It will likely snag one of the last spots.

7. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – The release date certainly helps. If it leaves everyone breathless, that will translate into a nomination here while it is fresh on everyone’s mind.

8. Moneyball – Everyone seemed to really enjoy it, but is this really Best Picture material?

9. J. Edgar – It screams Oscar, but the bias against Eastwood is hard to ignore.

10. Young Adult – I am not counting this completely out, but the trailer may be too much comedy and not quite enough dramedy.

Others in contention

11. Like Crazy – This is major dark horse in all categories.

12. Midnight in Paris – I have no clue if anyone will remember this, but if they do, it could get nominated for sure.

13. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – This is one of the biggest British threats. They may jump behind it. And does this remind anyone else of The Departed?

14. Martha Marcy May Marlene – The status of this is somewhat unknown. Could it pull a Winter’s Bone?

15. The Ides of March – It seems like more of a Golden Globe film than an Oscar film.

16. Carnage – With potential acting nominations all around, it would be foolish to count it out.

17. Rampart – Sometimes under the radar is the best place to be.

18. In the Land of Blood and Honey – Just because we never know how much the AMPAS loves Hollywood’s most beloved couple.

So, that’s what I got. There are still a ton of films that I have not seen and that no one has really seen, so in the next month and a half, these lists will be whittled down significantly. What do you think? Anything I overlooked? Have you seen any of these at festivals and can provide insight into their award potential? Let me know.

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Power Rankings: Most Bankable Hollywood Actors

Seeing how Moneyball is set to make a scorcher at the box office for no reason other than the fact that Brad Pitt is the lead, it got me thinking about who the most bankable actors are in the industry currently. By bankable, I am referring to box office guarantee, in terms of return on investment. The actors on this list can appear in almost anything and turn it into a box office smash. Every one of them has at least one flop, though, proving that it is impossible for anyone to be a complete guarantee. I am not holding independent films or supporting roles against them, since those films are reliant more on distribution and other actors than their own contribution to the film. For each actor, I will do a rundown of the past ten years or so, and I will give what I think is their single most impressive box office gross of their career as well as a notable flop. Note: I am only including actors (not actresses) because it would just be too difficult to combine them (meaning putting Sandra Bullock on the list).

Others receiving votes: Matt Damon, Leonardo DiCaprio, Tyler Perry, Seth Rogen, Denzel Washington

10. Tom Hanks

Most Impressive Box Office: Forrest Gump: $673 million ($55 million budget)

Notable Flop: Angels and Demons: $133 million ($150 million budget)

Ten years ago, Tom Hanks might have been topped this list. Now, however, since he is doing a lot more production work and less acting, his star has fallen a bit. Still, whenever he makes a movie, people want to see it. Larry Crowne had a decent run at the box office, despite not being all that good. His last big hit was The Terminal (excluding Toy Story 3), and that was 7 years ago. Angels and Demons was nowhere near as big as Da Vinci Code, but I feel like if he started making one or two movies per year again, he could be right back up there near the top.

9. George Clooney

Most Impressive Box Office: Ocean’s Eleven: $450 million ($85 million budget)

Notable Flop: Leatherheads: $31 million ($58 million budget)

George Clooney seems to be a lot more reliable in determining what is going to be awards-friendly than what is going to make a lot of money, but it is obvious that when he does appear in a movie, there is hype around it. His stardom has gotten to and perhaps surpassed Cary Grant-territory. His persona on and off screen has turned him into one of the most beloved celebrities around, and in all cases other than Leatherheads and The Good German (neither are good movies), he can pull in a $100 million box office in his sleep.

8. Jim Carrey

Most Impressive Box Office: Bruce Almighty: $484 million ($81 million budget)

Notable Flop: The Majestic: $37 million ($72 million budget)

Some of you may have a problem with my inclusion of Jim Carrey on this list, but it is undeniable that he can still pull the audiences in by the truckload. His star may not be as bright as it was 10-15 years ago, but Yes Man still pulled in over $200 million, and that was all him. Nothing about that movie could have been sold without his name attached to it. Mr. Popper’s Penguins is another example ($170+ million). These movies would not be made without Carrey. He is still as big of a star as anyone. I am not holding the horrible marketing of I Love You Phillip Morris against him. The Majestic is his only real flop, which only recovered about half of its budget. That was more of a problem with the fact that the movie is misunderstood than poor. Carrey is going to continue to make his movies and continue to tear up the box office as long as he wants to.

7. Ben Stiller

Most Impressive Box Office: Night at the Museum: $574 million ($110 million budget)

Notable Flop: Envy: $12 million ($40 million budget)

It is always interesting to see who actually the biggest stars in Hollywood are. Ben Stiller has to be on that shortlist. He does not have the movie star looks, voice, or persona. He is like the normal guy who cannot make a movie without people wanting to see it. Everything he does is a hit, and he always is playing more or less the same character. Night at the Museum is his single most impressive hit, mainly because it is the Ben Stiller show the entire time. Plus it got a sequel. His flops were Envy and Duplex, the two lame romantic comedies he tried to make in the middle of last decade that no one really saw and that never really got advertised. Now, however, even something as small as Greenberg gets its audience. He definitely deserves his spot on this list.

6. Shia LaBeouf

Most Impressive Box Office: Transformers: $706 million ($151 million budget)

Notable Flop: Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps: $70 million ($52 million budget)

Why does everyone love Shia LaBeouf? No, really that was a question. I can’t figure it out, but it would be ignorant to not include him in this conversation. Everything the guy touches turns to gold. Holes, Disturbia, Transformers, Eagle Eye. Everything he appears in gets a huge audience. The only one that didn’t was by far his best movie, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, which I think was just too smart for mass audiences. The fact that Transformers pulled in over $700 million with that first film was probably 25% subject matter, 25% Michael Bay excessive advertising, and the rest was split between LaBeouf, the reviews, and Megan Fox’s midriff. It was he who got the audiences in the seats, because let’s face it, if the movie was animated or starred some other young actor, not everyone would want to see it. LaBeouf is just one of those unique personalities that people can relate to, even when he is as pissed off and annoying as he is in all three of those ridiculously loud and obnoxious movies.

5. Tom Cruise

Most Impressive Box Office: The Firm: $262 million ($42 million budget)

Notable Flop: Lions for Lambs: $14 million ($30 million budget)

That’s right. He will not go away. It doesn’t even matter what the movie is about. Nazis, aliens, assassins… He makes everything a box office smash. It was difficult to find both a most impressive box office and a notable snub. I had to settle with Lions for Lambs, which was definitely not his fault, and I went with The Firm, mainly because it is the one film that would not have been anything without him in the lead role. It was 154 minute Tom Cruise show, and it became a huge $250+ million hit. Even now, he does Knight and Day, Valkyrie, a small part in Tropic Thunder. Each one of them nearly doubled their money. It is pretty smart of him to not make so many movies anymore, since people tend to not like him. But when he finally puts out another movie, people cannot avoid it. He leaves everyone wanting more.

4. Brad Pitt

Most Impressive Box Office: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: $329 million ($150 million budget)

Notable Flop: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford: $3 million ($30 million budget)

So, the man of the hour finally comes up. The decisions that this guy makes astound me. He works with every major director, turning each one of their films into one of the most talked about movies of the year. He had a very public Hollywood breakup with America’s sweetheart, and that does not touch his popularity like it would any other actor. In fact, people love him so much that they just blame it on the girl instead. It couldn’t have been his fault. Benjamin Button is his most impressive box office because that subject matter is so strange that I am not sure if anyone else could have made it that big. Jesse James was one of the worst advertised movies I have ever witnessed, so that had one horrible and short run at the box office after about 2 years of previews. But, he can still churn out movie after movie and make each one interesting. He is the definition of bankable. It is almost like directors cast him to ensure that their movie will be seen. Not a bad idea, actually…

3. Johnny Depp

Most Impressive Box Office: Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl: $652 million ($140 million budget)

Notable Flop: The Tourist: $67 million ($100 million budget)

One of the obvious choices on this list was the inclusion of Johnny Depp. Every time anyone sees him in a preview, it is hard to not want to see what he is up to. He has done everything from a Willy Wonka remake, a bloody musical about a demon barber, to an animated movie about a lizard. He has done it all, and everything he touches is monumentally popular. That is except The Tourist, which oddly got no audience despite Depp and arguably the second most marketable actress Angelina Jolie. Depp will continue to make his own strange movies and turn them all into worldwide hits. He is unstoppable.

2. Adam Sandler

Most Impressive Box Office: Big Daddy: $163 million ($34 million budget)

Notable Flop: Little Nicky: $39 million ($80 million budget)

Before you jump on me, just think about this. It is true. Adam Sandler has a massive army of fans who will go see whatever movie he makes no matter how horrible it is. He has made 6 movies in the last 4 years that have all been just Sandler and his buddies acting like little kids. And they all made money. His only movies that do not break even are his good movies (Funny People, Punch-Drunk Love, and Spanglish). But those are not Sandler movies. Those are signs that he actually wants to be an actor, not just a funny movie star spewing out fart jokes in dumb movies twice a year. But hey, he can keep making more and more of these movies and people will see them. As horrifying as Jack and Jill looks, I can assure you that it will get a critical thrashing and open to $30 million or more in the opening weekend. That’s just the way it works.

1. Will Smith

Most Impressive Box Office: The Pursuit of Happyness: $304 million ($55 million budget)

Notable Flop: Ali: $87 million ($107 million budget)

Yeah, no surprise here. It is crazy to think about how far Will Smith has come since being on Fresh Prince. He had that incredible $200+ million streak that ended with Seven Pounds, which somehow still made a bunch of money. Seriously, Will Smith can do whatever he wants. He is the coolest guy out there, and he is probably the most likable and down to earth celebrity on this list. His divorce may take a bit of his charm away, but it cannot touch his box office success. In the words of Tom Luginbill (and almost any other ESPN football analyst), “what he has been able to accomplish is remarkable”. The Pursuit of Happyness is a movie that exists solely because Smith wanted to make it. Place any actor in that role, and it is just an indie flick that no one sees. Insert Will Smith, and we have a $300 million monster hit and an Oscar nomination. It is astonishing. Ali is his only movie to not break even, but that is one of his acting roles, not his entertainment pictures. And it was before his streak started. Try to argue with Will Smith being the top of this list. I dare you.

So, what do you make of this? Did I miss anyone? What is your top 5? Let me know.

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Leo’s Quest for an Oscar

For the past 10 years or so, 3-time Oscar nominee Leonardo DiCaprio has been trying to win an Oscar. That is indisputable. Look at the movies he has attached himself to. He has been the lead in four true stories during the span. He has taken on several actors’ acting roles. The one thing that I believe is holding him back from finally winning his Oscar that he deserves is his perception. There are still a large portion of filmgoers that believe that he cannot act, going all the way back to his love or hate work in Titanic. He is also very opinionated about the environment and other social issues. Some people just do not like him, but it is almost impossible to say that he has not deserved to win an Oscar based solely on performance. It is also ignorant to think that quality of acting is the only variable in Academy voting. When will Leo finally win his Oscar? Will it be this year? I will try to figure that out.

Starting back in 1993, DiCaprio had his showiest role of his career, playing the mentally-challenged kid in What’s Eating Gilbert Grape. Four years later, he was cast as the lead in Titanic, which turned everyone off to DiCaprio for some reason, thinking that he was too soft and could not hold a dramatic role in the biggest movie ever. Who else that age could have done that, by the way? I am part of the minority that thinks that he was actually quite good in that movie. It was totally a role that should have gotten Oscar love, but apparently being the lead in the most beloved movie of the year and being a past nominee wasn’t enough.

After that, flops came his way until he got the chance to work with Scorsese and Spielberg in the same year. Gangs of New York and Catch Me If You Can marked the beginning of modern day Leo. He was tremendous and critically-acclaimed in the latter and mired in mediocre reviews in the former. But it was obvious that he was maturing as an actor. Those critical of him still had the complaint that he cannot hold a movie on his own.

Then came The Aviator, his best performance to date and the one that should have won the Oscar. Why did the Academy not eat it up? Well, who knows? They went with the gimmicky Jaime Foxx role in Ray. But, he had to have won everyone over by this point, right? Not exactly. It was not until 2006, when The Departed came out that everyone sort of warmed up to him, or most people did. It was like when Paul Rudd watches Bourne in The 40 Year Old Virgin and goes, “I always thought that he was sort of a Streisand, but I think he’s rockin the shit in this one…” It was like Leo’s coming out party. Everyone loved him in that tough, gritty role that should have won him another Oscar. But, unfortunately, he was nominated for his more Academy-friendly role in the surprise hit Blood Diamond.

Following that, he had a Ridley Scott role in Body of Lies, an actor’s wet dream in Revolutionary Road, a couple showy roles in Shutter Island and Inception. You would have thought that Winslet and DiCaprio, both looking for Oscars, could have won together in 2008. That would have been a great story, but no. They give Leo the finger by nominating Winslet for another role, and shafting Leo’s movie completely.

Now, this year, it appears to be Leo’s year. But, I do not think so. He has the great physical transformation and makeup work, he plays a character whose role spans a long time, he probably dies in the movie, and it is Clint Eastwood. But, the backlash has already started it seems. I almost want Leo to not win. He is so talented that I want him to win for a really great role, not one begging to win. I think he will obviously be nominated this year, but a win will have to wait.

Next year, Leo will be busy. He has three movies that could get him that Oscar. He plays a slave runner in Tarantino’s Django Unchained. This would be awesome to see him win the Oscar for. You know his character is going to be vicious and brutal, and for him to get recognized for something like this, his reputation may change forever. He also has a Todd Field movie and a reunion with Baz Luhrmann playing the title role in The Great Gatsby. Any of those he could totally shine in. But, I have the feeling that his OScar will have to wait for him to get one more important role in a Scorsese picture. They are the perfect team, and whenever that Teddy Roosevelt film finally gets made, it could be nearing the end of Scorsese’s career, and Leo’s Oscar snubbing could be nearing a mythical status. How awesome would it be if Leo gets his due and Marty gets a parting gift at the same time? That would be so cool to see.

So, we will see what critics and audiences think of Leo in J. Edgar. It very well could sweep everything, but the trailer was a little weak, and I already know exactly what to expect from DiCaprio. If he wins the Oscar this year, good for him. I will be happy that he is no longer called Oscar-less. But to really become the kind of actor that he can be and be viewed as one of the best actors of his generation (which he is), he needs to stop with the shameless Oscar-hunting and do something crazy. A villain role (the Tarantino film might be that), some supporting work, some independent dramas, or an unlikable character. Those are the kinds that win Oscars and the kinds that make critics, Academy voters, and mass audiences most connect with them. He has made some pretty great decisions recently, working with some of the best living directors and being part of some really big hits, but he needs to take a couple risks.

So, that turned out to be more of a rant than an informative article, which I did not intend to happen. But, do you agree? What kinds of roles do you want to see DiCaprio take on in the coming years? Will he win the Oscar this year? Next year? Let me know in the comments.

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