Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Predicted: 8 for 9
Reactions: I suspected that only 7 would get nominated, but the only one I didn’t have in my top 9 was Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (I had Dragon Tattoo). I am slightly upset that Fincher’s film did not make the cut, especially with 9 getting nominated. However, I am much more excited that Bridesmaids did not make it (even though that would have made Apatow an Oscar nominee) and that The Tree of Life got in, basically telling the guilds that they are not the answer to predicting the Oscars. Not a bad group, though. Brad Pitt gets his double nod, but not necessarily the one we were hoping for. Seeing how the rest of the nominees stacked up implies that there could be a legitimate threat or two for The Artist. Last year, 9 of the 10 nominees had screenplay nominations, but this year only 5 of the 9 do. Not sure what that means, but it is an interesting development. Having 9 nominees all having at least 5% of the vote also implies that the votes are a lot more spread out than I would have originally thought. I always figured when a movie sweeps the ceremony that they get like 40% of the vote or something, but the math just simply does not support that, at least not this year. I find this new rule rather interesting, actually. Oh, and never underestimate Stephen Daldry. Two straight films of his that I have said that about, and I still do it. Genius.
Preliminary prediction: The Artist
Best Director
Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne – The Descendants
Martin Scorsese – Hugo
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Fincher in for Malick. I love this. I hate that Fincher is not going to win an Oscar for another worthy film, but Terrence Malick got nominated. I am stoked that they didn’t make it Spielberg or Daldry. I have a feeling that this may be one of those Director-Picture split years that has not happened since 2005.
Preliminary Prediction: Terrence Malick
Best Actor
Demian Bichir – A Better Life
George Clooney – The Descendants
Jean Dujardin – The Artist
Gary Oldman – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt – Moneyball
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had DiCaprio and Fassbender in for Bichir and Oldman. Gary Oldman, Oscar nominee. We can finally say it! Pretty great group, other than that random guy in that horrible movie by the director of the second Twilight Movie. I don’t get that. Clooney may not be as much of a favorite as we suspected with Woodley missing out on Supporting Actress. Pitt and Oldman could pull a shocker. Let’s hope that happens.
Preliminary Prediction: George Clooney
Best Actress
Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis – The Help
Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: There was no real question here as to what the nominations would look like. The guys on E! are stupid for saying that no one thought Mara would get nominated. Tilda Swinton is once again on the outside. Not enough people saw her movie, I guess. Streep’s film got an unexpected second nomination, so at least she has some support from somewhere other than the actors branch. Her third win finally?
Preliminary Prediction: Meryl Streep
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill – Moneyball
Nick Nolte – Warrior
Christopher Plummer – Beginners
Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Albert Brooks in for Max von Sydow. How is that only von Sydow’s second nomination? Anyway, Jonah Hill getting nominated is amazing. The rest are fairly predictable overdue veteran actors, but I just can’t believe that one isn’t Brooks. When was the last time that the unanimous critic favorite in an acting category failed to get even a nomination? I guess Drive is just too cool for the Academy. Same old story…
Preliminary Prediction: Christopher Plummer
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo – The Artist
Jessica Chastain – The Help
Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer – The Help
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Shailene Woodley in for McCarthy. This was just wishful thinking that the Academy would ignore Bridesmaids. Nothing really to say here. I feel bad for Woodley. She deserved to get invited.
Preliminary Prediction: Octavia Spencer
Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Win Win and Young Adult in for Bridesmaids and Margin Call. Stupid Bridesmaids, but Margin Call!!! This is amazing. This reminds me of when 2009’s best film The Messenger was nominated in this category after no precursors. This is awesome. However, with Woody Allen getting his director nod, his win here is almost assured. I have no problem with that.
Preliminary Prediction: Midnight in Paris
Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had The Help in for Tinker Tailor. This was a real surprise, showing that The Help does not have all of the support that we had originally thought. Clooney gets his double nod. Aaron Sorkin gets in two years in a row. Steven Zaillian goes 1 for 2. I like this group.
Preliminary Prediction: The Descendants
Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: I completely nailed this! Other than Drive not getting in, I cannot complain about any of these nominees.
Preliminary Prediction: War Horse
Art Direction
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Anonymous in for Midnight in Paris. This just shows that Paris has a fair amount of support. Can Woody make a serious run at Best Picture?
Preliminary Prediction: Hugo
Costume Design
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had The Help and My Week with Marilyn in for Anonymous and Jane Eyre. The latter certainly deserved its nomination (and the win), but I am so mad that I chose the wrong category for Anonymous! I knew it would show up somewhere…
Preliminary Prediction: W.E.
Sound Mixing
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had The Tree of Life and The Artist in for Transformers and Moneyball. This is normally a spot for the Best Picture winners. Each BP winner was nominated here since 2006. Could this be a telling factor in the race?
Preliminary Prediction: War Horse
Editing
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Tinker Tailor in for The Descendants. It seems that the Academy liked The Descendants more than Sideways even with it getting the crucial editing nod. I am shocked that Tinker Tailor didn’t get in here with the support it got elsewhere. Oh well. I hope Dragon Tattoo or Moneyball takes this.
Preliminary Prediction: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Sound Editing
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: Yeah, I had Tintin, Super 8, and Planet of the Apes instead of Drive, Dragon Tattoo, and Hugo. This is a big spot for Hugo. It basically got every possible Artistic/Technical nomination. Drive at least got one nomination in one of its least deserving spots. Whatever, Oscar…
Preliminary Prediction: War Horse
Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Tree of Life and X-Men in for Real Steel and Transformers. Yep, that is three noms for the Michael Bay disaster. Nice.
Preliminary Prediction: Harry Potter
Makeup
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady
Predicted: 1 for 3
Reactions: I had The Artist and Anonymous in for Iron Lady and Harry Potter. Well, I went 0 for 3 last year, so this is something.
Preliminary Prediction: Albert Nobbs
Song
“Man or Muppet” – The Muppets
“Real in Rio” – Rio
Predicted: 0 for 2
Reactions: I predicted 5 nominees, including songs from The Help, Albert Nobbs, We Bought a Zoo, Cars 2, and the wrong song from The Muppets. I love these two songs, though. They are both the best in their films, which are both stocked full with great original songs. Well done, but the Academy needs to fix the rules here. Only nominating two is pretty dumb.
Preliminary Prediction:The Muppets
Score
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Dragon Tattoo in for Tinker Tailor. Double nom for John Williams? What else is new. Shame that Dragon Tattoo and Drive got snubbed here.
Preliminary Prediction: The Artist
Documentary
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Project Nim and We Were Here in for Hell and Back Again and Pina. Just took a stab, really. They always snub the best doc, and this year, the best ones were supposedly Project Nim and George Harrison: Living in a Material World. Well done, Academy. Your new rules still don’t work.
Preliminary Prediction: Undefeated
Foreign Language Film
Bullhead
Footnote
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar
A Separation
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Black Bread and Where Do We Go Now? in for Bullhead and Footnote. Haven’t seen any of these, but I always have a random gut feeling that there will be an upset, and I am right almost every year. Do not be fooled just because A Separation got a screenplay nod that it is a lock in this category. Ask Guillermo Del Toro if that is the case. One of the movies is about Nazis, and we know how Oscar feels about those movies. Upset!
Preliminary Prediction: In Darkness
Animated Feature
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: I had Tintin (obviously), Arthur Christmas, and Cars 2 in for A Cat in Paris (what?), Kung Fu Panda 2, and Puss in Boots. Well, I got one of the no name films right. What happened to Tintin and the surefire Spielberg nomination? I love that Kung Fu Panda got the nod, though. Such a cool movie. Poor Winnie the Pooh. Oh well. The director of Pirates of the Caribbean is going to be an Oscar winner. Nice.
Preliminary Prediction: Rango
Overall predictions: 72/104; 69.23% (67.96% in 2011)
Without the last 5 categories: 60/79; 75.95% (70.37% in 2011)
On the Big 8 categories: 35/44; 79.55% (84.44% in 2011)
So, I did better predicting everything but the main categories this year, which is a change of pace. The arts and techs were a tad easier since the Best Picture contenders are almost all visual spectacles. Not bad. I am pretty proud about how this turned out.
10 coolest first-time nominees (last year had so many better options):
1. Gary Oldman
2. Jonah Hill
3. Rooney Mara
4. Jessica Chastain
5. Kristen Wiig (even though I hate her movie)
6. JC Chandor
7. Berenice Bejo
8. Chris Columbus
9. Jean Dujardin
10. Gore Verbinski
10 worst snubs:
1. Drive in all categories (especially Best Editing, Best Original Score, and Best Supporting Actor)
2. Michael Shannon for Best Actor
3. Michael Fassbender for Best Actor
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo for Best Original Score and Best Director
5. Brad Pitt for Best Supporting Actor
6. Super 8 for Best Sound Editing
7. Winnie the Pooh for Best Animated Feature
8. Carey Mulligan for Best Supporting Actress (for Shame and Drive)
9. Carnage for Best Adapted Screenplay
10. Berenice Bejo for Best Actress
If there were five nominees for Best Picture, they probably would have been The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, and Midnight in Paris. If there were 10, it probably would have added in Bridesmaids. Maybe Dragon Tattoo with all its guild and technical category support. Seeing a concrete number would have been nice. Anyway, it was a nominations morning filled with excitement, both good and bad. Most of the important nominations I was hoping for (Jonah Hill, Rooney Mara, Terrence Malick) were taken care of. Dragon Tattoo missing out on almost everything is discouraging, but it is all made up for with Margin Call getting a nomination. Seriously, it is the best original screenplay since 2009. I can’t wait to see what the next month brings to the race. Maybe the SAGs will give us a surprise. Maybe the DGA will give the award to someone other than Hazanavicius, since the category is filled with amazing, proven directors. Maybe the BAFTAs will help someone’s cause in the acting categories (do not forget that they almost single-handedly anointed Tilda Swinton and Marion Cotillard as winners in the same year). We shall see. I love this time of year.
Stay tuned for our Fourth Annual Oscar Challenge. How do you think the Academy did this year? Who are you predicting to win? Let us know in the comments.
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